Ranking NFL head coaches on the hot seat: Doug Pederson leads 7 at risk

Ralph Vacchiano

NFL Reporter

Woody Johnson already got a jump on the competition when he fired Robert Saleh last week. It was a rare, in-season coaching move for a team still in playoff contention.

And it’s possible it will open the floodgates for several more.

Because as much as Saleh’s Jets were underachieving, they were far from the only team disappointing their fans and owners through the first six weeks of the season. Saleh had been on the hot seat for more than a year in New York, so his firing was probably inevitable.

But he’s had plenty of company in the NFL coaching fire.

Here are some of the others who could be in danger of losing their jobs, either sometime soon or at the end of this season. They are ranked in order of their current likelihood to end up unemployed in the next three months:

1. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

It really is stunning that Saleh beat Pederson to the exit door, considering the Jaguars started 0-5 after a 1-5 finish to last season. There seems to be so much talent on the roster, but there’s been obvious regression from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, running back Travis Etienne, and so many others.

Pederson is supposed to be an offensive whiz, yet the Jaguars are averaging 18.8 points per game and it feels like a struggle just to get that much. They’ve had 17 points or fewer in four of their six games. And their defense is now the second-worst in the league, having given up 69 points the last two weeks to the Colts and the Bears.

They better beat the New England Patriots (1-5) on Sunday in London, otherwise Pederson might be kept off the team charter home. Because it’s going to get worse. After they return, they’ll face the Packers (4-2), Eagles (3-2), Vikings (5-0) and Lions (4-1) before heading into their bye.

Doug Pederson and the Jaguars are 1-5 on the season. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

2. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

Remember when the Saints were the talk of the NFL after their 2-0 start, when they beat the Panthers and Cowboys by a combined score of 91-29? That seems like years ago now that they’ve lost four straight and are reeling after an injury to quarterback Derek Carr.

Carr will be out another 2-3 weeks, and maybe that’ll buy Allen some time. But he might not have enough goodwill built up to survive much longer. He’s only 18-22 in his two-plus seasons since taking over for Sean Payton. And no one has forgotten that he was just 8-28 in his two-plus seasons coaching the Raiders from 2012-14.

There’s no doubt this is his last chance to prove he can win as a head coach. The only question is how long Saints owner Gayle Benson and general manager Mickey Loomis will give him to prove it.

Dennis Allen and the Saints are reeling after a 2-0 start. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

3. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Jerry Jones says he’s not firing the coach during the season, and he probably means it. But he lit McCarthy’s seat on fire before the season started by refusing to extend his contract beyond the end of 2024, and the disappointing 3-3 start hasn’t cooled his seat off at all. Jones would never admit it, but what probably is saving McCarthy is that his likely interim successor would be defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, but the Dallas defense has been a bigger bust than the disappointing offense so far.

Jones has made it clear he thinks he’s got a Super Bowl team, even though he refused to spend money in the offseason to really build it into a contender. McCarthy almost certainly needs to get to the playoffs to keep his job, which is possible in the wide-open NFC. But this team has a lot of problems right now and the playoffs are far from guaranteed.

Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys are 3-3 heading into their bye week. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

4. Brian Daboll, New York Giants

The last thing the Giants want to do is fire another coach after cycling through five in the nine years since they showed Tom Coughlin the door. General manager Joe Schoen and Daboll were supposed to bring stability when they were hired in 2022.

But Daboll was also supposed to bring an offensive revival, and that hasn’t exactly worked out. Quarterback Daniel Jones is playing better, but not nearly well enough. Every offensive possession feels like such an uphill climb. It’s particularly bad at home where the Giants are 0-3, averaging 9.3 points per game and have scored just one touchdown.

That’s embarrassing, and if it continues, it could be enough to force co-owner John Mara to make a change he really doesn’t want to make. Daboll will get the full season and he probably doesn’t even need to make the playoffs to survive. But there has to be some obvious improvement, especially on offense. It would really help if he could get some better play from Jones.

Brian Daboll and the Giants have struggled at home with an 0-3 record at MetLife Stadium this season. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

5. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals

After leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl in the 2021 season, Taylor got a contract extension that runs through the 2026 season. And even though he only makes about $4.5 million per season, it’s hard to imagine the Bengals giving him $9 million over the next two years not to coach. That’s the only reason he’s not higher on this list. The Bengals are notably cheap.

But it’s hard to find a coach doing a worse job than Taylor right now. With a 1-2 punch like quarterback Joe Burrow and receiver Ja’Marr Chase it’s wild to believe they’ve only topped 24 points once this season and somehow just put up a measly 13 points on the Giants last Sunday night. Taylor was once thought to be the next great offensive mind in this league, a successor to his mentor Sean McVay. His star is definitely fading.

Zac Taylor and the Bengals currently sit at 2-4 this season. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

6. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

Two seasons ago, Sirianni’s Eagles played in the Super Bowl. Heading into last December they were 10-1. But it has all unraveled from there in a mess of dysfunction, coordinator changes and general unhappiness that almost cost Sirianni his job during the offseason.

Now he needs to get to the playoffs to keep it, and he might need to make a bit of a postseason run, too. He certainly has a team loaded enough to do it. The problem is they are floundering at 3-2. Worse, they invested heavily in their offense with huge contracts for QB Jalen Hurts, WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, RB Saquon Barkley, TE Dallas Goedert and three-fifths of their offense line, but they haven’t topped 21 points since Opening Day.

If Sirianni — who has cycled through coordinators like his players change cleats — can’t get that offense and his team going, owner Jeffrey Lurie isn’t going to just sit back and let the championship window close on his franchise.

Nick Sirianni and the Eagles aren’t looking like Super Bowl contenders so far this season. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

7. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

This would be really crazy, right? Stefanski has been the most successful coach the franchise has had since they re-entered the league in 1999. He’s led them to the playoffs twice in four years. And maybe most importantly, the Browns just signed him to a contract extension in June.

So he’s probably not going anywhere, except that he and his team are being crushed under the weight of quarterback Deshaun Watson’s awful performance and his insane, fully guaranteed, $230 million contract. The Browns offense is the worst in the NFL. Watson is the worst quarterback in the NFL. And if Stefanski can’t figure out a way to get better production out of him, don’t the Browns have to find someone who can?

Remember, Watson has $92 million coming to him, guaranteed, over the next two seasons, so he’s not getting cut or traded and he probably can’t be benched either. If the choice comes down to Stefanski or Watson, the Browns have no choice at all.

The Browns are 1-5 this season under Kevin Stefanski this season. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.