Jared Goff is a true MVP contender, and the numbers back it up

Carmen Vitali

NFL Reporter

It’s time we have a conversation, kids.

The MVP conversation — in which Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff belongs firmly.

It’s only eight weeks into the season, so I’m not making declarations he will win it just yet — especially when Lamar Jackson is telling everyone else to hold his beer week-in and week-out.

But Goff has come such a long way from his days as the Los Angeles Rams’ No. 1 overall pick, which is saying a lot. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has unlocked something in Goff that has him not only playing the best ball of his career, but the best ball of pretty much anyone in the league right now.

In the Lions’ past four games (all wins), Detroit has scored more touchdowns than Goff has incompletions. He has an 84% completion rate in that span, which is the highest of any qualified quarterback and there’s more.

Not only is he incredibly accurate, he’s not doing it on checkdowns and short passes. He leads the league in yards per attempt average at 11.7 over the last four games. He has an average passer rating of 142.6 in that span.

Since the 1970 merger, he’s now joined Aaron Rodgers (2011), Kurt Warner (1999) and Roger Staubach (1971) as the only players to record a passer rating of 140 or higher in three consecutive games. Rodgers and Warner won MVP in those seasons.

It’s an incredible amount of production that has Goff’s stat line of 128 of 174 for 1,610 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season.

Perhaps Goff’s most impressive feat came last Sunday, when Goff and his OC Johnson dismantled Brian Flores’ defense in Minnesota. Goff started with 15-straight completions, two weeks after going a perfect 18-for-18 in their revenge game over the Seattle Seahawks.

“We put a ton on his plate this week,” Lions head coach Dan Campbell said on Monday of Goff. “We put a ton mentally. We asked him to do so much, particularly on third down, because this is such a unique defensive scheme that we faced and the amount of pressure, and he handled it so good.”

Those third-down situations illustrated perfectly what Goff was so good at against Minnesota. Take the touchdown to Kalif Raymond in the third quarter, it was one of multiple times Goff could be seen changing the play at the line as he looked over the defense. That’s the kind of stuff mentally Campbell was talking about. And doing it against a defense that has very few tendencies and is incredibly aggressive is a feather in the cap of Goff.

It also points to this being something sustainable for Goff. It points to his growth as a quarterback and within the Lions’ system. Detroit’s game plan under Johnson is sophisticated and malleable. It changes by opponent, which is part of what makes it so fun.

Goff is dealing to a vast array of different offensive weapons, too. His production is translating to overall offensive production. The Lions are averaging 411.8 yards per game this season and 6.43 yards per play on offense, which ranks second behind just the Baltimore Ravens. They have a top-five rushing and passing offense by per-game average and are scoring 30.3 points per game, the third-best mark in the NFL.

Even advanced metrics illustrate just how successful this offense is. The Lions have the highest positive EPA percentage — 49.9% of their offensive plays generate positive EPA.

That kind of goes along with the whole scoring points thing.

It’s all led by Goff, who has the second-highest accuracy percentage, per Pro Football Focus, among qualified passers. The metric takes into account ball placement, accuracy and whether or not the throw is away from coverage and Goff’s mark is 68.3%.

And though MVP is an individual award, team success matters, too. Goff is integral to why the Lions are winning — and against tough competition, which Detroit is going to need. They’ve played just one division game, their last game, and they passed that test. But they have two meetings with the Green Bay Packers, two with the surging Chicago Bears and another date with the Vikings to get through before the end of the season. They also have the Texans, Bills and 49ers left on their schedule thanks to winning the NFC North last year.

How Goff looks in those meetings will determine whether or not he stays an MVP contender. But thanks to his relationship with his coordinator, his coach and his offensive weapons, he looks poised to handle just about anything thrown at him.

Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.