“America’s Game of the Week” is shaping up to be a doozy.
Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions hit the highway to face Matt LaFleur’s Green Bay Packers this Sunday afternoon at legendary Lambeau Field. You can watch the NFC North showdown on FOX and the FOX Sports app, with Kevin Burkhardt and Tom Brady on the call.
The Las Vegas betting line was Green Bay -1 back in the summer, but the number has jumped almost three points due to uncertainty around Packers quarterback Jordan Love.
Love strained his groin during Sunday’s win at Jacksonville and there’s no real update on his status.
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That said, DraftKings Sportsbook is dealing Detroit -3.5 and O/U 48.
“Let’s see what happens with Love at practice,” professional bettor Adam Chernoff told FOX Sports. “He didn’t go (Wednesday) and I’m curious to see what happens Thursday and Friday. They have the bye on deck. Do they force him back or give him the extra week to repair himself and get ready for the stretch run? It’s still a little uncertain.
“I think the number in the market is a bit uncertain as well. This feels like a mid-hedge type of spot where it slightly leans toward Love not playing at the price. If Love is out, this is closer to Lions -4.5. If Love is in, I think we see Lions -1 or -1.5. We saw this as a pick ‘em [with Love expected to play on the lookahead line]. The initial adjustment from Love to Malik Willis was a little more than six points, but Willis is a lot better in this offense than we expected.
“I think it’s Lions -1/-1.5 with Love in and -4/-4.5 with Love out.
Ironically enough, the Packers are 2-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this season when Willis starts under center. Wins and covers against the Colts and Titans might not seem extremely impressive in hindsight, but wins are tough to come by in the NFL.
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LaFleur has also thrived in the underdog role as a head coach. According to Joe Osborne from Covers, Green Bay is 17-4 ATS when catching three points or more under LaFleur.
How does he keep doing more with less?
“Scheme, prep, play calling,” Chernoff analyzed. “That’s easy. Those three things. He’s always more prepared than the other defense. He has a great early-game script, and he’s able to adapt and change his play calling to whoever he has under center and tailor it to an opponent. We even saw two very different game plans with Willis in the two games he started.
“He’s one of the best play callers in the NFL.”
Meanwhile, the Lions have flexed their muscles all season long, and they’ve been extra noticeable since their Week 5 bye. They drubbed the Cowboys 47-9 in Dallas, handed the Vikings their first loss of the year in Minnesota, then dropped 52 points on the Titans.
They’ve outscored their opponents 130-52 over that span.
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“The public’s been taking our money all season on Detroit,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told FOX Sports. “I actually went back and looked the other day and the Lions have covered six of seven games. That’s a really good football team, and they’re getting more popular at the window.
“I’ve raised their rating all season and they keep covering. That’s the sign of a special team. I really like their coach, too. He got a lot of heat for the NFC Championship last year, which I think is silly. They’ve established a personality and identity, and it clearly works.
“We’ll probably be rooting for Green Bay to get home.”
It’s difficult to make a move without knowing more about Love’s health, but I can assure you I’ve got NFL injury notifications from X straight to my lock screen. The situation must be monitored closely, and I’ll be playing the Packers if any positive updates surface re: Love.
Be ready to move fast if that’s the case.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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