The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t underdogs very often. So when it happens, bettors take notice.
And it’s happening in NFL Week 11 odds.
Kansas City is a 2-point road ‘dog against the Buffalo Bills in a Sunday showdown. More attractive to the public betting masses: taking the Chiefs on the moneyline at +110 for a better payout, banking on Patrick Mahomes & Co. just winning the game outright.
“How often can you get the Chiefs at plus money? We’re gonna see a lot of people take the moneyline on the Chiefs,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Chiefs vs. Bills and a handful of other games, as we dive into NFL Week 11 betting nuggets.
Covering The Number
Kansas City is 9-0 straight up (SU) and a more middling 5-4 against the spread (ATS). The Chiefs barely remained unbeaten in Week 10, edging Denver 16-14 by blocking a field goal as time expired. K.C. didn’t cover as a 7.5-point home favorite and enters this week on an 0-3 ATS skid.
Buffalo (8-2 SU/6-4 ATS) is on a five-game win streak, covering in four of those games. In Week 10, the Bills beat Indianapolis 30-20 as 4.5-point road favorites.
Caesars opened the Bills -1.5 and got out to -2.5 on Sunday night. But as of late Wednesday night, Buffalo was at -2 (-105).
“So far, the Chiefs are getting the majority of the early money, which isn’t a surprise,” Feazel said. “They’re 9-0, not covering games, not beating what the market perceives them to be. But they’re still certainly the team to beat.”
Regardless of whether Caesars needs the Bills, this 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff will see plenty of tickets and money on both sides.
“It’s gonna be up there. All eyes are on this matchup. I expect this to be a very large-action game,” Feazel said.
NFL Rocks On FOX
FOX has a few interesting contests on Sunday, including Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers at 4:05 p.m. ET. The 49ers opened -7 (-105) at Caesars and on Tuesday morning dipped to -6.5 (-110), where the line stood late Wednesday.
San Fran (5-4 SU/4-5 ATS) is finally above .500, for the first time since its Week 1 win over the New York Jets. Seattle (4-5 SU/2-6-1 ATS) is coming off a bye and probably needed it, as the Seahawks are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games.
“So far, we’re seeing Seahawks money. But I don’t expect that to hold,” Feazel said. “We’ll have more money on the 49ers by kickoff. The first time around this season, the 49ers really dominated.”
In Week 6 at Seattle, the Niners raced to a 16-0 second-quarter lead en route to a 36-24 victory as 3.5-point favorites.
Will the Buffalo Bills finally end the Kansas City Chiefs’ undefeated streak in this pivotal matchup?
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is coming off a 3-0 week. McKay was on Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog at Baltimore, and the Bengals covered in a 35-34 loss. He bet Pittsburgh +3 at Washington, and the Steelers won outright 28-27, and he took Denver +8.5 at Kansas City, where the Broncos covered in a 16-14 loss.
McKay is looking at three games in Week 11 NFL odds, as well. First up: Tennessee +6/+6.5 vs. Minnesota.
“This is back-to-back road games for Minnesota, off an ugly win last week,” McKay said, alluding to the Vikings’ 12-7 victory at Jacksonville. “I can see much the same here vs. a better defense in Tennessee. The Titans’ improved offensive line can control the ball and limit possession in this one.”
McKay is also on Kansas City +2.5 at Buffalo, noting the Chiefs are on a 15-game winning streak.
“I’m going with the team that hasn’t lost since last Christmas. The line moved from pick to +2.5, so there’s value now,” he said. “I’m not liking Buffalo’s offensive injury report in a game that should be another classic.”
Bills wideout Amari Cooper (wrist) and tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) are questionable, and wideout Keon Coleman (wrist) is out.
McKay is backing Cincinnati for the second straight week, this time as a 2-point Sunday night road underdog vs. the Los Angeles Chargers.
“The Bengals have extra rest after their crazy Thursday night game vs. Baltimore,” McKay said. “Cincy may get back two offensive starters, [left tackle] Orlando Brown Jr. and wide receiver Tee Higgins. L.A. is a ball-control offense that may have a tough time keeping up with the Cincy offense.”
McKay also noted he expects the Bengals to go all-out in Week 11, with a bye coming in Week 12.
Tom Brady’s Week 10 Power Rankings
Pittsburgh Popular
Interestingly, at Caesars Sports and other sportsbooks across the country, the Pittsburgh Steelers took the bulk of the betting action in Week 11 against the Washington Commanders. And those bettors were proven correct, as the 2-point road underdog Steelers won outright 28-27.
In NFL Week 12 odds, the Steelers opened as 3-point home underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens. The line briefly went to Ravens -3.5 on Sunday night, and late Wednesday night, it stood at Ravens -3 (-120).
And Pittsburgh is popular again.
“It’s not surprising to see Steelers money. It’s the same case as last week. They’re looking at Pittsburgh here,” Feazel said.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
One major wager has already landed.
We often write about betting a little to win a lot. In this case, a Caesars Sports customer bet quite a lot to win a little.
As in: $240,000 on Detroit Lions moneyline -800 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. So if Detroit — which is a 14-point favorite on the spread — just wins the game, regardless of final margin, that wager wins.
With -800 odds, the profit will be a relatively modest $30,000 (total payout $270,000). Still, that’s 12.5% ROI. I’d take that on my 401K anytime.
Caesars also took a $42,000 bet on New England Patriots +5 (-105) vs. Los Angeles Rams. If the home underdog Patriots can beat that spread, then the bettor profits a nifty $40,000 (total payout $82,000).
These bigger bets can be kind of fun to live through vicariously, rooting for bettors to beat the book. Or rooting against the bet, if that’s your thing. For your own wagers, though, just remember to keep it reasonable. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.
Enjoy the games!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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