College Football Playoff: Takeaways and predictions from 12-team CFP bracket reveal

RJ Young

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff bracket has been revealed.

All eyes were on how the CFP selection committee was going to value Mountain West champion Boise State, Big 12 champion Arizona State and ACC champion Clemson, and which program was going to receive the final spot in the CFP between SMU and Alabama.

We got our answers, as the Broncos received the No. 3 seed in the CFP bracket, while the Sun Devils were rewarded with the No. 4 seed. Both teams will receive first-round byes. Meanwhile, Clemson, fresh off a win over SMU in the ACC title game, is the No. 12 seed and will travel to Austin, Texas, to take on the Longhorns in a first-round game.

As for the SMU vs. Alabama debate – the committee favored the Mustangs, rewarding Rhett Lashleee’s team with the No. 11 seed, setting up an opening-round game against Penn State.

Here is a look at my top takeaways from the bracket reveal:

1. CFP committee values Group of 5 champion over Big 12, ACC champs

The College Football Playoff selection committee has shown it does not value the quality of play in the Big 12 or ACC more than it does the Mountain West. Boise State, a Group of 5 champion, was seeded ahead of Big 12 champion Arizona State and ACC champion Clemson.

The Broncos have just one loss. But their one loss came to the No. 1 team in the country, on the last play of the game. This while talisman and Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty rushed for 192 yards.

However, the Sun Devils came out on top in a league that finished with a four-way tie for first place, while the Tigers knocked off an 11-win SMU team in the ACC Championship Game.

2. SEC, Big Ten show their dominance

The SEC and Big Ten are the most dominant leagues in the sport, with seven of the 12 teams coming from those conferences. The No. 1 seed in the CFP – Oregon – is a Big Ten team, while the No. 2 seed – Georgia – is an SEC program. This leads us to believe the committee expects these teams to finish in the national title game, which would be a rematch of the 2022 matchup when Georgia dominated Oregon, 49-3, in Atlanta.

3. Texas gets rewarded with the No. 5 seed

Texas gets the honor of playing a home playoff game and the coveted No. 5 seed. The Longhorns will host ACC champion Clemson in what is sure to be a rematch worthy of Friday Night Lights. The 2021 Texas state championship game between Southlake Carroll and Austin Westlake ended with Cade Klubnik’s Chaparrals beating Quinn Ewers’ Dragons, 52-34. Klubnik and Ewers will now get the chance to face off again, this time in a first-round matchup in Austin.

Now that the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is set, here are my predictions:

FIRST-ROUND BYES

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Ohio State vs. 9. Tennessee)

2. Georgia: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Indiana)

3. Boise State: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Penn State vs. 11. SMU)

4. Arizona State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Texas vs. 12. Clemson)

FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS

5. Texas vs. 12. Clemson

The Longhorns are coming off an emotional loss to Georgia, while the Tigers are coming off a brilliant ACC title win against an SMU team that also made the 12-team field. Texas’ defense will need to show it can stop Klubnik from escaping the pocket and hurting them in the run-game like Georgia backup QB Gunner Stockton did in the SEC Championship Game.

Winner: Texas.

6. Penn State vs. 11. SMU

The Nittany Lions believe they have the kind of physical team capable of imposing their will on a smaller SMU team. But with Brashard Smith putting together the best season by an SMU tailback since Eric Dickerson, the Mustangs might feel they can run through the PSU front seven and stretch the secondary with Kevin Jennings’ partnership with Roderick McDaniel.

Winner: Penn State.

7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Indiana

The Fighting Irish will face the most complete team they’ve seen all year in Indiana. The Hoosiers have beaten 10 out of 12 opponents by double-digits and believe they are the best team in the state of Indiana. However, Al Golden’s defense has been outstanding, allowing only one team to score 35 points in a game this season.

Winner: Indiana.

8. Ohio State vs. 9. Tennessee

The Buckeyes have a chance to redeem themselves in front of their fans at the Shoe with Tennessee set to travel to Columbus, Ohio. They’ll have to do it against the best tailback in the SEC in Vols running back Dylan Sampson, who has rushed for 1,485 yards this season.

The Buckeyes have allowed 169 rushing yards per game this season, but they have been stingy about teams scoring, featuring the top-ranked scoring defense in the country.

Winner: Ohio State.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube

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