He’s a bad man.
We’re talking about Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry — not a certain private detective from your favorite 1970s action movie “Shaft.”
Through seven games, Henry has shown he’s worth every penny of the two-year, $16 million contract he signed during the offseason. In fact, he’s one of the season’s biggest bargains, even though Cowboys owner Jerry Jones deemed Henry “didn’t fit” in Mike McCarthy’s offense or under Dallas’ salary cap.
Henry leads the league in rushing (873) and rushing touchdowns (8). He’s averaging an impressive 6.5 yard per carry.
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And even at 30 years old, considered the expiration date of running back longevity, Henry still seems like he’s got plenty of gas left in the tank. He’s on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, set in 1984 (2,105 yards in 16 games.) Can he do it? Remember that it was only four years ago when Henry rushed for 2,027 yards in 16 games for the Tennessee Titans.
And with Henry’s arrival, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson has appeared to unlock yet another level in his otherworldly play. The reigning NFL MVP is putting together another MVP-worthy season.
But even with Henry’s astounding numbers, it’s still an uphill climb for the bruising running back to become the first non-quarterback to win the league MVP award since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Just look to last season, when Christian McCaffrey led the league in scrimmage yards (2,023) and total touchdowns (21), but finished third in MVP voting.
Henry’s MVP odds improved from 50/1 to 40/1 this week. And he’s the favorite to win the league’s Offensive Player of the Year, which he won in 2020 on the strength of his 2,000-yard rushing performance.
Jackson overtook Patrick Mahomes as the favorite to win the MVP award this week, while Jared Goff was the biggest mover, going from 18/1 to 8.5/1.
Here’s my top five for Week 8.
1. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +225 (bet $10 to win $32.50 total
Henry’s dominant running and Jackson’s wizardry as a playmaker have led to five straight wins for Baltimore. Jackson leads the NFL with a 118.0 passer rating and is tied for second in passing touchdowns (15). His 9.1 yards per attempt is second only to Jared Goff’s 9.3.
One of the reasons for Jackson’s success in pushing the ball down the field has been Baltimore’s improved pass protection. Jackson’s 3.8% sack rate is among the lowest in the league.
Will Lamar Jackson win his third MVP?
2. Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
If Jackson were not playing so well, the NFL would be focusing more attention on Allen, who is having a great year. Allen has been efficient, completing 63% of his passes for 1,453 yards, with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in leading Buffalo to a 5-2 record.
Adding receiver Amari Cooper via trade from the Cleveland Browns only helps Allen & Co. They’ll get tested on Sunday by the Seattle Seahawks, led by defensive guru Mike Macdonald.
3. Derrick Henry, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
The Ravens are creating explosive plays with Henry in the backfield, as he has 10 rushes of 20-plus yards this season. For his career, he has 18 rushes of at least 50 yards, trailing only Peterson (25) and Barry Sanders (24).
According to Next Gen Stats, Henry has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage just 36.6% of the time, his lowest rate since 2016.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Current MVP Odds: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total))
The numbers continue to look unimpressive: Mahomes is tied for the league lead with eight interceptions and has more picks than touchdown passes (6).
But he has been surgical with the game on the line.
In the fourth quarter, Mahomes is 18-of-25 (72%) for 266 yards, with a touchdown and no interceptions. He understands that the defense is leading Kansas City this year and that he just has to make sure he doesn’t give the game away.
And now Mahomes gets some help with the addition of receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
Does trading for DeAndre Hopkins solve Chiefs’ offensive struggles?
5. Jared Goff, Lions
Current MVP Odds: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
The rebirth in Detroit continues for Goff, who is having his best season as a pro. His passer rating (111.5), completion percentage (73.6) and yards per attempt (9.3) are all career highs.
Goff has been particularly efficient on play-action passes. The Lions have used play-action on a league-high 35.2% of Goff’s dropbacks, and he has completed 48 of 63 passes for 708 yards, with a touchdown and an interception.
Honorable mention: Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
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