A week after losing to the New England Patriots as 8-point home favorites and turning NFL Survivor leagues upside down, the Cincinnati Bengals now head to Arrowhead to face the world champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET this Sunday, and millions of American dollars will bounce the betting line around over the next few days. That’s what happens when you have Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes on opposite sidelines.
Nothing drives NFL betting opinions quite like star quarterbacks.
“The action is very good so far,” Westgate SuperBook executive director John Murray told FOX Sports from Las Vegas. “We opened Chiefs -4.5 on Sunday night, and we were at Chiefs -6 by Monday morning. The Bengals support started to show [Wednesday] and now we’re sitting at Chiefs -5.
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“It’ll be one of our highest handle games for the weekend. So far, it’s Bengals-Chiefs and Raiders–Ravens. And the only reason for Raiders-Ravens is because of all the parlays with Baltimore and Baltimore moneyline.
“They’re betting both ways on Bengals-Chiefs, which is ideal.”
Burrow’s Bengals are a polarizing bunch in this spot for two very distinct reasons.
No. 1, they’re 1-8 straight up (SU) in the first two regular-season games since Burrow was drafted first overall. No. 2, the former Heisman Trophy winner is 3-1 SU and against the spread (ATS) against Kansas City.
The trends — they are colliding.
“That’s now twice in three years I’ve lost a Survivor entry on the Bengals in Week 1,” Murray said. “I still think it’s too early to sound the alarm, though. They lost that game because of turnovers that came at terrible times. As long as Burrow stays healthy this season, they’ll be around in January.”
I believe the latter trend is much more meaningful. A four-game sample size is obviously far from large, but Burrow has been damn good against the Chiefs defense. In those four games, he’s thrown for over 1,200 yards with nine touchdowns, three interceptions and a passer rating of 107.
It’s not like Mahomes is a slouch, either. All he’s done in six career games against Cincinnati is throw for almost 1,700 yards with 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
But Burrow has made you money head-to-head — period.
Cowboys, 49ers sit below Chiefs, Bears ranked below Bucs in Nick’s Tiers
You’ll also be paying a betting premium on Kansas City as long as the Mahomes-Travis Kelce-Andy Reid trifecta is churning butter. It’s extremely reminiscent of the Tom Brady-Rob Gronkowski-Bill Belichick Patriots.
“Mahomes and the Chiefs get the same treatment as Brady and those Patriots teams in their heyday,” Murray admitted. “They are at that level in terms of on-field success, the way the public bets them every week and the way things seemingly go their way the majority of the time.”
To me, this game has all the makings of a 24-20 classic either way. I don’t believe the Bengals are as bad as their last game and let’s remember, if Isaiah Likely’s foot was an inch shorter, we could be previewing two winless teams.
There’s a very strong chance I’ll be on Bengals +5.5.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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