Four outta five wasn’t bad two weeks ago.
One outta five last week is bad.
Clemson getting stuffed on third and fourth down from the 1-yard line to stay outside the number against Texas was infuriating. It’s the best when teams need a single yard and line their quarterback up deep in the shotgun.
Anyway …
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I’ve got three NFL bets and one College Football Playoff wager for this weekend’s picks. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-teamers. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (39-40, -4.8 units)
Falcons @ Commanders (-4, O/U 47.5)
It was about time the Falcons made the move to rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. His ability to push the ball down the field is a big need for an offense that became pretty defensible with the immobile and banged-up Kirk Cousins. The Commanders are flying high after upsetting the Eagles last Sunday, and you’re certainly paying a premium off that decision. Take the points.
PICK: Falcons (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points, or win outright
Nick’s Picks for Week 17: Broncos underdogs, Vikings favorites
Packers @ Vikings (-1, O/U 48.5)
Wise guys love the Packers in the macro and micro and it makes sense. I wrote about “America’s Game of the Week” for FOX earlier this week and these two teams are almost equal on a neutral. Thing is, I don’t think Minnesota’s home field is getting enough credit. That building is a different animal when the Vikings are good, and I think their defense will make enough plays to win.
PICK: Vikings (-1) to win by more than 1 point
Cardinals @ Rams (-6.5, O/U 47.5)
Speaking of premiums, the Rams are laying how many points?! I know favorites are dominating this NFL season and the Cardinals technically don’t have anything to play for, but this is ridiculous. I don’t believe Arizona is going to lie on the railroad tracks and get run over, and I refuse to believe Los Angeles is a touchdown better than a division rival. I guess we’ll see.
PICK: Cardinals (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
CFB Bowl Games Best Bets: Iowa State vs. Miami, Penn State vs. Boise State
Notre Dame vs. Georgia (-2, O/U 44)
Perhaps I’m a little biased here since I’m holding a Notre Dame ticket at 10-1 to win the national title. I still thought since the bracket was released that Notre Dame was strong enough defensively to smother Indiana’s offense and handle Georgia backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. And please miss me with the “he’s better than Carson Beck” nonsense. The Irish tend to catch a ton of flack for being perennially overrated, but I truly believe the defense and running game are on a different level this year.
PICK: Notre Dame (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points, or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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