Why now is the time for Falcons to bench Kirk Cousins, start rookie Michael Penix Jr.

Greg Auman

NFL Reporter

Should the Kirk Cousins era in Atlanta already be over?

The 36-year-old quarterback, signed with much fanfare to a $180 million free-agent contract this spring, has struggled through the worst month of his NFL career, throwing eight interceptions without a single touchdown in the Falcons’ four-game losing streak.

Atlanta, once staked to a three-game lead in the NFC South and a clear path to end a six-year playoff drought, is now on the outside looking in. The Bucs have won three straight and now control their destiny to win a fourth straight division title, despite the Falcons being the oddsmakers’ favorite all summer and easily the team to beat a month ago.

There figures to be less patience afforded to Cousins because Atlanta has rookie Michael Penix Jr. on the sidelines, having used the No. 8 overall pick this year to take the franchise’s quarterback of the future. As soon as the Falcons did that, they set up the possibility for controversy, should Cousins stumble and fall short of the lofty expectations that come with such a huge contract.

It’s been a horrific four-game spell for Cousins. Going back to 1980, there are only three times that any quarterback has thrown more interceptions without a touchdown pass in a four-game stretch. Ryan Leaf had 10 picks in 1998, Eric Kramer had nine in 1999 and Brett Favre had nine in 2005. To be clear, Atlanta’s problems are hardly limited to the quarterback, as in the same four-game skid, opposing quarterbacks have 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Falcons.

“Kirk Cousins is our quarterback,” coach Raheem Morris said adamantly after Sunday’s loss. “We’ll have the ability to go watch this tape like we do every single week. Kirk played significantly better than he did the week before. … We’ll do whatever is best to go win football games, and Kirk is definitely a part of that.”

Cousins has owned his poor play, taking accountability for his mistakes and maintaining a positive outlook that he and the team can turn things around in the final four games.

“I would love to be playing with a lot more production, and it’s been disappointing the last four weeks to not have a touchdown pass,” he said Sunday. “I would like that to be different. I hope that we can, in the last stretch here of the season, turn that around.”

Were the Falcons locked in that this would only be a redshirt year for Penix? Like any backup quarterback, he’s gotten a tiny fraction of the practice reps over the past four months, but if you’re talented enough to be a top-10 draft pick, there’s an expectation of being able to handle the spotlight regardless. If Cousins were injured, the Falcons would trust Penix without hesitation, so why not consider him as a suitable alternative to the QB1’s persistent struggles?

The timing is almost ideal for a change. Atlanta is on the road this week, but at the Raiders, who have the worst record in the NFL and rank 29th in scoring defense. While having three takeaways against the Bucs on Sunday, Las Vegas has just eight all season, matching the lowest total in the NFL. After that, it’s a home game against the Giants, who are also 2-11, with the No. 25 pass defense in the league. There’s a challenging game at Washington, but then the Falcons close the year at home against three-win Carolina, giving Penix three manageable opponents in a four-game first look.

Five weeks ago, the New York Times playoff simulator gave the Falcons a 96% chance of making the playoffs, but that probability has dropped to 37% as Atlanta fell back behind Tampa Bay. Lose on Sunday at Las Vegas — the Falcons are three-point road favorites — and the playoff odds drop in half to 17%. There’s little margin for error at a time when all the momentum is negative for the franchise.

And as much as the Falcons committed to Cousins, with $90 million fully guaranteed, they could still trade him in the offseason to a QB-needy team that isn’t picking high enough to find a surefire starter in a poor draft for QBs. A new team would be on the hook for one year and $37.5 million, which is expensive but presents a more short-term fix than other top-end veteran solutions like Sam Darnold or Russell Wilson.

The Falcons have portrayed their simultaneous major investments in two quarterbacks as their present and their future, but there’s always been a question of when one would end and the other would begin. That ideally isn’t a 2024 conversation with what they’re paying Cousins, but if the goal is to get back in the playoffs, why not now?

The line in the sand for Atlanta all season has been 22 points — the Falcons are 6-0 when they score that much or more, 0-7 when they don’t. That’s not asking that much from a talented offense with weapons all over the field. And while the Bucs are in first place now, they play at the Chargers (and the NFL’s No. 1 defense) this week, and a loss, coupled with a Falcons win, would put Atlanta back atop the division and back in control of its playoff fate with three weeks to play.

If Penix could lead the Falcons to victory against three of the worst teams in the NFL this season — the Raiders, Giants and Panther are a combined 7-32 — on that alone, Atlanta has a 48% chance to make the playoffs by the New York Times’ math.

It’s handing Penix the keys to the franchise earlier than you’d like, but Cousins has brought that into play with his struggles in the past month. If they stick with the veteran and fall short, they’re probably moving on this spring, and the storyline around the franchise is a negative one, of the disappointment of Cousins rather than the upside of Penix.

The rookie is still very much an unknown. He has thrown five passes all season, in mop-up work at the end of two lopsided losses. Even in preseason, he had just one appearance, with 16 passes and 104 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions. But as bad as Cousins has been in the past month, is uncertainty better than something you know to be an active obstacle to winning?

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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