2024 NFL odds: Back Bengals missing the playoffs; wait on MVP bet

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Will Hill

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Another week is in the books. And per usual, NFL fans are left wondering, “What exactly do we know about this sport?”

For the third straight week, the biggest underdog of the week won the game outright, as the Bengals lost to the Commanders as 7.5-point favorites on Monday night.

The theme of the league so far has been parity. For the first time this year, we have a double-digit spread, with the Patriots–49ers game. This illustrates how bunched together these teams are.

Even the 3-0, back-to-back champion Kansas City Chiefs have merely squeaked by their opponents the first few weeks.

And as far as awards go, we have a new favorite for NFL MVP.

Josh Allen has had a dominant September and has catapulted to +225 after his outstanding performance Monday night against the Jaguars. Sam Darnold, another quarterback whose squad is 3-0, is also surging up the oddsboard and is now 30-1 to win MVP.

Neither bet appeals to me, though.

Allen’s odds feel too short for a season in which a lot can and will happen between now and early January, when the regular season ends. Darnold has played extremely well and is a great story, but winning MVP still seems too far-fetched to actually wager on. Ultimately, no bets for me in this market … yet.

But if I had to bet anyone for MVP, I’d actually take a shot at Aaron Rodgers at 17-1, considering the Jets have a fairly manageable upcoming schedule.

Rodgers looked like the player who’s already won a few of these awards, as he was impressive against a tough Patriots defense last week on Thursday night. If Rodgers can lead the Jets to a Monday night victory against the Bills in a few weeks, the narrative will change in a hurry. But it’s a long season and no need to force anything — even though I think the Rodgers bet is very intriguing.

With all that in mind, let’s get to what I actually do like enough to make a wager on.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Cardinals vs Commanders & Raiders’ 1st Half

Cincinnati Bengals -140 to Miss the Playoffs (DraftKings)

The Bengals were a trendy pick this summer to go from worst to first in the AFC North. That was partially because of recent deep playoff runs and the return of Joe Burrow after he missed a good chunk of last season.

But a big reason was also their last-place schedule.

The path was there, or at least it seemed to be. With home games against the Patriots and Commanders, as well as games against the Titans and Panthers, bettors had confidence Burrow and the Bengals could bank some easy wins.

Well, they’ve already played a couple of those “easy” games and are 0-3. They still have to play six tough AFC North games, as well as matchups against the Cowboys, Eagles and Chargers.

In order to make the playoffs, the Bengals will have to go 9-5 or 10-4 the rest of the way. The league’s worst defense in yards per play allowed last year is once again showing major holes.

Cincy missing the playoffs again is a good bet.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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