College football Week 5 odds feature this season’s first legitimate circle-this-game-in-red-Sharpie matchup: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama, in Tuscaloosa.
How big is it? To answer that question, it’s best to go to BetMGM’s Beau Rivage in Biloxi, Miss., the heart of SEC country.
Sportsbook director Carl Johnson had an answer that might surprise you.
“It will be like the Super Bowl for us,” Johnson said. “It doesn’t have the run-up on early bets like the Super Bowl. But come Friday afternoon, everyone will be getting tickets in on this game. It will be huge.”
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Georgia-Alabama and more, in this week’s college football betting nuggets.
Early Tide
On Wednesday night, Caesars Sports had Georgia a 2-point road favorite for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET showdown vs. Alabama. The Bulldogs opened -2 last week and spent time at -2.5 and -1.5, so the point spread is now just splitting the difference.
The home team getting points — limited as those points are — is attractive to early bettors.
“This will be the first time Alabama has been a home underdog since 2007, Nick Saban’s first year there,” Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “It’s just a massive game. It’s NFL Junior. I expect to see a lot of Alabama money.
“Even with Saban leaving, the Alabama love continues to show up, week after week.”
Feazel rightly noted this game has ramifications far beyond this week.
“It’s gonna make a big splash in the futures market,” he said, alluding to College Football Playoff odds. “Does Georgia become a bigger favorite? Or does Alabama move closer to Texas?
Caesars Sports currently has Georgia and Ohio State as +370 co-favorites to win the national title. Texas follows at +450, then Alabama at +650.
Colorado @ UCF and more: College Football Week 5 Super Six
College Football Rocks On FOX
This week’s Big Noon Kickoff pregame show on FOX is for the Colorado vs. Central Florida game, with the crew heading to Orlando, Fla. However, Colorado-UCF will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, rather than noon ET.
Deion Sanders — Coach Prime, if you will — along with son/QB Shedeur Sanders and two-way standout Travis Hunter are the big draw for this matchup. Colorado is 3-1 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS), coming off a wild home overtime win vs. Baylor.
But Central Florida is 3-0 SU and ATS. And the Knights are two-touchdown favorites against the Buffaloes.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, early action is solidly on the Buffs. Colorado is taking 81% of spread tickets/71% of spread money.
On the moneyline, which on Wednesday night stood at UCF -575/Colorado +425, ticket count was close to even. But 67% of moneyline dollars were on Colorado to pull the big upset.
At +425, that’d be a nice payout: A $100 bet would profit $425 (total payout $525).
On-Campus Sharp Side College football betting expert Paul Stone is involved with two games on Saturday’s docket. But he’s steering clear of the Georgia-Alabama contest.
“On one side, Alabama is playing well and will likely be a home underdog for the first time in 17 years,” Stone said. “On the other, Georgia is 45-2 straight up since the start of the 2021 season. I don’t care to step in front of either of these SEC juggernauts.”
That’s sage advice for everyone: Just because it’s a huge game doesn’t mean you have to bet on it.
Sit back, watch and enjoy it.
Stone is backing No. 23 Kansas State as a 5-point home favorite vs. No. 20 Oklahoma State, at noon ET Saturday. Both teams are coming off losses in their Big 12 openers. K-State got drilled by BYU 38-7 on the road, and Oklahoma State lost at home to Utah 22-19.
The Wildcats gave up touchdowns on a 30-yard fumble return and a 90-yard punt return. Stone believes K-State will clean things up significantly this week at home.
He notes that Kansas State covered its last eight games following a straight-up loss, dating to the 2021 Texas Bowl.
“Oklahoma State entered this season as one of the nation’s most experienced teams. But the Cowboys have been an enigma in my mind,” Stone said. “All-America running back Ollie Gordon is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and their veteran offensive line has no-showed to this point.
“I like quarterback Avery Johnson and Kansas State to rebound at home.”
Like Kansas State, Big Ten member Nebraska is coming off an outright loss as a betting favorite. The Cornhuskers were -7.5 at home against Illinois and lost 31-24 in overtime.
Stone expects Nebraska to take care of business Saturday as a 10-point favorite at Purdue, in another noon ET start.
“In its two games this season against FBS opponents — Notre Dame and Oregon State — Purdue has been outscored by a combined 104-28,” Stone said. “The Boilermakers are arguably the worst Power Four team in the country, and I think Nebraska rolls in this spot.”
CFB Week 5: Alabama vs. Georgia best bets, odds & predictions
College Football Quick Hitters
Feazel provided his insights on two other noteworthy matchups in college football Week 5 odds:
- No. 15 Louisville vs. No. 16 Notre Dame: “Right now, we’re seeing some Louisville action, and action more geared toward the Under, a low-scoring game.” Midweek, the total is down to 45, after opening at 48.5. And despite the Cardinals seeing early tickets/money, the point spread is up to Notre Dame -6.5 from a -5.5 opener. “I expect this not to go through 7.”
- No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. No. 23 Kansas State: Caesars opened Kansas State -5.5, went to -6 for a few hours Monday and has been at -5 since. “We’ve seen some action on Oklahoma State. We’re likely gonna be K-State Wildcats fans come Saturday.”
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
Caesars Sports has taken a couple of low-five-figure plays so far in the college football Week 5 odds market.
- $17,631 on Miami -19 vs. Virginia Tech. Potential profit of $16,028 (total payout $33,659).
- $11,600 on Boston College -13 vs. Western Kentucky. Potential profit of $10,545 (total payout $22,145).
By Saturday night, there’ll surely be a tidal wave of big bets on Georgia-Alabama, particularly at the aforementioned Beau Rivage in Biloxi.
Enjoy all the games, and wager responsibly.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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