With less than a month to go in the NFL regular season, teams are left with four games to improve their seeding heading into January, while others are fighting for just the chance to play in the postseason.
The Chiefs aren’t earning many style points along the way, but with the Bills’ loss in L.A. last Sunday, the defending champs sit at 12-1 and a game and a half clear of the Bills for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
On the NFC side, the Lions also have just one loss, but they will need to navigate a treacherous schedule over the final four weeks to hang on to their grip of the top seed.
The race for MVP is perhaps over after last week, as even in defeat, Josh Allen posted a combined six touchdowns against the Rams. He’s now a -500 favorite (bet $5 to win $1) to win the award for the first time.
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Last year, Lamar Jackson was a long shot with just a few weeks to go, and a late surge helped him snag the honor. However, barring a collapse, Allen is in good shape to win and is rightfully the big favorite.
But is there another market where the favorite is vulnerable?
Glad you asked.
Nick’s Week 15 Tiers: 49ers & Bengals facing elimination; Dolphins & Colts hanging on a thread
Ravens to win AFC North (+185)
The Steelers are in first place and have a two-game lead over the Ravens. They also have an advantage in the tiebreaker, considering the head-to-head defeat of the Ravens, as well as a better conference record.
However, let’s look at the remaining schedules.
The Ravens are the biggest favorite of the year this week against the Giants. They then host the Steelers, giving Baltimore a chance to make up a game with a win. The Ravens finish with games against the Texans and Browns.
Meanwhile, the Steelers face the ultimate gauntlet.
They have road games against the Eagles and Ravens. Then they finish the season playing the Chiefs and Bengals.
Eagles vs. Steelers preview: What would a win mean for Pittsburgh?
The Steelers have a significant lead with four games left to play. But the same logic and schedule-based projections that pointed me to the Bucs at +400 a few weeks ago to win the NFC South — a division they are now heavy favorites in — leads me to taking a shot at the Ravens +185 to come from behind and steal the AFC North.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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