There are a couple of things we bettors have learned for sure this NFL season about two teams that are perfect on the moneyline.
One thing we know is that the Vikings are for real. Another thing we know is that the Chiefs need to rely on their defense to be successful.
Can these 4-0 squads keep it rolling in Week 5?
Let’s dive into my best bets for this weekend’s slate.
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(All times ET)
SUNDAY, OCT. 6
JETS @ VIKINGS (9:30 a.m., NFL Network)
Minnesota is 4-0, standing with the Chiefs as one of the last two undefeated teams.
While the Vikings’ success this season is surprising, it’s clear after four weeks that it is sustainable.
Quarterback Sam Darnold plays in a Shanahan offense, which elevates QBs who can protect the football and quickly read a defender. The Vikings have a good offensive line with a top-tier running back to help Darnold control opponents.
On defense, Brian Flores is the assistant coach of the year at the moment. He’s been dialing up some excellent plays with timely pressures. Sunday’s result against the Packers was 31-29 officially, but it was not that close. A muffed punt when the Vikes were up 28-7 let G.B. back into the game.
So far, Minnesota has beaten the 49ers, Texans and now the Packers.
It’s a legit team.
The Jets, on the other hand, are not legit. They are poorly coached, and we knew this heading into the season, but we assumed the return of Aaron Rodgers would help.
It has not.
Now we have star receiver Garrett Wilson calling out the offensive coordinator, and the head coach blaming weather for their miserable home loss to the Broncos. This team is unprepared to play a squad like the Vikings on the road.
Better coaching, better schemes and a faster team playing at home. I’ll take the Vikings to cover.
PICK: Vikings (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Herd Hierarchy: Vikings reach Top 3, Commanders leap into Colin’s Top 10 of Week 5
The Bills are in a tough spot this weekend. For them, Week 5 marks back-to-back road games against potential AFC title contenders.
Buffalo got blown out by the Ravens on Sunday night and now heads back on the road to face the 3-1 Texans. The issues the Bills have — which aren’t many — can be exploited by the Texans like we saw the Ravens do. Houston can run the ball well and attack some of the secondary weaknesses.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills are trying to find reliable receivers for Josh Allen. They don’t have a No. 1 option. Against the Texans defense, that could turn the Bills offense into the Josh Allen show.
Allen can win a game by himself, but that’s tough sledding against a team as good as the Texans.
I like Houston to cover and win.
PICK: Texans (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points, or win outright
What is key to the Chiefs’ undefeated record despite key injuries?
MONDAY, OCT. 7
SAINTS @ CHIEFS (8:15 p.m., ESPN)
The Chiefs are one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL after four weeks. They’ve won four games by an average of five points. They’ve played three playoff-caliber teams in those four games, but their pattern of playing close has carried over from last season to now.
While Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes, the team just doesn’t generate enough explosive pass plays to blow out opponents. And Mahomes is having the worst start to a season in his career. Bad footwork and ball placement has led to uncharacteristic turnovers on a level we’ve just not seen from him.
Sure, those will be easy fixes, but until we see it on game day, it’s fair to assume it will continue.
Now Mahomes is without his top running back and two of his top receiving targets after Rashee Rice injured his knee in Sunday’s win against the Chargers. The Chiefs will continue to be limited on offense and will be led by their defense — same as 2023.
All Chiefs games will be close.
K.C.’s defense has been excellent again this season, but I think the Saints do present some kind of challenge for the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense can stop the run when it wants — like it did against the Falcons — but it’s not something that happens regularly.
If the Saints can get the run game dialed up early, they can control the pace of the game and score some points.
The injuries New Orleans has on the offensive line and its iffy play at tackle could slow down the offensive attack. The Chiefs’ weakness on defense is their linebacking group, and the Saints’ Alvin Kamara is primed to take advantage of this. If you get him in space against Nick Bolton, he’s going to win that matchup every time.
In the end, if you mix Kansas City’s lack of offensive firepower and explosive play opportunities with the Saints’ ability to run the ball and challenge the Chiefs’ linebackers, this game will be close again.
The Saints are the play.
PICK: Saints (+5) to lose by fewer than 5 points, or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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