Let’s start with the obvious: Why are the 2-6 Jets favored at home against the 6-2 Texans?
If you’re not a gambler, you’re probably stunned that a team that has lost five straight games is favored over a legit contender in the AFC.
But if you take a peek under the hood — well, you can see why the Jets are favored.
Houston’s underlying metrics this season are not very impressive, despite the record. After adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon this offseason, the Houston offense was expected to make a leap, but that hasn’t happened.
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The Texans are at 5.4 yards per play, which is exactly where they ended up last year. The offensive line has been a disaster, with LT Laremy Tunsil leading all linemen in penalties and guard Kenyon Green grading out as the worst of 77 guards who have played in the league this season, per Pro Football Focus.
Let’s drill down on Houston’s six victories.
It had two non-covers in the division against the Colts, a victory over Caleb Williams in his second career start (first on the road), and wins over Jacksonville, New England and Buffalo.
The Texans raced out to an early lead in that Buffalo game. And Nico Collins, who left at halftime due to a hamstring, hasn’t played since. They were leading 20-3, but then the offense struggled badly without Collins. They ended up winning on a last-second field goal.
Houston is now without Collins and Diggs and on a short week against a desperate Jets team that, at 2-6, has little to no hope for the playoffs.
Historically, first-time head coaches struggle on Thursday Night Football, as the short week creates chaos that’s difficult to prepare for. Compounding matters, the Jets are banged up in the secondary, with two safeties likely to miss the game. And it’s looking doubtful for WR Allen Lazard, LB C.J. Mosley and perhaps guard AVT.
The Texans defense is coming off a win over the Colts in which they generated a 60% pressure rate, which is tied for the highest by a defense in a game this season. Anthony Richardson — who is mobile — was pressured a staggering 24 times. Aaron Rodgers is not mobile.
How should Aaron Rodgers respond to criticism after the Jets’ loss to the Patriots?
Last year, the Jets were 3.5-point underdogs at home against Houston. In the rain, the game was scoreless at the half and the Jets defense rattled C.J. Stroud, as he was 10-for-23 passing for 91 yards. That was his worst game of the season. On the other side, Zach Wilson threw for 301 yards in the rain. Stroud ultimately was knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter with a concussion.
As bad as the Jets have been this season, expect them to show up here at home. Their defense, specifically, is an advantageous spot against a limping offense.
Short of a monster performance from Joe Mixon, which is possibly against a leaky run defense, the Jets are going to win this one.
Put me down for 24-14.
PICK: Jets (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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