Patrick Mahomes makes you money as an underdog.
Since taking over the reins from Alex Smith in Sept. 2018, Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have been underdogs 14 times. They’re 11-3 straight up (SU) and a staggering 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) during that span.
Is a 92% cover rate good?
Despite all that, the betting market has moved away from Kansas City in Sunday’s showdown against the Buffalo Bills. DraftKings Sportsbook actually opened K.C. -1 on the road, but Buffalo is as high as -2.5 on the screen.
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“We opened Buffalo -2,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told FOX Sports. “We don’t care about being first to post. After the market settles, we go. And I’ll tell you what, our first limit bet came on Buffalo. That was a little surprising.”
The line has bounced around Bills -2/2.5 for most of the week, and multiple shops are ecstatic about the two-way action. After all, it’s easy to make a case for both teams. Plenty of people are willing to back Josh Allen & Co. as short home favorites, while others will blindly bet Mahomes as a ‘dog.
It’s tough to imagine the line getting any higher.
“Someone’s always willing to take a 3,” the bookmaker added.
Armed with the NFL’s second-highest point differential at +97, Buffalo is a perfect 4-0 at home this year with a season-opening 34-28 win over Arizona, a 37-point shellacking of Jacksonville, a 24-point win against lowly Tennessee and a squeaky 30-27 victory versus Miami.
Obviously, none of those teams are stronger than Kansas City, a squad Scott Van Pelt said last Monday was not unbeatable, but nobody can beat them.
Great line.
Will the Buffalo Bills finally end the Kansas City Chiefs’ undefeated streak in this pivotal matchup?
“Injury news for this game is going to have an impact,” professional bettor Adam Chernoff from Right Angle Sports told FOX Sports.
“It looks like Dalton Kincaid has a legitimate chance to miss for Buffalo. It looks like [JuJu] Smith-Schuster could be back for the Chiefs. You also have news with Keon Coleman being banged up for Buffalo. This is a Chiefs defense all season that’s been way better against the run than expected and that’s become the strong point of the Bills offense.
“This game and this market looks and feels a lot like the Chiefs-49ers game did a few weeks ago. It’s being talked about the same way, too. The fact is, in these big games, as much as the Chiefs might be getting outgained on a weekly basis in yards per play, they’re finding ways to manufacture points.
“While I usually look at that as a bit of an outlier, I have to look past that with [Andy] Reid and Mahomes. They’re finding a way and the team is getting a little bit healthier. I can’t help but feel like this number has gone too far for the Bills and as square as it might be, I like the Chiefs +2 here.”
I agree with Chernoff on the side, but I love the Chiefs in a teaser this week. You can do a two-team, six-point teaser, knock the Chiefs up to +8.5 and pair them with the Cincinnati Bengals at +7.5. Both sides must cover those adjusted numbers to win and I really, really like my chances.
If the Chiefs lose by 10, I’ll tip my cap.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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