MLB Rookie Power Rankings: Skenes, Merrill or Chourio for NL ROY?

Rowan Kavner

MLB Writer

For a while, it looked like Paul Skenes would cruise to the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year Award. That’s not quite so clear now, by no fault of his own.

The All-Star starter still might win, but late-season surges from 21-year-old Jackson Merrill and 20-year-old Jackson Chourio are making the race one of the most captivating to watch down the stretch.

Has either done enough to dethrone Skenes from the No. 1 spot on our top 10?

Below are the latest rookie power rankings, which feature two new players cracking the list and plenty of movement entering the final month of the year.

(Note: The rankings below are updated once a month throughout the season. While some outlets have players such as Lawrence Butler, Xavier Edwards and Matt Waldron listed as rookies, they are no longer rookie eligible by MLB standards.)

Who’s surging?

Spencer Arrighetti (SP, Houston Astros)
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, Atlanta Braves)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, Chicago Cubs)
Connor Norby (2B/3B, Miami Marlins)
Will Wagner (2B, Toronto Blue Jays)

The Spencers are dealing lately for their respective playoff hopefuls. Arrighetti struck out more than 10 batters in three of his five August starts while earning Rookie of the Month honors, while Schwellenbach has been a model of consistency, allowing three runs or fewer in seven straight starts. Crow-Armstrong is looking more and more comfortable at the plate as a major-leaguer, hitting .324 since July 27. Neither Norby nor Wagner will log the at-bats to supplant anyone on the top 10, but they’re both surging in new places. Norby, traded from Baltimore to Miami in the Orioles’ deal for Trevor Rogers, posted a 1.002 OPS in his last 12 games of August for the Marlins. Wagner, acquired by the Blue Jays in Houston’s deal for Yusei Kikuchi, just had a five-hit day to end the month and entered Tuesday hitting .370 since Toronto called him up on Aug. 12.

Honorable mention

Luis Gil (SP, New York Yankees)
Previous ranking: 7

Gil enjoyed an absolutely bonkers month of May in which he went 6-0 with a 0.70 ERA. But over his past 10 starts dating back to June 20, he has a 5.84 ERA as opponents have an .822 OPS against him. Gil started to get back on track in July before tailing off last month, though his August struggles with command could have had something to do with the lower back injury that landed him on the injured list. He should return soon, and when he does, it’ll be interesting to see the role that awaits him on the playoff-bound Yankees.

The top 10

10. Mason Miller (RP, Oakland Athletics)
Previous ranking: 8

Miller has run into some trouble lately allowing 10 baserunners over his past three outings and watching his ERA climb to 2.52 in the process, the highest it’s been since April. Still, the flamethwoer remains one of the most formidable bullpen arms in the sport, and his absurd 42% strikeout rate — which leads all MLB relievers — still deems him worthy of a spot on this list.

9. Tyler Fitzgerald (SS, San Francisco Giants)
Previous ranking: 9

Fitzgerald doesn’t have the same number of plate appearances as most of baseball’s top rookies, but what he has done since mid-July can’t be ignored. He leads all qualified rookies in average, slugging and OPS. In just 76 games played, his 14 homers rank fifth among all rookies and his 16 steals rank sixth (for perspective, every rookie ahead of him on the home run list has played in at least 110 games while every rookie ahead of him on the steals list has played in at least 98 games).

8. Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals)
Previous ranking: 10

There’s something to be said for Winn’s consistency. Beyond playing a terrific shortstop, he has batted over .250 every month this season and was better offensively in August (.292 average, .814 OPS) than any previous month this year. He’s tied with Jackson Merrill for the most hits among all rookies, and the value he’s providing on both sides of the ball has led to him leading all rookies in bWAR.

7. Austin Wells (C, New York Yankees)
Previous ranking: unranked

Wells has emerged as an integral part of a Yankees lineup that needed more firepower behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. The Yankees catcher had an OPS over .900 in both July and August, most often hitting from the cleanup spot of the Yankees lineup. Though he has struggled against lefties, he gets on base at a high rate, is a good pitch framer and has been one of baseball’s top hitting catchers in the second half.

6. Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
Previous ranking: 5

Like Wells, Abreu does his best work when he doesn’t have to face lefties. In fact, he tends to mash against righties, as evidenced by his .886 OPS against them. He can be prone to whiffs and strikeouts, but he hits the ball exceptionally hard and has graded out well defensively in the outfield. Overall, he leads all qualified American League rookies in batting average, slugging, OPS and doubles.

5. Shota Imanaga (SP, Chicago Cubs)
Previous Ranking: 6

While the Cubs lefty hasn’t looked quite the way he did when he was mowing through opponents the first half of the year, he has still allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his past 11 starts. Imanaga’s 11 wins, 1.05 WHIP, 3.9% walk rate, 148 strikeouts and 2.7 fWAR all rank in the top two among all qualified rookie starters, while his 3.14 ERA ranks fourth.

4. Colton Cowser (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
Previous ranking: 2

With a strikeout rate over 30% and a barrel rate at 90%, Cowser’s season can be prone to peaks and valleys. It’s been more of the latter of late, but he remains the front-runner to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award in a relatively open competition. He leads all AL rookies in homers (20) and runs scored (68) and ranks second in doubles (21), RBIs (62), slugging (.447) and OPS (.774). By FanGraphs WAR, the only rookie more valuable than him this season has been Merrill, in part because his contributions are not solely with the bat in his hand; Cowser’s 11 outs above average in the outfield are more than the rest of Baltimore’s defenders combined.

3. Jackson Chourio (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)
Previous Ranking: unranked

If he played in the AL, he’d likely be the favorite to win Rookie of the Year. And if not for a slow start to the 20-year-old’s season, we’d be talking more about a three-man race in the National League. Chourio’s OPS sat at .575 on June 1. Three months later, it’s now over .800. Among rookies with at least 400 at-bats, only Merrill’s is higher — and not by much. Chourio is one home run away from a 20/20 season and ranks in the top three among rookies in hits, runs, homers and RBIs. Over the three months from June 2-Sept. 2, Chourio has the highest batting average and third-highest OPS in the NL — not just among rookies but all NL players. He has a .981 OPS in the second half of the season.

2. Paul Skenes (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Previous Ranking: 1

The All-Star Game starter remains not only the best rookie pitcher in baseball but arguably the best pitcher, period. Among all MLB starters who’ve thrown at least 100 innings this year, Skenes ranks second in ERA, fourth in strikeout rate and fifth in WHIP. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 19 starts, and his 4.7 bWAR leads all rookies despite not getting called up until May 11. There doesn’t appear to be an immediate plan to shut him down, so four more strong starts down the stretch in September should make the Rookie of the Year race captivating, especially considering the player who jumped into the top spot is showing no signs of slowing down.

1. Jackson Merrill (OF, San Diego Padres)
Previous ranking: 4

There’s a new odds-on favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and it’s a 21-year-old converted shortstop playing his first pro season in center field. That Merrill has handled the defensive switch admirably is noteworthy in itself; that he also happens to lead all rookie hitters in hits (tied), homers, triples (tied) and RBIs is nothing short of remarkable. Among MLB rookies with at least 400 at-bats this year, Merrill leads in average, slugging and OPS, but it’s his clutch gene that sets him apart. Merrill has six game-tying or go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later this year. In late and close situations, his OPS is over 1.000. And by fWAR, he has been the most valuable rookie in baseball this season. He’s done enough to capture the top spot as the Padres’ late-game catalyst.

Also considered: Michael Busch (1B, Chicago Cubs), Tobias Myers (SP, Milwaukee Brewers), Gavin Stone (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers), Colt Keith (2B, Detroit Tigers), Jhonkensy Noel (OF, Cleveland Guardians), Joey Estes (SP, Oakland Athletics), Ceddanne Rafaela (SS/CF, Boston Red Sox), Cade Smith (RP, Cleveland Guardians), Hunter Gaddis (RP, Cleveland Guardians), Spencer Horwitz (2B, Toronto Blue Jays)

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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