We’ve got 256 games down and 16 to go!
The NFL regular season ends on Sunday — a season that started with the Chiefs surviving against the Ravens on the opening Thursday night game.
Usually, the final week of the regular season is filled with chaos and countless different playoff scenarios. This year? Not so much.
The Buccaneers, thanks to inexplicable clock management from the Falcons on Sunday night against the Commanders, simply need a win against a depleted Saints team to secure the NFC South. The Bucs are two-touchdown favorites in that game, so not much drama there.
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The Ravens need a win on Saturday to clinch the AFC North but are the biggest favorites of the year at home against the Browns. Cleveland, by the way, is now on its fourth-string quarterback, Bailey Zappe.
Six of the seven AFC playoff spots are spoken for. The final bid goes to the Broncos if they can defeat the 15-1 Chiefs. The good news for the Broncos is that Patrick Mahomes and several Kansas City starters will rest for this one, as the Chiefs clinched the No. 1 seed when they defeated the Steelers on Christmas.
Ultimately, we aren’t getting the usual drama of the final week, but there’s still lots up for grabs. And this is the last time until September that we can enjoy watching multiple NFL games at the same time.
I mentioned the Chiefs securing the AFC No. 1 seed, but in the NFC, the top spot will be on the line in game 272 on Sunday night, as the regular-season finale will decide the NFC North. The winner will also get wild-card weekend off and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at that game from a betting perspective.
About a month ago, I suggested betting the Vikings at 11-1 to be the No. 1 seed. I factored in the respective schedules and calculated that the top spot could come down to this game.
Well, here we are.
The Vikings have ripped off nine straight wins, with their last loss coming in October against the Rams. The Lions, like the Vikings, sit at 14-2, but are not in the dominant form they were midseason. Their defense has gotten consistently shredded in recent weeks as injuries have continued to mount on that side of the ball.
From a betting perspective, we have the highest total of the season — a whopping 56.5. But if you’ve watched each team recently, you realize why it’s as high as it is. In games like this, with sky-high totals, the prop market is where I look for value.
While this market is not widely available yet, most books will post an Over/Under for the number of punts in a game. I would look Under in that spot when that market does appear, since we’ve got two prolific offenses and two coaches who are ultra-aggressive on fourth down. Another prop that is commonly offered as the game gets closer is O/U 1.5 yards for shortest touchdown of the game. With so many touchdowns expected here, I would look Under in this market, also. There will be increased chances of pass interference in the end zone at some point or just one short touchdown in a game with a ton of offense.
How Sam Darnold resurrected his career with the Vikings
As for the game itself, I’m riding with the Vikings. If you followed my advice and took them 11-1 to be the top seed, you can take the Lions on the moneyline and lock in a nice profit.
However, I’m siding with the Vikings here because of the Lions defense. Last week, it surrendered almost eight yards per play against the 49ers, and that was a week after allowing 6.5 yards per play to the Bears.
This comes after the Packers and Bills posted a combined 79 points against Detroit the two games before.
The Lions defense is the worst unit among the four that we’ll see in this game, and I think the Vikings win a shootout and clinch the NFC North.
PICK: Vikings (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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