Last weekend was no bueno.
It’s been a decent season to date, but bets on Miami Florida and the Cleveland Browns never had a chance if we’re being honest. Hand up, those were total whiffs. The Clemson field goal with 1:55 left to go up 16 was fun, too.
Sigh.
Anyways… I’ve got two college football bets and three NFL plays this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.
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Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (14-9, +4.1 units)
No. 1 Texas (-14.5, O/U 49) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma
The Red River game brings me so much joy. As great as Texas is — the Longhorns are my highest power rated team in the country — this game tends to be wacky. The Sooners are getting healthier on offense and they’ve had ample time to acclimate a system around freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. The Horns should obviously win, but this feels like a lot of points.
PICK: Oklahoma (+14.5) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points, or win outright
No. 2 Ohio State (-3, O/U 53) @ No. 3 Oregon
I think Oregon is very good, but Ohio State can be great. The Buckeyes defense is strong at every level and their two NFL safeties are out of this world. Respected bettors took Oregon +4 and +3.5, and now you’re seeing some resistance on Ohio State -3. There’s great two-way action so far. I think Ohio State’s running game and defense will be the deciding factor.
PICK: Ohio State (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Chargers (-3, O/U 35.5) @ Broncos
This game certainly isn’t going to win a beauty pageant. It will feature two of the better defenses in the league in very strong situations. The Broncos get a Chargers offense without a lot of downfield threats, and the Chargers get a Broncos offense with a rookie quarterback. Jim Harbaugh loves to play “field position” against inexperience, and I expect a rock fight with tons of punts.
PICK: Under 35.5 points scored by both teams combined
NFL Week 6 Super Six: Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions & Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Bears (-1.5, O/U 44.5) vs. Jaguars
I bet Chicago against the L.A. Rams two weeks ago and felt lucky to escape with a win and cover. Then the Bears rolled the putrid Panthers, so the market made them favorites in the London game. I’m just not there. Jacksonville knows this trip far too well, and I think the Jaguars will be able to run the ball and open up play action. If Trevor Lawrence protects the ball, they’ll win.
PICK: Jaguars ML +105
This one definitely won’t be popular. It seems easy to lay a small number against a Dallas defense missing a couple important bodies. Yet we ignore Detroit’s defense giving up 516 yards of offense to Seattle. Hmmm. Maybe I’m crazy, but I think Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have a massive day and the Cowboys do just enough on defense to pull the upset.
PICK: Cowboys (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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