NFL Week 15 odds have a couple of very spicy matchups, most notably the Buffalo Bills vs. the Detroit Lions. That game could very well be a preview of the Super Bowl.
Per usual, the public betting masses lean toward the Lions. But more so, they’re expecting a lot of points on Sunday.
“The vast majority of money is on the Over. Both of these offenses are lights out. It’s indoors, so this screams Over,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Bills vs. Lions and more, as we dive into NFL Week 15 betting nuggets.
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Game of the Week
Detroit is atop the NFL along with Kansas City, as both teams are 12-1 straight up (SU). The Lions failed to cover the point spread in their last two games. But still, they’ve been virtually a PIN-less ATM for bettors dating to November 2022.
Detroit is 9-3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and 34-9 SU/32-10-1 ATS in its last 43 games. Any team covering the spread 76% of the time will certainly get the attention of the recreational betting crowd.
That’s the case so far with Bills-Lions at Caesars Sports, where the Lions are 2.5-point favorites for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Detroit opened -3 and initially slid down to -1.5 by Monday evening. But action on the Lions pushed them to -2 on Tuesday and -2.5 early Wednesday.
“No surprise, we’re seeing more money come in on the Lions,” Feazel said, while again noting the total — which opened at 53.5, already got as high as 55 and is now 54.5 — is what’s really drawing action. “The Lions defense is banged up, and the Bills defense had a meltdown against the Rams last week.”
Detroit barely won a Week 14 shootout vs. Green Bay, 34-31. Buffalo (10-3 SU/8-5 ATS) engaged in a track meet with the Los Angeles Rams and fell just short, 44-42.
“I suspect the book will need the Under,” Feazel said, in the understatement of the week.
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NFL Rocks On FOX
FOX will have Sunday’s other marquee matchup, and it’s again a nonconference clash: the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, going head-to-head with Bills-Lions at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS) spent the first half of this week toggling between -4.5/-5. Pittsburgh (10-3 SU and ATS) continues to surprise both on the field and at the betting window.
But early bettors are on the home favorite.
“It’s a very good matchup; two very good teams, both are flying high. But we’re still seeing a majority of Eagles money on the spread in this spot,” Feazel said. “And a lot of Under money. They’re expecting a defensive game, and weather could be an issue, too.”
The forecast indicates a possibility of light rain on Sunday evening. The total opened at 44.5 and by midweek, was down to 42.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay threw out another 3-0 dart in Week 14, winning on the Packers +3.5, Panthers +13.5 and Rams +4.5.
In Week 15 NFL odds, McKay is on the aforementioned Steelers +5 vs. the Eagles.
“A Keystone State rival getting more than a field goal looks good. Turnover-free football is key,” McKay said. “This is a look-ahead spot for both teams.”
Pittsburgh travels to Baltimore in Week 16, while Philly is at Washington.
Is this Mike Tomlin’s most impressive season coaching the Steelers?
McKay is also on the Bills-Lions showdown, taking Detroit at home -2.
“It’s the Lions’ third straight home game, and they didn’t cover in the first two. But I believe they will here,” McKay said. “It’s Buffalo’s poor run defense vs. the No. 1 offensive line in football. I’ve been against the Bills this year. I still believe their defense is their weakness.”
Finally, McKay likes the Seattle Seahawks +3 at home vs. the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night.
“Possible rain game here, so keep an eye on the weather report,” McKay said. “Seattle’s defense is getting used to first-year head coach Mike Macdonald’s system, with wins vs. the 49ers and Cards.
“Green Bay is coming off a tough loss to Detroit and [now] runs into a Seattle team that has gotten more healthy on the offensive line.”
Speaking of Packers vs. Seahawks …
Sunday Night In Seattle
Caesars Sports opened Green Bay -2.5 (-115), went to -3 (-105) on Monday, then early Wednesday dipped to -2.5 (-120). As of Wednesday night, the point spread is Packers -3 (even). And a major wager impacted the number.
“We saw a big Seattle wager come in at +3 (-120), for $120,000. So that’s the majority of the action so far. We need the Packers in this spot right now,” Feazel said.
However, as the weekend arrives and kickoff nears, expect the public betting masses to flock toward Green Bay.
“There’s been a very big love affair with the Packers throughout the year. We even saw a decent amount of money on Green Bay against Detroit,” Feazel said. “I expect to see a lot more Packers money as we lead into game day.”
Herd Hierarchy: Bills move down, Rams move in Top 10 heading into Week 15
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
The aforementioned $120,000 is one of three early six-figure bets on NFL Week 15 odds at Caesars Sports. If that Seahawks +3 (-120) wager cashes, then the customer will profit $100,000 (total payout $220,000).
The other two wagers are on NFC West teams:
- $110,000 Rams +3 vs. 49ers. If Los Angeles just loses by less than 3 at San Francisco — or if the Rams win outright, of course — then the bettor profits $100,000 ($210,000 total payout).
- $110,000 Cardinals -5.5 vs. Patriots. An Arizona win by 6 or more at home vs. New England will give this customer a $100,000 profit (total payout $210,000).
Beyond that, how about recounting a smaller bet that won relatively big money in Week 14?
A Caesars customer put $50 on a 12-team parlay, combining seven moneyline favorites with five Overs. It was a John Q. Public bet if there ever was one.
But it hit:
The Cincinnati Bengals clinched the parlay with a 27-20 win over the Dallas Cowboys, thanks to some crazy blocked-punt/muff/fumble-recovery antics late in the game. But when you cash out for a profit of $17,532, how you got there doesn’t really matter.
May the Week 15 NFL odds market bring similar luck to you. Enjoy the games.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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