QB Stock Market Week 17: Jayden Daniels, Bryce Young carving improbable paths

Henry McKenna

NFL Reporter

There is no single way to win a game as a quarterback.

Lamar Jackson is doing it differently than Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. No one is doing it like Anthony Richardson (though he’s not always winning). No rookie has ever done it quite like Jayden Daniels, with his flare for dramatic finishes. And Bryce Young has made a comeback from his “bust” label in a way we’ve never quite seen before.

It feels like a week when QBs around the NFL embraced their uniqueness. And that’s what makes this year’s crop of quarterbacks special.

Happy Holidays from the QB Stock Market, where we weigh the most recent performances with 30% importance, while applying 70% to the rest of 2024. One question holds importance above all others: What have you done for your team lately?

Previous weeks: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16

1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (⬆️ 1)

We’ll never know, exactly, what this offense could’ve looked like if Diontae Johnson hadn’t been such a bonehead. The Ravens and Johnson had the composition of an ugly Christmas sweater. And now Johnson is a free agent.

But maybe Lamar didn’t need him after all.

Mark Andrews is rounding into form and looks increasingly comfortable after his ankle injury. I’m not sure Zay Flowers or Rashod Bateman are WR1 material. But in many of the same ways that the Buffalo Bills live by the “everyone eats” mantra, the Ravens rotate between Andrews, Flowers, Bateman and Isaiah Likely with a regular and terrifying injection of Derrick Henry. It’s still the nightmarish unit that left us awestruck when the Ravens added Henry. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken is doing some fantastical stuff — so much so that Baltimore shook the narrative that they couldn’t beat the Steelers.

The rare threat of a Jackson-Henry rushing attack is largely what has Jackson throwing to a wide-open receiver on 35.4% of his throws, most in the NFL, and an open receiver on 59.7% of his throws, also most in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. I wonder if those statistics are what might tank his MVP chances — because Josh Allen has had to do more with less.

But, getting back to Johnson, I wonder if the desire to add him betrayed an insecurity: Can the Ravens beat the Chiefs with what they’ve got? Can they beat the Bills again?

I don’t have the answer. I just know the AFC playoff bracket is going to be electric.

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (⬇️ 1)
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (↔)
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (↔)
5. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (⬆️ 1)
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (⬆️ 2)

Was that urgency versus the Broncos last Thursday? Was that desperation?

Herbert is so calm, cool and collected that it was rare to see so much energy emanating from the Chargers QB — and it forced out more creativity than we’ve seen from him all season.

Maybe that’s why tight end Stone Smartt laughed during Herbert’s pump-up speech before the game. Herbert responded: “What the f— are you laughing at?” We just haven’t seen this side of Herbert. It’s surprising.

First of all, he threw a bad interception because he misplaced the ball to Joshua Palmer and that allowed cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine to step in for the takeaway. It was an aggressive decision: Herbert trying to take more than what the defense was giving him. But his early mistake didn’t stop him from trying again later.

In fact, Herbert got greedier in the fourth quarter. And that gave way to a rare bit of creativity. We saw a splash of Mahomes and Allen’s wild side — just a pour of whiskey in Herbert’s eggnog to make things interesting. He faded left out of the pocket and whipped the ball vertically upfield for a touchdown. It wasn’t how they drew it up. But it was a touchdown.

My favorite throw from Herbert was actually the one that traveled the shortest distance, however. The QB flipped the ball forward to running back Hassan Haskins. And because the Broncos had all-out blitzed, that was all Herbert needed. It didn’t need to be a bullet through zone or a perfectly placed man-beater. No, this ball simply needed to get from point A to point B. Haskins generated all 34 yards after the catch and ran into the end zone.

And it wasn’t because Herbert made some magical throw. It was about getting the ball out to the right place and at the right moment. It was urgency. This all bodes well for the Chargers as the playoffs approach.

7. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (⬆️ 2)
8. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (⬇️ 3)
9. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (⬆️ 2)

I usually have a lot to say about each guy. As Bill Simmons once said: I burp and 1,000 words come out. So maybe this section on Daniels will be refreshing. I’ll try to be brief.

Here’s a video of all five of his NFL-leading touchdowns in roughly the final two minutes of games.

Here’s his Week 16 passing chart, where his five touchdown passes helped him overcome the team’s five turnovers (including two interceptions from him).

He has a rare blend of finishing abilities and electric play. He can elevate a supporting cast that isn’t wildly impressive past Terry McLaurin. (Jamison Crowder and Olamide Zaccheaus each scored two touchdowns on Sunday, after all.) The numbers might not say “best rookie season ever,” but Daniels is in that conversation.

10. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (↔)
12. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (⬇️ 5)
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (↔)
14. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (↔)
15. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (⬇️ 3)
16. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (⬆️ 2)
17. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (⬆️ 5)

In a win over the Cardinals, Young did a better job playing like peak Kyler Murray than Murray himself. And Young’s breakout performances just keep coming.

Is it fair to say that what Bryce Young is doing is unprecedented?

It’s hard to think of another first-round QB going from zero to hero quite like this. Tua Tagovailoa? He was a better passer than Young his rookie year. Josh Allen? A much more valuable runner. The closest comparison might be Jared Goff, who was an utter disaster his first season. But he turned things around immediately in year 2, upon Sean McVay’s arrival.

Young’s struggles are unique in that they continued this year. If the Panthers were hoping that Dave Canales would boost Young like McVay did Goff, then Carolina must have been discouraged. Until the benching. That legitimately seemed to change everything. Because since that move, Young has been special.

There can’t be any question about what the Panthers will do next. They’ll build around him.

You can clearly see what Young can do with NFL talent when he’s targeting Adam Theilen. Young has completed 76% of his passes to Theilen for 9.2 yards per attempt with a 6% touchdown rate. That’s freaking nasty! Theilen is a good receiver, but he’s on the tail end of his career and no longer in his prime. Imagine what Young can do with a good offensive line and an elite receiver. Here’s hoping we find out with a strong Panthers offseason.

18. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (⬇️ 2)
19. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (⬇️ 2)
20. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (⬇️ 1)
21. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (⬆️ 8)
22. Drake Maye, New England Patriots (↔)
23. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (⬇️ 2)

If it were possible for me to fast-forward to 2025 for one player and one player only, I’d pick Williams. He’s so blatantly not the problem in Chicago.

He has now lost nine starts in which he threw zero interceptions, the most in NFL history, per NFL research. He has gone 326 passes without an interception, the longest ever by a rookie (by 100 passes). I just wish comedian Robin Williams was still alive so we could send him to Chicago to pat Williams on the back and say, “It’s not your fault,” until everyone breaks down in tears.

I’ve watched Williams aplenty. I don’t always like what I see. And he hasn’t made progress in all the ways that you’d hope. But as the Lions beat the snot out of the Bears on Sunday, Chicago could take solace in one thing: Maybe OC Ben Johnson will someday be the Bears head coach. And maybe Williams will soon get the support he needs from scheme — and from his offensive line.

24. Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons (new)

This is exactly what you’d want in a rookie’s outing. And it had nothing to do with Penix. That was actually what made the debut virtually perfect for the Falcons QB.

The defense scored two touchdowns and allowed just seven points. The running backs put up 116 yards and two touchdowns. Penix enjoyed a modest outing where he didn’t have to do a whole lot: 18 of 27 for 202 yards and an interception. The interception wasn’t on Penix — it was an on-target pass that Kyle Pitts juggled directly to a defender.

During the Lions and Bears game, FOX analyst Jonathan Vilma asked, “Are they winning because of you or in spite of you?”

Over the past several weeks, it was clear Atlanta was winning in spite of Kirk Cousins. His turnovers were putting the Falcons in a position where they couldn’t lean into their strengths. That’s why Penix took over. But Vilma’s assessment left out another category: net neutral.

Penix’s EPA was 8.1. His CPOE was -3.1%. His average depth of target was 6.1. What that all means: Penix didn’t get in the way.

That was all he had to do against the league’s worst team. It was the perfect week to welcome the rookie into the NFL. But next week? Well, it’s about to get real against the Washington Commanders, who might make things uncomfortable for Penix with a playoff berth on the line for both sides. That’s when we’ll have to return to Vilma’s question.

25. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys (⬇️ 1)
26. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (⬇️ 6)
27. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (⬇️ 2)
28. Mason Rudolph, Tennessee Titans (new)
29. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (⬇️ 4)
30. Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints (new)
31. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Cleveland Browns (new)
32. Drew Lock, New York Giants (↔)

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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