Sometimes I struggle with how to wager on a game where I feel so confident in the outcome.
Ohio State is just better than Notre Dame, and it’s hard to find any edge for the Irish in the matchups. But, here goes nothing.
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Irish are what everyone hopes their favorite college program can become. They are tough, gritty, resilient and play with passion. They are a sound team, making few mistakes while forcing turnovers and playing outstanding special teams.
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However, that doesn’t make this a competitive game against Ohio State — a better team at every position group with the ability to make explosive offensive plays and stop any opposing team’s scoring opportunities.
Ohio State’s offense has bounced back from the inexcusable loss to Michigan to end the regular season. The Buckeyes have committed to the pass in their last three games, and while it wasn’t as pretty against Texas in the semifinal, they profile well against Notre Dame’s defense.
Michigan and Texas were able to play a ton of two-high safety zone, which limited Ohio State’s ability to push the ball down the field with its elite receiving group. When you play two high safeties, that puts one less safety into the box. This means a defense must stop the run with the defensive line.
Michigan and Texas had the defensive lines to make that happen against an Ohio State offensive line featuring injuries. However, OSU’s offensive line has played well despite the injuries. It’s not an issue.
Notre Dame’s defense does not play zone at the same rate as Michigan or Texas. The Irish play man coverage more than 50% of their defensive snaps, and that will not be effective against Ohio State’s offense.
I get people have the urge to say, “Well, they should just play zone coverage.” And I wish it was that easy. Notre Dame got to this point with this style of defense, and it’s not going to change overnight. The Irish will try to mix it up to confuse the Buckeyes offense, but that won’t be enough to slow it down.
CFP National Championship Super Six: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
I think Ohio State will score in this game.
On the other side of the ball, I do not expect the Irish to score often in this contest.
Ohio State has allowed more than 17 points only twice this season and that was against the same team. Oregon scored 32 in its first game against Ohio State and then 21 in the Rose Bowl, which included a late garbage-time touchdown.
Notre Dame’s offense is fine but not explosive enough to create points if you dink and dunk them down the field.
The Irish special teams unit is fantastic, and it forces a bunch of turnovers. That has been the key to its success this season. But can it make those turnovers happen against Ohio State? Hard to handicap because the Irish don’t, this game won’t be close.
Notre Dame’s season has been fantastic and nothing will change that. I think Ohio State covers, which continues the trend of these championship games being non-competitive with the favorite winning by a wide margin.
PICK: Ohio State (-8) to win by more than 8 points
Will Ohio State or Notre Dame be the National Champion?
Riley Leonard Over/Under 14.5 rushing attempts
The Notre Dame offense will be reliant on the ability of its quarterback to use his legs to generate offense.
Leonard’s ability to move and create has been critical for the success of the Irish offense in the postseason. He rushed 11 times against Indiana in a game in which it didn’t need him. He had 14 rushing attempts against Georgia and then 18 against Penn State in the semifinals.
The Irish use him in short yardage and in the red zone. Also, a reminder that sacks count as rushing attempts.
If Leonard is sacked five times and rushes for another 10 attempts, we get over 15.
PICK: Riley Leonard Over 14.5 rushing attempts
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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