The sportsbook universe agreed: The final game Sunday was make-or-break in the NFL Week 13 odds market.
Yes, the Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs would determine the winners and losers for the day.
And in the end, it went the bettors’ way.
Even though Kansas City didn’t cover the spread, the Chiefs just winning — once again in crazy, close fashion — clinched plenty of moneyline wagers for the public betting masses.
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“If we’d gotten the Chargers outright, it would’ve been huge, a game-day-saving decision for us,” Prime Sportsbook executive chair Joe Brennan Jr. said. “We could’ve afforded to put off that strict ramen-only diet for another week.”
Instead, it appears Brennan and perhaps others will dine on cheap noodles tonight.
Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
Doink of Delight for the Public
The Chargers were a lucky bounce away from going into Kansas City and squeaking out a 17-16 victory as 4.5-point road underdogs. But the lucky bounce went the way of the Chiefs.
Matthew Wright, the Chiefs’ third-string kicker, had his last-second 31-yard field-goal attempt clank off the left upright, but the ball redirected through the uprights. So Kansas City won 19-17. Pregame, this was the outcome South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews was dreading.
“We’re up pretty good for the day. But if we lose this one, it’s gonna wipe out a whole bunch of that. We need the Chargers pretty big,” Andrews said just before kickoff. “Chargers outright is the key. We’ve got a lot of Chiefs moneyline action.”
That’s because bettors have come to realize that the Chiefs don’t cover point spreads. They just win games. K.C. has failed to cover in its last seven outings.
So the public bets K.C. on the moneyline, either on standard straight bets or more predominantly in moneyline parlays.
It was little consolation for bookmakers when L.A. covered the spread.
“We certainly would’ve been better off with the Chargers outright,” said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook.
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Bills Don’t Pay
Unlike the Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills actually win games and cover the spread. So the public is happy to back the Bills in all ways, on the point spread, in parlays and moneyline parlays.
Buffalo entered Week 14 on a seven-game win streak, going 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in that stretch. In Week 14 NFL odds at BetMGM, no team took more point-spread bets than the Bills, who were 3.5-point road favorites vs. the Los Angeles Rams.
Josh Allen & Co. were plenty popular elsewhere, too, including at The SuperBook. But the Rams were up to the task, winning a track meet 44-42.
“The Rams game was a big win for us,” Murray said. “We had a very good late window. We swept the board in those games.”
The other two matchups in that late window:
- San Francisco 49ers posted a 38-13 rout against the trendy 3-point underdog Chicago Bears, which was a winner for The SuperBook.
- The Seattle Seahawksearned a 30-18 win as 3-point ‘dogs at the Arizona Cardinals.
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Jilted by the Jets
The New York Jets looked as if they might win in Week 14, as 6.5-point road underdogs vs. the Miami Dolphins. New York took a 26-23 lead on a 42-yard field goal with 52 seconds left.
But enough time remained for Miami to counter with a 52-yard field goal to tie it at 26 and force overtime. The Dolphins then won 32-26 in OT.
It was another situation where, even though Miami didn’t cover, bettors still did well. Anyone who had Miami on the moneyline — in straight bets or parlays — lived on, and the Dolphins were also popular in teaser bets. Teasers are similar to parlays, but bettors get an adjusted point spread. Six-point teasers are the most common, which would’ve taken the Dolphins from -6.5 to ostensibly a pick ‘em.
So bookmakers wanted a New York upset.
“We needed the Jets big time. The Browns or the Raiders would have been nice. All day, we needed something to come through for us to knock down all our teaser action, and it never came,” Brennan said.
Added Murray: “The Jets blowing that game was really disappointing.”
And Andrews felt the sting at South Point.
“We needed the Jets. That was huge,” he said.
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On Campus
The most notable games in college football Week 15 odds were the SEC and Big Ten title tilts. Oregon was a 3.5-point favorite vs. Penn State in the Big Ten final and won 45-37. In the SEC final, Georgia was a 3-point underdog and pulled the mild upset of Texas 22-19 in overtime.
“It was like a break-even day for us,” Andrews said. “Penn State not covering was bad for us. Everybody had Oregon. But Georgia was really good for us.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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