Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
This past Saturday was another electric day in college football.
Second-ranked Georgia was tied 20-20 in the fourth quarter with unranked Florida before scoring two late touchdowns, fourth-ranked Ohio State erased a 10-point deficit against third-ranked Penn State, undefeated Iowa State lost to unranked Texas Tech by one point, 11th ranked Clemson lost to unranked Louisville by double digits, 10th ranked Texas A&M lost by 24 to unranked South Carolina, and three other teams ranked in the top 25 also lost this past Saturday.
It was another tough weekend for some historic programs, as USC, Michigan, Nebraska, and Florida State all lost in addition to Penn State and Clemson. Those schools are some of the most winningest in the history of the sport, truly highlighting how parity is at an all-time high.
With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what’s notable for the upcoming week.
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I’ve decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football.
This week, six ranked teams will be on the road against unranked opponents, along with two ranked vs. ranked matchups taking place. We’ll get into those shortly. All of the top 10 teams in the AP poll play this weekend, and 21 of the top 25 have action as well.
Let’s dive into my thoughts and games to watch for in Week 11.
First edition of the CFP rankings
On Tuesday, the first edition of this season’s CFP rankings will be released. I’m very curious to see how different they are from the AP Poll and how much the rankings ultimately mean now that there are 12 teams. In the past, we saw those top four teams often struggle the week after the first rankings— but with so much runway into the field, I’m not sure we’ll see the same struggles. The teams currently ranked in the top four of the AP Poll are Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, and Miami. The Bulldogs are the lone team of that bunch playing a ranked opponent, as they’ll take on 16th ranked Ole Miss.
Celebrating Michael Crabtree
As a college football die-hard, I love bringing up notable anniversaries and remembering incredible plays. While it’s not the exact anniversary of Michael Crabtree’s incredible catch against Texas (Nov. 1, 2008), it’s close enough for me to bring up. The score was 33-32 with Texas up with just eight seconds left. Graham Harrell dropped back, found Crabtree for a sideline catch, and the Biletnikoff winner would somehow evade two defenders to run in for the score to make it 39-33. I’m a little biased here, because I was on the field for this game. If you look closely, you can make fun of me for standing on the sideline with the catch right in front of me (and Chris Fowler) while I’m half looking at the catch and the clock to see how much time is left. This game came after the season in which Crabtree set the NCAA record for touchdown catches by a freshman with 22. Since the FBS/FCS split in 1978, the Red Raiders are 1-6 against the AP no. 1 team, with that lone win coming in this game against the Longhorns in 2008. Texas Tech would finish the 2008 season with an 11-1 regular season record before losing to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl.
How times have changed for the Irish and Noles
Tenth ranked Notre Dame is 7-1, and takes on a Florida State team that is 1-8 after being ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP poll. It’s been quite the year for both teams, as the Irish lost to a Northern Illinois team that is currently 4-4 with losses to Buffalo, NC State, Toledo, and Ball State— while this Seminoles team is the first to start 1-8 since the 1974 squad that went 1-10. What’s even crazier is that these two teams met around this time in 1993 in a No. 1 vs No. 2 matchup. On November 13th of that year, No. 1 FSU lost 31-24 to No. 2 Notre Dame in South Bend. Despite the loss, Bobby Bowden’s squad went on to be crowned national champs that year. While these two teams are on much different trajectories this season— with Notre Dame still in contention for a playoff spot while FSU will probably only win one of their next three games and finish the season 2-10 (play Charleston Southern and Florida after the Irish)— both fan bases are waiting for their respective programs to return to prominence. Only time will tell how long that will take.
Offensive bonanza in AAC matchup this week
North Texas has the No. 2 passing offense in the country this season, averaging a whopping 371.6 pass yards per game. They take on Army, who is 8-0 and boasts the No. 1 rushing offense in the country at 340.1 rushing yards per game. This game should be a really interesting one considering the Mean Green are giving up nearly 37 points a game while the Black Knights have held opponents to just over 11 per contest. Jeff Monken’s squad will look to improve to 9-0 for the first time since 1996, while Eric Morris’ bunch is looking for a big conference win— currently at 2-2 in AAC play and 5-3 overall. Chandler Morris leads the country in pass yards per game (359.1) while Bryson Daily is the only quarterback to average over 120 rush yards per game in all of FBS. This one should be fun.
Are these teams for real?
There are a lot of teams that have really good records but have yet to play anyone worthwhile. My Hurricanes have only one win over a team currently ranked, and have played in three one-score games in their last five outings. Indiana has no such wins, and may not have a win against a team with a single point in the AP Poll when the season is over. The same goes for Colorado and Penn State. Texas has one win over a team currently ranked and that’s over Vanderbilt. So are these teams really that good, or are these just a bunch of records built up on hollow wins? We’ll have to wait and see.
Looking ahead at the Huskers
After a 5-1 start, Nebraska has lost three straight to fall to 5-4. Last week they were 7.5-point home favorites against UCLA and were dominated from the jump. They’ve lost eight straight games when they have five wins entering the game. Are they going to make it nine straight when they play USC in two weeks? The Huskers haven’t made a Bowl game since 2016 and haven’t won one since 2015. Something to monitor is Dylan Raiola’s status. The true freshman quarterback was injured in the fourth quarter against the Bruins and did not return. He is expected to be available against the Trojans, but with his injury being a back-related one, I’d keep an eye on his progress in the coming weeks.
Revenge week for the Hurricanes
This week is a tough one for me. All I’ll be able to think about is how this game ended last season. Miami entered the game 4-0 and was up 20-17 with 34 seconds left on the clock with both teams having no timeouts left on 3rd and 10. Instead of taking a knee and letting the clock run out, Mario Cristobal ran a rushing play. The running back fumbled, and the Yellow Jackets recovered with 26 seconds left. They would go on to drive 74 yards in just four plays, capping the drive off with a 44-yard touchdown. The Canes would lose 23-20, and go 3-6 in their final nine games of the season. It was a huge turning point in the season in what looked like a promising year at 4-0. Miami is currently an 11.5-point favorite this week, and that line could shorten should it be announced that Haynes King will be available after missing Tech’s last two games with an injury— the same quarterback who engineered the comeback win last year.
Vandy beating the odds
Vanderbilt has been underdog in five of their eight games this year and has gone a perfect 5-0 against the spread (ATS) and 3-2 straight up (SU) in those outings. Somehow, they’re 3.5-point underdogs at home against South Carolina. The Commodores have wins over Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, and only lost to Texas by three points. While they have a loss to Georgia State, Diego Pavia and Co. have the goods to get the job done. By the way, this is the same angle that Minnesota had over Illinois last week— an unranked road favorite against a ranked team (Gophers won 25-17).
Tough one for Conference USA this week
Not much to say here, but I thought it would be worth mentioning that 1-7 Kennesaw State will travel to the Sun Bowl to take on 1-8 UTEP in an ugly C-USA matchup this Saturday. Kennesaw State’s lone win this season came against a 5-0 Liberty team. It was their first win as an FBS program, and also the second-largest win by an underdog in FBS this season— defeating the Flames as a 27-point underdog. Only Northern Illinois’ win as a 28-point underdog against Notre Dame was a bigger upset.
The Big 12 upside down
The Big 12 preseason media poll had Utah, Kansas, Arizona, and Oklahoma State occupying four of the top five spots in the conference, with Kansas State being the other team. Those four teams are a combined 3-19 in Big 12 play and 12-22 overall. The three teams currently at the top of the standings are BYU (picked to finish 13th), Iowa State (picked to finish 6th), and Colorado (picked to finish 11th). Let’s not forget that Arizona State was picked to finish last and is still in the mix of things at 6-2 with a 3-2 record in conference play. This is going to be one of the more exciting Power conference title races as the season progresses.
How ’bout them Hoosiers
I know I mentioned that Indiana hasn’t played anyone of note, but they’ve demolished all of their opponents— winning every game by at least 14 points. They also have six wins by 20+ points with four of them coming by 30+. Their 296 point differential is the best of any team in FBS as is their 32.9 points per game differential. I’m very curious to see where they’ll be ranked in the CFP. Should IU be ranked ahead of teams like Miami, Texas, Penn State and Tennessee? Curt Cignetti started 10-0 last year at James Madison, and now he’s 9-0 in year one with the Hoosiers. Like he said at Big Ten media day— “Google me. I win.”
A unique Bama vs LSU matchup
This will be the first Alabama vs LSU game without either Nick Saban (coached at both programs) or Les Miles on the sideline since 1999. Both of these teams are 6-2 and need this win to strengthen their CFP resume. Since 1978, the Tide are 14-6 against the Tigers when both teams are ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll. When removing ranks from the equation, Bama is 29-17-1 against LSU in that same span, and 17-5-1 when playing in Baton Rouge. Can Kalen DeBoer’s squad get it done, or will they have to see if they can still make the CFP at 9-3 with a win over Georgia in their back pocket? Saturday will be a big one for both squads.
Can Colorado make the Big 12 title game?
Colorado faces Texas Tech in what should be Colorado’s toughest remaining game on their schedule. After the Red Raiders, they’ll face a Utes team that has lost four straight and will be without their starting quarterback for the rest of the year, and Kansas and Oklahoma State who have a combined 5-12 record. Assuming they run the table, that would put them at 10-2 and in the running for the Big 12 title game. But, if BYU wins out, it gets complicated since Kansas State and Iowa State play each other in the final game of the season. How big was that non-pass-interference call on K-State in Boulder a few weeks back? As mentioned earlier, the Big 12 race is gonna be a fun one.
A possible trifecta for Travis Hunter
Travis Hunter has 60 catches for 787 yards, eight receiving touchdowns, recorded two interceptions on defense, and yet to allow a touchdown in coverage (according to PFF). What are the chances he wins the Thorpe award, the Biletnikoff, and the Heisman? He has the second-best odds of any player for the latter, which makes the other two seem not so unattainable. This kid truly is special.
Rich Rod cruisin’
Remember Rich Rodriguez? The guy who brought West Virginia to prominence before going 15-22 in three seasons at Michigan and 43-35 in six seasons at Arizona? Well he’s in his third year at Jacksonville State, and went a combined 18-6 in his first two seasons. His 2024 team is 4-0 in CUSA play and should move to 5-0 this week against a struggling Louisiana Tech squad. They’ll be another inch closer to a berth in the conference title game as well. Might that be enough to get him a shot at another Power 4 job? Keep an eye out for the Gamecocks under Rich Rod’s lead.
Starkville a sleepy spot for Vols?
Teams have overlooked Mississippi State all season— and for good reason— as the Bulldogs are 2-7 on the year. But we’ve seen this scenario a few times this season— Jeff Lebby’s squad taking on a powerhouse the week before a big game. In Week 8, Texas A&M came to Starkville as 21.5-point favorites and only won by 10. The Aggies faced LSU in their next outing. The week before that, Mississippi State took on Georgia as 34.5-point underdogs and only lost by 10 in that game too. Kirby Smart’s team had Texas the week after. So in Week 11, Tennessee takes on Mississippi State this week as 24-point favorites— and has a massive matchup with Georgia next week. Sensing a theme here?
Utes and Cougars clash
As mentioned above, Utah lost Cam Rising for the season and has lost four straight after starting the season 4-0. Their offense has been atrocious since their losing streak began in Week 5, ranking dead last in FBS in scoring (12.5 PPG), 67th in pass yards per game (226), and 122nd in rush yards per game (95.5) in that span. So is there something to be said about the only thing really mattering at this point being the ability to ruin your rivals’ season? BYU is 8-0 and will take on Utah for the first time since 2021. The Utes have won nine of the last ten in the series, and Kyle Whittingham (a BYU alumnus himself) is 11-4 against the Cougars in his career as Utah’s head coach. Kalani Sitake’s squad is only a four-point favorite on the road in this matchup.
Bold predictions
Let’s make some bold predictions for the month of November. I’ll leave it up to you to decide how likely they are!
- Indiana will finish 12-0
- Oregon will lose at Wisconsin
- The G5 rep in the CFP will be Tulane
- SMU will win the ACC
- The team that is currently outside the top 12 but will end up making the CFP is Army
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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