We’re cooking with gas now.
That’s an 8-3 football run over the last two weeks here at FOX Sports, and now we enter the home stretch of college football’s regular season and the meatiest stretch of the NFL campaign.
I’ve got two college football plays and three NFL wagers this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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2024 Record: (27-23, +1.8 units)
No. 3 Texas (-12.5, O/U 57) @ Arkansas
The Longhorns made the card last week (-22.5) because I never believed the smoke about Florida quarterback DJ Lagway playing with a hamstring injury. Texas now heads to Fayetteville to face a Razorbacks team that will have its starting quarterback, Taylen Green, back under center. Arkansas definitely has enough offensive versatility to give the Horns a scare.
PICK: Arkansas (+12.5) to lose by fewer than 12.5 points, or win outright
Virginia @ No. 8 Notre Dame (-22.5, O/U 50.5)
Don’t look now, but the Irish are rolling. There will always be a faction of people that brings up Notre Dame’s early-season loss to Northern Illinois, a game that was played all the way back on Sept. 7. Yawn. Marcus Freeman’s defense has really tightened the screws over the last month and while this is a big number, I’m not afraid to lay it.
PICK: Notre Dame (-22.5) to win by more than 22.5 points
Joel Klatt explains why Deion Sanders deserves Coach of the Year
Baltimore Ravens (-3, O/U 48.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin continues to amaze. In a league predicated on offensive skill and talent, the Steelers are still doing it the old-fashioned way with incredible defense and serviceable quarterback play. Pittsburgh is only allowing 16.2 points per game and this is unquestionably the best “D” Baltimore’s elite offense will face to date. Give me the Steelers in an ugly one.
PICK: Steelers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-7, O/U 44)
After beating the Rams on Monday Night Football, the 3-6 Dolphins are now touchdown favorites at home against Las Vegas. Okay? I’m just not there from a power ratings standpoint. My numbers have Miami four points better on a neutral field, and home field is nowhere near a full three anymore. The Raiders continue to fight, and I imagine they’ll do so again off the bye.
PICK: Raiders (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points, or win outright
What can Russell Wilson prove with a win over the Baltimore Ravens?
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5, O/U 46)
Cincinnati Bengals @ L.A. Chargers (-1.5, O/U 48)
The best teaser bets follow Wong principles — tease through 3 and 7 points. Most of you are aware Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, but I still want more points. Let’s kick the Chiefs up to +8.5 at Buffalo and make Joe Burrow and the Bengals 7.5-point pups against the Chargers. Both teams have to cover the adjusted numbers to win and I really like my chances.
PICK: Two-team, six-point teaser; Chiefs +8.5 to Bengals +7.5
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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