2024 CFP action report: Ohio State’s ‘impressive’ play causing lines to shift

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Is Ohio State peaking at the right time?What went wrong for Georgia in the Sugar Bowl vs. Notre Dame?

Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

College Football Playoff semifinal odds are definitely showing deference to Ohio State.

And rightly so, based on the Buckeyes’ performance through two rounds of the expanded 12-team tournament.

“Ohio State has been thoroughly impressive twice. The team has played better than expectations,” DraftKings Sportsbook director of operations Johnny Avello said. “And they’re playing with a chip on their shoulder. They just look really good right now.”

Avello offered his insights on College Football Playoff odds for each of the semifinals.

The New No. 1

When the College Football Playoff began, Ohio State was the No. 8 seed. There were plenty who thought No. 9 seed Tennessee would beat the host Buckeyes in the first round.

But Ohio State rolled to a 42-17 victory. Then, in the quarterfinals, at the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes bolted to a 34-0 lead late in the second quarter and breezed to a 41-21 victory over Oregon.

Now, the No. 8 seed is the favorite in DraftKings Sportsbook’s CFP championship odds, at even money (+100). Which means if Ohio State lifts the trophy on Jan. 20, then a $100 bet would win $100 (total payout $200).

First, though, comes a Jan. 10 semifinal against No. 5 seed Texas.

Based on its two riveting performances so far, Ohio State is a 6-point favorite. That’s despite the game being played in the Longhorns’ backyard at the Cotton Bowl, three hours from the Austin campus.

“Before the playoff started, this game was probably close to Ohio State -1/-1.5. But the way the Buckeyes have played and the way Texas played vs. Arizona State, that’s the reason for the big shift in the line,” Avello said.

Is Ohio State peaking at the right time?

Texas jumped out to a 14-0 lead vs. Arizona State and was up 17-3 at halftime in the Peach Bowl quarterfinal. But the Longhorns ultimately got dragged to overtime, tied at 24.

Texas held on for a 39-31 double-OT victory.

Early action seems to indicate a conundrum for bettors.

“I can’t say that there’s either side that’s getting hit harder. I think the 6 is making people think a little bit,” Avello said.

Pluck of the Irish

You can’t really call Notre Dame’s continued presence luck of the Irish. Coach Marcus Freeman’s squad rolled over Indiana 27-17 in the first round, then didn’t back down to Georgia in a 23-10 quarterfinal win in the Sugar Bowl.

So No. 7 seed Notre Dame is a slim 1.5-point favorite vs. No. 6 Penn State in College Football Playoff semifinal odds, heading into a Jan. 9 Orange Bowl clash.

Avello isn’t sure where bettors will take the point spread. But he knows this matchup and the subsequent Cotton Bowl will be very well-bet.

“When these games have been isolated, they have written a lot of money,” he said, before getting to early action on Notre Dame vs. Penn State. “So far, we’re seeing a little bit of play on Notre Dame -1.5 and on Over 46.5.”

What went wrong for Georgia in the Sugar Bowl vs. Notre Dame?

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

Looming large — extremely large — for Caesars Sports is a seven-figure wager that came in during conference championship week. A Louisiana customer put a whopping $1.5 million on Texas +390 to win the national title.

The Longhorns, now the +290 second choice at Caesars, behind +100 favorite Ohio State, are two wins away from that bettor cashing out big. If Texas upsets Ohio State and gets through either Penn State or Notre Dame in the title game, then the bettor reaps a huge windfall of $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.

Also, still out there is a much more modest bet at Caesars: $500 on Notre Dame +8000 (80/1) to win the playoff. That bet was made on Sept. 9, a day after Notre Dame’s shocking 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois.

The Fighting Irish haven’t lost since and, in fact, have been dominant. And if Notre Dame claims the championship, then the bettor profits $40,000.

For comparison: The Fighting Irish are now +400 to win the title, third of the four remaining teams. So it would take a $10,000 bet to profit $40,000.

That customer has to be feeling pretty good at the moment.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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