The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders game, featuring the 2024 draft’s top two picks at quarterback, was flexed into the late window on Sunday, and for good reason.
Both quarterbacks were coming into it flying pretty high. Caleb Williams and the Bears were coming off their bye week after winning three straight games. Jayden Daniels was playing to put his team in sole possession of first place in the NFC East — something few people gave them a shot at prior to the season starting.
Washington has scored the third-most points in the league behind only the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens. The Commanders have a top-three offense by measures of production. They’re controlling the clock, retaining possession and converting third downs at the fourth-highest clip in the league. It certainly doesn’t look like a rookie quarterback is at the helm of that offense.
The Bears, meanwhile, had a slow start. But over the last three games, including one overseas in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Williams and his new offense under Shane Waldron looked like they were clicking. Waldron had figured out his personnel. Williams had built a rapport with each one of his weapons, who had each had their own breakout game. Chicago was fourth in their division, sure, but they were sitting at 4-2 in a loaded NFC North, thanks in large part to a defense that hit the ground running and ranked top-three in takeaways leading up to the game, even after their bye week.
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But there are caveats to everything.
The Bears, for instance, hadn’t played a tough schedule (though they have the league’s hardest-remaining schedule by opponent win percentage going forward thanks to their division). In fact, no team the Bears played before Sunday had more than one win under their belt at the time Chicago played them. Sure, they were rolling, and Williams looked confident, but how he would fare against stiffer competition was still unknown.
Daniels, by contrast, got out to an extremely hot start, even pulling off an upset over the Cincinnati Bengals on national television in Week 3 where he sliced and diced up the struggling Bengals defense for everyone to see. Daniels recorded the best completion percentage by a rookie who attempted at least 20 passes with a 91.3% rate in the game. And while that was a breakout game for him, the first four weeks of the season were riddled with short passes, first reads, and help from his team.
This is in no way diminishing Daniels’ accomplishments this season. On the year, he already has 1,821 yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions and a 71% completion rate. He’s had just five turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF.
However, in Weeks 1-4 to start the season, Daniels had the fourth-shortest average depth of target at 6.9 yards.
Contrast that with Williams, who had the 10th-longest average depth of target at 8.8 yards through the first four weeks of the year.
Now, I don’t think this speaks to each quarterback’s individual ability, but rather, the system and situation they’re being placed in.
The Washington Commanders and Chicago Bears have taken drastically different approaches to their shiny new toys under center.
Daniels was eased into the pro game by an offensive coordinator most recently in college, and therefore Kliff Kingsbury tasked him with more basic responsibilities. Daniels was eased into things like play action, where quarterbacks have to turn their backs to the line of scrimmage and reset once they turn back around.
Williams, by contrast, was thrown into the fire, with the full breadth of the offense at his disposal — and the full breadth of responsibility, including pre-snap checks and protection changes. The Bears bet on Williams coming out the other side, even if it was hard in the beginning.
And boy, was it.
Williams had a completion rate of 59% in the first four weeks. That ranked 30th among qualified quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks. There were miscommunications up front. There were timing issues on routes with receivers. It looked uglier than even I thought it would, taking into account how much new was on the offense in addition to Williams.
But Daniels had a lot of new too, without nearly the same amount of talent, and Kingsbury did his best to mesh what Daniels was asked to do in college with what he’ll be asked to do long-term in the NFL. He made sure to build up Daniels’ confidence before tasking him with complex options and lengthy progressions.
In Weeks 5-8, Daniels’ completion rate has gone down a bit, from 79.5% in Weeks 1-4, ranking first to 61.9%, ranking 26th. But his average depth of target has gone up, from the fourth shortest to the fifth-longest at 10.8 yards. He’s now pushing the ball down the field more, too. Over 51% of his passes are beyond the sticks, according to PFF. That ranks as the seventh-highest percentage in the league, up from 22 in the first four weeks of the season.
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Sunday evening was the first opportunity to compare and contrast the two approaches.
Daniels took this one after completing 21 of 38 pass attempts for 326 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 52 yards on eight rushes. Then there was that Hail Mary, of course. All of this happened after Daniels hadn’t practiced all week with a rib injury. Talk about tough. Talk about confident.
Meanwhile, Williams and the entire Chicago offense struggled for three quarters, with a shuffling offensive line due to injury. On the first nine drives of the game, Williams completed just four of 16 pass attempts for 36 yards. It wasn’t until the final two drives that Williams turned it on, completing six of eight pass attempts for 95 yards. It’s kind of a microcosm of Williams’ season thus far.
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Even with all of that, the Bears pulled ahead with just 25 seconds remaining in the game. Poor management and defensive execution coupled with an absolutely flawless display of offensive execution by the Commanders doomed the Bears in the end. But it wasn’t because of Williams. No, Williams had put his team in position to win the game. The ability to fight through adversity and come out the other side is exactly what the Bears have banked on. That’s a testament to the confidence and toughness already built into their quarterback.
Both players seem fully in command of their respective offenses, even if Williams’ latest outing was a bit of a regression. Progress is very rarely linear. There were going to be ups and downs, especially within the first half of the season. I think it’s important to keep that in context when evaluating individual quarterbacks: we aren’t even halfway through their first season. The expectations of rookie signal callers have been warped by the exceptions, not the masses. We have more examples than ever that quarterbacks, in particular, can sometimes take years to develop and need the right situations (just look around the league at what Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith and others are doing this year).
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[Related: 10 most memorable Hail Marys in NFL history, including ‘Madhouse in Maryland’]
I’m not here to say which approach is the right one. They’re just different for different quarterbacks. Washington leads their division while Chicago is in the cellar of theirs. But that’s not a commentary solely on the quarterbacks. It’s a team game after all, and the Bears just happen to be surrounded by three of the best teams in the league within the NFC North.
I don’t think there’s any doubt at this point, though, that it’s going to be a lot of fun following both of these players for what should be long careers.
Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.
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