Four outta five ain’t bad.
That’s the way the cookie crumbled for us last weekend and if Carolina would’ve beaten Dallas, I’d be gushing about a 5-0 sweep. Close but no cigar.
As for this weekend, I’ve got two college football wagers and three NFL bets. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-teamers. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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2024 Record: (38-36, -1.4 units)
Ohio State (-7, O/U 46.5) vs. Tennessee
Does everybody like Tennessee here? Good Lord. It’s the most popular play in my gambling circles, and it’s not even close. Tennessee to cover, Tennessee to win — lock it up. And did you hear Ohio State lost to Michigan last month? Now that we’re sitting -7 (-115) at DraftKings, I’m fading the room and betting the Buckeyes. Give me that defense against Nico Iamaleava in the elements.
PICK: Ohio State (-7) to win by more than 7 points
Texas (-12.5, O/U 50.5) vs. Clemson
Steve Sarkisian has two bowl victories in his college head coaching career. They both came in the Holiday Bowl. Ryan Day, James Franklin and Marcus Freeman are easy targets, yet Sarkisian’s team is the biggest favorite in this round of the playoffs. Hmmm. I’ve said for weeks that the Longhorns’ best quarterback is on the bench, and I’m happy to take the points with Clemson.
PICK: Clemson (+12.5) to lose by fewer than 12.5 points, or win outright
Texas: Should the Longhorns play Arch Manning in the CFP?
Steelers @ Ravens (-6.5, O/U 44.5)
George Pickens is not playing, but I expect T.J. Watt to lace ‘em up for the Black and Gold. Mike Tomlin is famously profitable in the underdog role and these games between Baltimore and Pittsburgh tend to be decided by four points or fewer. And while it’s not the biggest sample size, Lamar Jackson is 0-5 against the spread (ATS) against the Steelers as a starter. I refuse to overthink this one.
PICK: Steelers (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
One Vegas bookmaker told me the Bears are the biggest need for his shop. I assure you he’s not the only one who’ll need Chicago to keep it interesting. It’s hard to believe this is only the second time Detroit has played outside this year, and it’ll certainly be the first one in 30-degree weather. Here’s hoping Caleb Williams can move the ball against that banged-up Lions defense.
PICK: Bears (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points, or win outright
Bills-Lions, Vikings-Chargers highlight Colin’s Top 5 Must-See SBLIX matchups
Patriots @ Bills (-14, O/U 46.5)
Does New England do anything well? I read a scathing column in the Boston Herald this week about how the “House of Kraft” turned into House of Cards without Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Amen. The Patriots have a quarterback in Drake Maye, but there’s not much else to like. His protection is awful, and his weapons are minimal. The Bills could name their score if they choose.
PICK: Bills (-14) to win by more than 14 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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