With so much parity in the sport this year, is there a clear top club in baseball right now?
The Dodgers lead the majors in wins, the Phillies have held a comfortable division lead since May and the Yankees and Orioles have jockeyed for the top spot in the competitive American League East race all year. But Hall of Famer John Smoltz offered another potential answer.
As part of our weekly conversation with the MLB on FOX analyst, Smoltz shared his thoughts on the best team in the sport, the player he’d build his franchise around right now, the division race he has his eye on, whether he thinks the Braves will hold onto the final wild-card spot and more.
Kavner: If you were starting a franchise right now from scratch, what player would you choose to build around?
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Smoltz: Well, if we exclude Shohei Ohtani, the conversation starts going toward a Bobby Witt Jr. The narrative has changed with Ronald Acuña Jr. because now he’s had two knee surgeries. If he was completely healthy, I would think he would be a priority for a lot of clubs with what he can do. Obviously, Aaron Judge [is another to consider], but if you’re starting a club, that means you want that player for the next 15-17 years. So, it’s hard to pass up on a Bobby Witt Jr. and what he’s doing already in his career.
Kavner: With Ohtani fast approaching a historic 50/50 campaign, do you think Francisco Lindor still has a chance to pass him for NL MVP with a big September?
Smoltz: That’s where that conversation comes in: if Lindor helps the Mets get to the postseason when nobody thought they had a chance, especially with their start. I felt like he was going to do this at some point, maybe in the last year and a half. It’s been a tough transition for him, but I think now with the year he’s having, Mets fans are finally relieved to see he can be the guy that they thought they got when they signed him to that megadeal.
So, he’s definitely going to get a lot of votes, but it’s going to be hard to pass Ohtani based on what he’s doing. I know he’s a DH, and there’s going to be a lot of conversation around that, but he’s doing things that no DH has ever done before. So, I think this is going to be exciting down the stretch, but it would take a historic September for Francisco Lindor, or anybody for that matter, to catch Ohtani.
How much do you think a player’s value to his respective team — like in the case of Lindor for the Mets and Witt for the Royals — should be a factor when people are considering these MVP votes?
Smoltz: I think it’s a tiebreaker. I’ve heard arguments on both sides, and I get it. You take Ohtani off the Dodgers, they’re still going to be really good, right? You take Lindor off the Mets, I don’t know if they’re going to be in the playoffs. You can make that argument for certain teams, like with the Atlanta Braves and Marcell Ozuna. They’re hanging on by a thread, but they wouldn’t even be close if it weren’t for Ozuna. So, I think it’s part of the conversation and the narrative that can be for you, but could never really be against you because you’re being punished for playing on a really good team.
I think the MVP has been stretched in so many ways. The definition of the MVP award has been, you could probably get six different definitions of it, but it really should represent the best year a player has had in that league, regardless of the team they play on. I would navigate that toward a tiebreaker. If it’s close and the Braves or the Mets were to happen to get in because of those individuals, then I would say that you could vote for that as a tiebreaker.
Shohei Ohtani collects stolen bases 45 & 46
We’re finally starting to see some separation in the division races. With less than a month left, which division race are you most intrigued by?
Smoltz: I’m most intrigued by Baltimore–New York because those two have been going back and forth the entire year. I think for those teams, based on the way that they’re structured, it would be huge to get the bye — set up the rotation, secure one of the top two records, but more importantly, win that division and have home field. So that, to me, is the most intriguing.
The [AL] Central, of course, is still [intriguing] with the Guardians doing what they’re doing, kind of hanging in there. That’s a three-team race. But I think for the most part, I’d be all over watching the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees.
Entering Tuesday, the Mets are only a half-game out and the Cubs are 3.5 out. Do you think the Braves still have what it takes to hold off the Mets and maybe even the Cubs there for the final wild-card spot?
Smoltz: It’s gonna be interesting. I think the Mets are going through a pretty tough schedule coming up, so they gotta survive that. Each team has gone through the gauntlet. Philadelphia just got through going through the gauntlet in their schedule and they survived it. So, I think it’s going to be interesting when you look at who they have left and what they’re trying to do. The Mets have, I think, seven games against the Phillies. That is something that the Braves are hoping for, that the Phillies get hot, right? Because the division is pretty much gone for the Braves, so you’re rooting for certain teams you would never root for before.
But you got to take care of your own business right now. The Braves are at home. They’re playing a dangerous Rockies team that has nothing to play for but to spoil people’s years. You’ve got to execute when you have the schedule in front of you.
Highlights from Mets’ win over Red Sox
We talked last week about how no team was trending toward 100 wins. When you look at the potential playoff field right now, who do you consider the best team in baseball?
Smoltz: The best team in baseball has fluctuated so many different times. But I’m telling you, I said this a month into the season when everybody was worried about the Houston Astros, you can make an argument that they might be best suited for the best run in the baseball tournament because they’re getting healthier. Their rotation is pretty darn good and they’re getting healthier. So, you can make an argument that Houston might be that sneaky pick that nobody would have picked as the best team right now based on all the things they’ve got going for them. I don’t think we could have ever said that two months ago, one month ago.
Everyone’s going to point toward the Philadelphia Phillies, and I still do. I think the Philadelphia Phillies have the roster to win it all. So do the Dodgers, but the Dodgers have to figure out their starting rotation. If they don’t figure that out and get healthy, then they’re just as vulnerable as anybody else.
John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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