NFL Week 11 odds: ‘Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda’ parlay; five bets that would’ve won big

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

While NFL Week 11 odds are in the books, the typical Monday morning quarterback conversations continue. So we at FOX Sports will offer some Tuesday morning quarterbacking for the sports betting crowd.

Week after week, the public betting masses enjoy wagering on parlays. And we get it. Betting a little to win a lot is appealing, like the lottery, or in this instance, perhaps a mini-lottery.

However, remember this, too: Parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend. That’s how they really make their money.

That being said, what if I told you that betting $10 on: the league’s leader in receiving yards and touchdown catches to score twice, a player whose scored five-or-more touchdowns in each of the last six seasons to score first, a favorite to cover a 2.5-point spread, a three-point underdog to win straight up, and a game involving the highest scoring team in the league to go over 47.5 points would profit you over $5,700?

In Week 11, it would have. With that in mind, here’s this week’s edition of …

Woulda Coulda Shoulda

With how the past few days played out, we’re gonna throw in a couple unique options for this parlay that could have been. That said: How awesome would it be to turn ten bucks into more than $5,700?

The following five-leg parlay in DraftKings Sportsbook’s Week 11 NFL odds would’ve done just that:

Ja’Marr Chase +600 to score two or more touchdowns in the Bengals–Chargers game
Taysom Hill +850 to score the first TD in the Saints–Browns game
Bills -2.5 (-122) vs. Chiefs
Steelers moneyline +148 vs. Ravens
Jaguars–Lions Over 47.5 points

When Cincinnati trailed the L.A. Chargers 27-6 early in the third quarter, it didn’t look as if Chase would get into the act at all. But the Bengals wideout had a short touchdown catch to make it 27-13 later in the third quarter. Then, early in the fourth quarter, Chase caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Joe Burrow that tied the game.

Alas, the Bengals’ huge rally fell short in a 34-27 loss. But Chase got those two touchdowns.

Hill, the Saints’ Swiss army knife of a player, opened the scoring with a 10-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. He went on to a huge day of three touchdowns – including a 75-yard run – in New Orleans’ 35-14 rout of Cleveland.

Chiefs vs. Bills was the Game of the Week, with both sides taking plenty of bets. It was a sweat for anyone who had the Bills -2.5, as Buffalo led 23-21 after a K.C. touchdown midway through the fourth quarter.

But Josh Allen rumbled for a 26-yard touchdown run to make it 30-21 with 2:17 left, and the Bills made that score stand up.

Ravens vs. Steelers was another popular game, and Pittsburgh is becoming a more popular team with the bettors as the season goes along. The home underdog Steelers stifled the Ravens’ offense and held on for an 18-16 outright victory. Tomlin is now 8-2 in his last 10 meetings against Baltimore.

As for the Jacksonville-Detroit Over? Well, the Lions did all that work, piling up seven touchdowns on the way to a 52-6 bashing of the Jaguars.

Add it all up, and you’ve got hefty odds of +57192, or just about 572/1. So that 10-dollar bill turns in a healthy profit of $5,719.20.

To reiterate, there’s a reason odds are so long on these types of bets. And bookmakers want nothing more than for you to add more and more legs to your parlay tickets.

So wager accordingly. If you’re just taking a weekly flier with 10 or 20 bucks, then that’s all well and good. If you’re borrowing against your next car payment, well, that’s not good. Keep it reasonable!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.