Bookmakers will tell you that NFL Week 18 odds are among the trickiest to calibrate. That’s because so many games have teams with widely varying degrees of motivation.
But that’s not the case for the Minnesota Vikings vs. the Detroit Lions.
All the NFC marbles are on the line, with a No. 1 seed at stake on Sunday night in the Motor City.
“We expect this to be one of our highest-bet games of the year. It’s something we like to see at this point. It’s the last game of the regular season, and it’s a really competitive game,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Vikings vs. Lions, along with a key clash on FOX between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, as we dive into NFL Week 18 betting nuggets.
Sunday Night Showdown
As noted all season long, the Lions are not only among the best teams on the field but also among the best for bettors. Detroit is 14-2 straight up (SU) and 11-4-1 against the spread (ATS).
In fact, the Lions have been a great bet since mid-November 2022, going 36-10 SU/34-11-1 ATS in their last 46 games. So it’s no surprise to see the Lions as 3-point home favorites for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
What is surprising: Road underdog Minnesota, which mirrors Detroit at 14-2 SU/11-4-1 ATS, is grabbing bettors’ attention as the weekend nears.
“We’re seeing a lot of Vikings action to this point,” Feazel said. “This is also a very high total of 56, one of the highest totals of the year. But they’re still betting the Over. This should be a very competitive game.”
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NFL Rocks On FOX
Commanders vs. Cowboys is a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff on FOX. Washington (11-5 SU/10-5-1 ATS) has already secured an NFC Wild Card bid. But Jayden Daniels & Co. want to maintain the No. 6 seed.
A drop to No. 7 would mean a road trip to Philadelphia on Super Wild Card Weekend. Bettors are playing that angle so far at Caesars.
“There’s much more Commanders money coming in,” Feazel said, noting Washington is up to a 6.5-point favorite, after being as low as -3. “The action on the Commanders reflects that move.”
Dallas (7-9 SU and ATS) is wrapping up a disappointing and injury-riddled campaign.
“But one thing to note is that the Cowboys have not quit. They’re looking to play spoilers to a division rival,” Feazel said.
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NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay recognizes the potential pitfalls of betting on NFL Week 18 odds. But he’s on a trio of games, including the Bengals–Steelers Saturday night contest.
McKay is playing Cincinnati as a 1.5-point road favorite.
“I liked the Bengals in the first matchup, a 44-38 loss,” McKay said, alluding to Cincy’s Week 13 setback as a 3-point home favorite vs. Pittsburgh. “I feel like the Bengals will bounce back here, against a fading Steelers team that might rest some starters.”
McKay is also on the Chiefs–Broncos matchup on Sunday, with a couple of options: a parlay of Kansas City +10.5 and Under 40 total points, if allowed; or two straight bets, one on the Chiefs +10.5 and the other on Under 40.
“Too much of an overreaction here, with Kansas City playing some backups,” McKay said, alluding to Patrick Mahomes and others sitting out. “It’s still a rivalry game, and the weather could be windy.”
Finally, McKay is on the last game of the regular season, Vikings vs. Lions, taking Minnesota +3.
“The Rodney Dangerfields still getting no respect. This is about the same line as when Green Bay traveled to Detroit four weeks ago and covered,” McKay said, pointing to the Packers cashing as 3.5-point underdogs in a 34-31 loss. “Minnesota was ahead [late] in first matchup, when Detroit had all hands on deck. Now, Minnesota has the edge, with fewer injuries.”
In Week 7, Minnesota was a 1-point home favorite to Detroit and lost 31-29 on a final-second field goal.
Mile High Matchup
The Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Denver Broncos is another key contest in Week 18 NFL odds — at least for one team.
Denver (9-7 SU/11-5 ATS) wraps up the AFC’s final wild card bid with a victory. Kansas City (15-1 SU/8-8 ATS) already has the No. 1 seed locked up entering this 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday meeting.
The Chiefs are resting Mahomes, among others, with Carson Wentz starting at quarterback. Not surprisingly, that led Caesars to open the Broncos at -8 (-115), and the spread shot as high as -11 on Tuesday.
As of Thursday night, it’s Denver -10.5.
“This is the Broncos’ final hurrah. Win and they’re in is the angle,” Feazel said. “But this is the NFL. We saw last week that the Giants had nothing to play for and could’ve easily tanked. Then they beat the Colts.
“Even the backups are not giving up.”
And bettors don’t think Wentz & Co. will just lay down against a division rival.
“We’re seeing a lot of Chiefs moneyline. You never see the Chiefs at +430,” Feazel said of K.C.’s odds to pull the outright upset, on which a $100 bet would profit $430 (total payout $530). “We’re seeing Chiefs spread bets, as well. The line is inflated on purpose. It’s a B-squad vs. a Broncos team that needs this.
“But Carson Wentz is not Zach Wilson. Wentz is a QB who’s had success and knows how to play. I wouldn’t rule out the Chiefs, by any means.”
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Steel City Saturday Night
The Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers has plenty on the line, too, in an 8 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff. The Bengals are clinging to very slim playoff hopes. The Steelers are already into the postseason, but want to secure an advantageous wild card seed, at a minimum.
“It’s another meaningful game, where both teams need a win,” Feazel said. “The Steelers need the win because the No. 5 seed is a coveted seed. You want to play No. 4 seed Houston, as opposed to the Ravens.”
The point spread is moving toward the Steelers, opening at Bengals -3 and sitting at Bengals -1.5 (-115) on Thursday night. But the action is going toward the favorite.
“We’re seeing a lot more Bengals money,” Feazel said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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