It doesn’t get much better than 5-1.
That’s what we did with our best bets last week and, to be quite honest with you, I’m still upset that Penn State didn’t cover -17.5 against Illinois.
We turn the page, though, and ramp up for another jam-packed weekend of football.
I’ve got three college football bets and two NFL plays this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.
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Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (13-5, +7.5 units)
No. 14 Clemson (-15, O/U 46.5) @ Florida State
The Seminoles are bad, but are they this bad? I’m willing to find out. Florida State was favored in this spot in the summer and now the number is north of two touchdowns. Here’s hoping for a spark thanks to a much-needed move on from starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. Clemson has certainly impressed so far, and the Tigers could roll. But sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.
PICK: Florida State (+15) to lose by fewer than 15 points, or win outright
Indiana (-13.5, O/U 41.5) @ Northwestern
The Hoosiers have already scored 42, 42, 52 and 77 this season. So why is the total only 41.5? Well, because Northwestern’s offense is atrocious and wind will play a factor this Saturday. If you haven’t seen the Kitties’ temporary football field, it’s basically in Lake Michigan with minimal wind resistance. I love me some Indiana, but 20 mile-per-hour winds should limit points.
PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined
The undefeated Canes survived a last-second heave against Virginia Tech last Friday night and let’s just say the locker room was euphoric afterward. That’s because those are the games Miami always lost under Mario Cristobal. I think you’ll get a laser-focused Canes bunch this Saturday night, and my gut says Miami will roll into California ready to whoop some you know what.
PICK: Miami (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points
Browns @ Commanders (-3, O/U 43.5)
Jayden Daniels has been unbelievable. The rookie quarterback has completed an insane 82% of his passes and Washington just pulled off back-to-back upsets as 7.5 and 3.5-point underdogs. However, the football team formerly known as the Football Team is now a noticeable favorite against a solid Browns defense. This won’t be popular, but I’ll bite on the role reversal.
PICK: Browns (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Saints vs Chiefs & Niners Team Total
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, O/U 43.5)
I love when the sportsbooks hang a favorite just under a touchdown. Please understand there’s a reason this line is sitting -6 or -6.5 and not -7. If you want to wait for clarity on rookie receiver Malik Nabers, that’s cool, but I already bet New York +6.5 (-105) and still like it if he doesn’t play. This Seattle team is still a little smoke and mirrors, and I don’t think the Seahawks win by margin.
PICK: Giants (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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