2024 NFL Week 16 picks, predictions: Fade red-hot Vikings, back Bills to cover

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We’re knee-deep into the part of the year when a few teams are fighting for seeding in their respective conferences. Watching squads in those scenarios is always interesting because the stakes are so high.

I’ve got my eye on one of those games in particular — Vikings vs. Seahawks. There’s a wager that I think you all should consider making on this matchup, and it might surprise you.

Let’s dive into my best bets for NFL Week 16.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, DEC. 22

Patriots @ Bills (1 p.m., CBS)

The Buffalo Bills are a huge favorite this weekend. Over the last three seasons, this Bills squad has dominated bad opponents at home.

This year, they beat the Jaguars by 37, the Titans by 24 and the 49ers by 25 points. Last season, it was the Raiders by 28 and Jets by 24 points.

You get the idea.

Now, with any system, there are some losses. The Bills barely sneaked past the Giants in this spot last season and the Patriots late in the season. However, I like the Bills for two other reasons in this game.

The Patriots stink and are void of any good players, outside a handful — if that hand only had two fingers. Those two guys are quarterback Drake Maye and cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Everyone else is either hurt or not good.

The Patriots have lost four in a row, with two closer losses at home and two blowouts on the road. They were off a bye last weekend, then got blown out by the Cardinals.

Simply put, they’re just very bad.

On Buffalo’s side, you’ve got Josh Allen. He’s the clear favorite to win the MVP this season. Every game, Allen’s looking to prove he’s the best QB on the planet. He’s on an insane heater right now, and the Patriots do not have the pieces on defense to stop him.

Plus, the Bills defense is bad right now, so Allen must continue to let it loose to help his team win games.

I am a tad worried about the Bills defense over the length of the game holding up to cover the 14, but I’m going to wager on them getting a huge lead and forcing Maye into turnovers down the stretch as he’s trying to make plays.

PICK: Bills (-14) to win by more than 14 points

Can Josh Allen lead the Bills to the Super Bowl?

Vikings @ Seahawks (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Love this spot. We get to back the home Seahawks against a dome team that’s going to play outside in the cold weather of the Pacific Northwest.

The Vikings are riding high after beating the Bears 30-12 on Monday night. If they win their final three games — including a Week 18 matchup against the Lions — they are the No. 1 seed. The Vikings have not been in this situation with Sam Darnold at quarterback and all eyeballs are on the franchise.

And the truth is that I like to fade teams that have not experienced the pressure of making this late-December run for the top seed.

The Vikings have played at home three straight weeks after a three-week road trip that saw close wins in Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago. Darnold and the Minnesota offense were not sharp in those games, and he’s completing fewer passes with fewer touchdowns and more interceptions on the road this season.

The forecast calls for rain Sunday in Seattle. What a shocker.

Again: A dome team outside in the rain trying to live up to huge expectations? That’s exactly the kind of team I like to fade.

When we look at Seattle, it’s difficult to pinpoint what the Seahawks do well. Do we even know which Seattle team will show up this weekend? The Seahawks needed a pick-six to beat the Cardinals and the Jets. Then, they smashed the Cardinals in Arizona before being embarrassed by the Packers on Sunday night.

They got bowled over from kickoff against the Packers, who scored touchdowns on their two opening drives. The Seahawks looked lost and played awful, including quarterback Geno Smith, who went down with a knee injury. But I expect him to play this weekend.

Seattle needs to win to keep pace in the NFC West and after that embarrassment on Sunday night, the team will play better.

PICK: Seahawks (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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