We’re past the Thanksgiving Day games in the NFL. And while the leftovers are gone, there is plenty of football left to enjoy.
With that in mind, I’m wagering on a few Sunday games, as we head toward Christmas and beyond.
Let’s dive into my best bets for Week 14.
(All times ET)
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SUNDAY, DEC. 8
Saints @ Giants (1 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)
This is absolutely a fade of the New Orleans Saints.
A dome team on the road, in a cold weather stadium, after losing its best offensive weapon? Sign me up.
The Saints are 4-8 and are ranked 20th in overall team DVOA. Just a below average team with a quarterback in Derek Carr, who has the most losses for a starting quarterback through 11 seasons in NFL history. The Saints are already down a bunch of offensive weapons, and now they are without Taysom Hill, who’s been their offensive workhorse for weeks now. The Saints will just struggle to move the ball this weekend.
The Giants are horrendous and wagering on them will not be fun. But it’s absolutely the right side here. The Giants went to Drew Lock at quarterback, which gives them a better chance to win than Tommy Cutlets. The Giants do have some skill position players with talent and if they can get the ball in their hands, they should be able to score some points.
Five and a half points is just too much for the Saints in this spot. Take the ugly ‘dog.
PICK: Giants (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points, or win outright
Herd Hierarchy: Seahawks fly to the Top 10, Broncos and Eagles move up in Week 14
Bills @ Rams (4:25 p.m., FOX/FOX Sports App)
The Buffalo Bills have won seven in a row and look like the most dominant team in the NFL. They just manhandled the short-handed 49ers on Sunday Night Football in a snow storm. The Bills are up to third in DVOA, and quarterback Josh Allen is the MVP favorite. Buffalo has wrapped up its division but can not take its foot off the gas because it does not have the No. 1 seed yet. However, this weekend is a prime let down spot. It’s a cross-country trip after a national TV game against a Rams team that you can not take lightly.
When the Rams have a healthy Matt Stafford with all his weapons, they are a hard out. They can score points in different ways and their young defense is aggressive and will pressure Allen. Of course, Allen can do the ridiculous things he always does, and that can hurt any opponent looking to cover the spread — but I’m going to take the Rams in a specific spot where I just like them. The Rams also need to win to keep pace in the NFC West with Seattle and Arizona.
PICK: Rams (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points, or win outright
Tom Brady’s 3 Stars of Week 13: Russell Wilson, Leonard Williams, Bucky Irving
Raiders @ Buccaneers (1 p.m., CBS)
Tampa Bay survived against the Panthers in a game it absolutely should have lost. That is how the NFL works some weekends, and it shouldn’t alter your handicap for the following weekend if it’s not a trend. And it’s not a trend for the Bucs, who stomped the Giants the weekend before. Tampa Bay is playing for the NFC South each weekend, while the Raiders are playing for the first pick in the draft. Tampa Bay is 15th in DVOA while the Raiders are 28th. There is no position on the field where the Raiders are better than the Bucs.
Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell is making back-to-back road starts after a mistake to end the Chiefs game on Black Friday. O’Connell isn’t a good quarterback and is just a patch for the rest of the season until the Raiders can draft someone else. O’Connell has played in eight road games, and he’s 1-7 in those eight contests; six touchdowns and six interceptions on 226 pass attempts. His QB rating is low, and he doesn’t complete a ton of passes. I do not like this against this Bucs team.
PICK: Buccaneers (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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