A game in an unusual time slot might be among the biggest decisions in the NFL Week 5 odds market. Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets meet the undefeated Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in London, at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Or as we call it here in Las Vegas: zero-dark-thirty.
OK, it’s only 6:30 a.m., but that’s still early.
“The market is so high on the Vikings and so low on the Jets. So we’re seeing a lot of Vikings money at this point,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said on Wednesday night.
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on a handful of games, as we dive into NFL Week 4 betting nuggets.
London Calling
On the lookahead line a week ago, the Jets were 1-point favorites vs. the Vikings. Then New York laid a huge Week 4 egg, losing 10-9 as 8-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos. That left New York at 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) through four weeks.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is the only team running perfect SU and ATS, at 4-0 on both counts. In Week 4 at Green Bay, the Vikes were 2.5-point road underdogs and, after building a 28-0 lead, barely held on for a 31-29 victory.
So when Caesars reopened Jets-Vikings on Sunday evening, it was at Minnesota -2.5, where the spread remained on Wednesday night. Sam Darnold & Co. are proving popular for this matchup at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
“It will be a big decision. People aren’t believing in the Jets and are believing in the Vikings,” Feazel said. “It will be interesting to see if the line gets to Vikings -3. If it does, I believe we’ll see Jets pushback.”
Herd Hierarchy: Vikings reach top 3, Commanders leap into Colin’s Top 10 of Week 5
NFL Rocks On FOX
In recent years, it’s been rare to say a Washington Commanders game has intrigue. But 2024 is already shaping up much differently, with Washington out to a 3-1 SU and ATS start.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels is fueling the early success, while moving to the favorite in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. Washington’s home game against the Cleveland Browns is catching bettors’ eyes, for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Commanders opened -2.5 and quickly moved to -3/-3.5 on Sunday evening. Since then, the line has toggled between Washington -3.5/-3 a few times and stood at -3.5 (-102) on Wednesday night.
Early point-spread money isn’t particularly heavy on Washington, at 57%. But the Commanders are landing 76% of early spread tickets at DraftKings.
Some DK customers are instead opting for the moneyline, banking on Washington just to win the game, regardless of margin. The Commanders are -166 on the moneyline, meaning it takes a $166 bet to win $100 (total payout $266), and they are taking 84% of early tickets/75% of early money.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is on fire with his plays the past couple of weeks, going 5-0. In Week 4, he went 3-0 backing Baltimore -2 in its blowout of Buffalo, Jacksonville +7 vs. Houston, and Atlanta -1 (barely) in its 26-24 win over New Orleans.
McKay likes the Chicago Bears -3.5 vs. the visiting Carolina Panthers, in another 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
“Carolina has been more competitive in the last couple of weeks with Andy Dalton, but injuries are starting to add up,” McKay said, alluding to a banged-up offensive line and defense from front to back.
Leading receiver Diontae Johnson (ankle) is also questionable for Carolina. Other factors for McKay:
“Caleb Williams has been improving, and I can see a big effort for Chicago’s defense in this one.”
Danny Parkins weighs in on Caleb Williams after Week 4 win
Two more McKay wagers:
- Houston Texans +1 vs. Buffalo Bills: “Buffalo’s defense got exposed vs. Baltimore on Sunday Night Football. The Houston offense has more options against this beat-up defense. Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense will be pressed by Houston’s defense, and when this happens, turnovers follow.”
- Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Green Bay Packers: “The Rams are playing into their bye week and still need to get healthy. But they are still a competitive home ‘dog in this spot, against a poor Green Bay defense. Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense looked rusty [last week], making L.A. an attractive home ‘dog.”
NFL Quick Hitters
Feazel offered his behind-the-counter insights on four other notable games in NFL Week 5 odds:
- Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: This might be the best game in Sunday’s early window, a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Houston. Caesars bounced around between Bills -1/pick ‘em/Texans -1 and stood at Bills -1 on Wednesday night. “We’re seeing more Bills money so far, which is really kind of a surprise. The Bills got run over by the Ravens, but bettors are still coming back to the Bills.”
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals: It’s another 1 p.m. ET kickoff, with Cincy at home. Baltimore opened -3 (even) and was at -2.5 (-115) on Wednesday night. “No surprise, we’re seeing money come in on the Ravens. We were at Ravens -3 briefly, but that was quickly bet down.”
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steel City hosts the Sunday night game, at 8:20 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh toggled between -2.5/-2 a couple of times this week and was at -2.5 on Wednesday night. “There’s a little more positivity for the Steelers this season. They’re much more impressive than we thought they’d look. Right now, we’re seeing more Cowboys money, but a very small decision. I expect back-and-forth action up to Sunday.”
- New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs: The host Chiefs opened -5.5, peaked at -6 and bottomed out at -5 so far. Kansas City stood at -5.5 on Wednesday night. “Right now, we’re actually seeing more Saints action. I don’t see this line getting to 7 or to 4.5.” Regardless, with the Chiefs at home on Monday night, don’t be surprised if the public comes in late on K.C.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Per usual, the bulk of big-money bets on NFL Week 5 has yet to arrive. The largest so far is at Caesars Sports, a $28,091 wager on Commanders -3 (-120) vs. the Browns. If Washington wins by more than 3 on Sunday, then the bettor profits $23,409 (total payout $51,500).
But how about some significant leftovers from the Week 4 Monday night games?
- $220,000 Lions -3.5 vs. Seahawks (Caesars). Detroit wins and covers 42-29, so the bettor profits $200,000 (total payout $420,000).
- $150,000 Lions moneyline -213. All Detroit had to do was win, which it did. Bettor profits $70,423 (totally payout $220,423).
In-game betting — and particularly in-game parlays — are also leading to some healthy payouts. An intriguing one from Seahawks-Lions: A FanDuel Sportsbook customer put $15 on Jared Goff to score a touchdown on Detroit’s sixth drive, coupled with Kenneth Walker III to score a TD on Seattle’s seventh drive.
Those both happened, at massive +50029 odds — or approximately 500/1. The bettor profited a healthy $7,504.
Then there was this same-game parlay, also at FanDuel, made pregame on the Titans–Dolphins meeting: Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears to score the first TD, Miami QB Tyler Huntley to score a TD anytime, and Tennessee’s Tony Pollard to score the last TD of the game.
With the Titans leading 26-12, Pollard scored a completely meaningless TD on a 4-yard run with 24 seconds left. At huge odds of +76049 (ostensibly 760.5/1), the customer cleared $19,000 in profit.
Somebody is living right. May we all have a fraction of that good fortune in NFL Week 5 odds.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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