By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept
BigPaulSportsBigPaulSports
Notification Show More
Latest News
Elite, fearless, generational: Cooper Flagg ready to shine at Madison Square Garden
Elite, fearless, generational: Cooper Flagg ready to shine at Madison Square Garden
Game Analysis
Michigan State takes control of Big Ten with 75-62 win over Michigan
Michigan State takes control of Big Ten with 75-62 win over Michigan
Game Analysis
Eric Dixon scores 23 points to lead Villanova over No. 16 Marquette 81-66
Eric Dixon scores 23 points to lead Villanova over No. 16 Marquette 81-66
Game Analysis
Michigan State's Jase Richardson makes nasty spin move and finishes with layup to extend lead against Michigan
Michigan State’s Jase Richardson makes nasty spin move and finishes with layup to extend lead against Michigan
Game Analysis
No. 16 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Villanova Wildcats Highlights | FOX College Hoops
No. 16 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Villanova Wildcats Highlights | FOX College Hoops
Game Analysis
Aa
  • Big Paul Sports
  • Services
  • Game Analysis
  • Free Picks
  • Premium Content
  • Registration
  • Member Login
Reading: Bills-Texans AFC showdown is ‘a true coin flip in every sense of the term’
Share
Aa
BigPaulSportsBigPaulSports
  • Big Paul Sports
  • Services
  • Game Analysis
  • Free Picks
  • Premium Content
  • Registration
  • Member Login
Search
  • Big Paul Sports
  • Services
  • Game Analysis
  • Free Picks
  • Premium Content
  • Registration
  • Member Login
Have an existing account? Sign In
Follow US
BigPaulSports > Blog > Game Analysis > Bills-Texans AFC showdown is ‘a true coin flip in every sense of the term’
Game AnalysisNFL

Bills-Texans AFC showdown is ‘a true coin flip in every sense of the term’

BigP
Last updated: 2024/10/03 at 6:02 PM
BigP Published October 3, 2024
Share
Bills-Texans AFC showdown is 'a true coin flip in every sense of the term'
SHARE

Sam Panayotovich

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Power ratings drive betting lines from open to close in Las Vegas.

During NFL season, oddsmakers use their ratings to create numbers, bookmakers shade those numbers and post their lines on Sunday, then professional bettors use their numbers throughout the week to find edges and make bets. 

It’s an ecosystem that rinses and repeats for months. And it’s way more dynamic art than exact science. When the league’s highest-rated teams hit the highway to take on a playoff contender, you tend to get smaller spreads that usually come with polarizing opinions. 

That’s exactly the case for Sunday’s big AFC showdown between Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans. Buffalo opened -1 and the game is now a pick ‘em.  

ADVERTISEMENT

“I know a group that played Houston +1, and I’ve also seen Buffalo taken back at +1,” professional bettor Adam Chernoff told FOX Sports. “We know [PK] in the NFL means nothing. So the fact that there’s disagreement around the 1 on each side, it tells you all you need to know about this game.”

Barring injury news, it’s difficult to envision the betting line getting too rich on either side. And if you think professionals are putting a bunch of stock in Buffalo’s 35-10 blowout loss at the Baltimore Ravens, think again.

“Buffalo getting beat up by Baltimore is a one-of-one unique matchup that made the Bills look like a team they’re absolutely not,” Chernoff said. “The Bills have injuries up and down the spine of their defense and the Ravens are as well-equipped to take advantage of that as any team in the league.

“Houston is not going to beat Buffalo the same way Baltimore did. The Bills’ cornerbacks have been great all season, and they’re overperforming. They look fantastic. They’re [playing better] than we could’ve ever expected. They match up fairly well against the Texans’ wide receivers.

Dave Helman delivers his NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Dave Helman delivers his NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

“The big question is will this be another Stroud game against zone defense?” Chernoff continued. “He’s absolutely destroyed zones his entire career. [Sean] McDermott and [Bobby] Babich have been awesome in games where they have to come up with a specific game plan, even amid injuries. This will be more of a scheme win for the Bills if they win and cover. They won’t be limited by physicality.”

So … no bet?

“I have no bet on the game,” Chernoff admitted. “I wish you all the best writing a story about this one, because it’s split right down the middle with respected money on both sides. It’s a true coin flip in every sense of the term.”

Since Chernoff wouldn’t bite — kudos to him for not forcing a wager he doesn’t like down our throats — I took the conversation in a different direction.

Allen (+400 at DraftKings) and Stroud (+800 at DraftKings) are two of the game’s most talented signal callers and two of the most popular options in the betting market for the league’s Most Valuable Player.

If I gave Chernoff a crisp $100 bill with a straight-faced Benjamin Franklin and made him wager on one of the quarterbacks, what’s the move?

“The Allen number has come in a lot,” Chernoff said after a sigh. “But I would still go with Allen because he’s more of the team than Stroud is. Stroud has weapons. Allen has nothing. If the Bills make the playoffs and are in contention for a top seed, more of the acceptance to why will go to Allen.

“The Texans have Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, [offensive coordinator] Bobby Slowik, not to mention a pretty good defense. The Bills have Khalil Shakir and half of Curtis Samuel, and Allen is running around doing whatever he can.

“If the Bills get to 10 or 11 wins, everyone will look at Allen. And there’s no way they reach that number unless he’s a massive, massive part of it.” 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!


recommended


National Football League

Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more


in this topic

Sponsored Content

Juega en grande con cryptomonedas

You Might Also Like

Elite, fearless, generational: Cooper Flagg ready to shine at Madison Square Garden

Michigan State takes control of Big Ten with 75-62 win over Michigan

Eric Dixon scores 23 points to lead Villanova over No. 16 Marquette 81-66

Michigan State’s Jase Richardson makes nasty spin move and finishes with layup to extend lead against Michigan

TAGGED: nfl
BigP October 3, 2024
Share this Article
Facebook Twitter Email Print

Follow US

Find US on Social Medias
Facebook Like
Twitter Follow
Youtube Subscribe
Telegram Follow
newsletter featurednewsletter featured

Weekly Newsletter

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our newest articles instantly!

    Popular News
    Cards trade Simmons to Giants for 7th-round pick
    NFLSports News

    Cards trade Simmons to Giants for 7th-round pick

    BigP BigP August 25, 2023
    Lawrence: Big deal doesn’t change expectations
    Betting tips for ‘Thursday Night Football’: Raiders at Rams
    ‘#SteelIrish:’ Notre Dame’s 2025 recruiting class continues NFL lineage
    Navy promotes DC Newberry to head coach
    - Advertisement -
    Ad imageAd image

    Categories

    • Sports

    About US

    We offer information and tips on US Sports and evernts all over the world.
    Top Categories
    • Game Analysis
    • Free Picks
    • Services
    • Premium Content

    Subscribe US

    Subscribe to our newsletter to get our newest articles instantly!

      © Foxiz News Network. Ruby Design Company. All Rights Reserved.

      Removed from reading list

      Undo
      Welcome Back!

      Sign in to your account

      Lost your password?