Notre Dame did it again.
What a resilient football team that keeps finding ways to win. I do wonder if the Irish have the depth to hang with Ohio State or Texas, but what a fun ride it’s been for anyone holding a future ticket on Marcus Freeman & Co.
As for NFL Wild Card Weekend, I’ve made four bets on two games. These lines are just so tight in the playoffs. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-teamers. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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2024 Record: (44-43, -3.1 units)
Chargers (-3, O/U 42.5) @ Texans
Ah, the good ol’ Saturday afternoon Texans playoff game — we’ve missed you.
I was listening to the “Deep Dive” with two of my favorite NFL bettors, Andy Molitor and Drew Dinsick, and Drew was flabbergasted at this line. At one point, he basically posed the question, “Is this game in Los Angeles?”
It is difficult to get to Los Angeles as a 3-point road favorite from a power ratings point of view, and while football isn’t played on a calculator, you don’t get many chances to take a full field goal in a game which multiple people I respect think should be closer to a pick ‘em.
Sure, Houston’s defense struggled against Kansas City and Baltimore down the stretch — as teams do — but the Texans have the pieces on D to erase a lot of what the Chargers do well. It’s extremely tough to run on them and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. mostly takes your best downfield threat out of games.
I’m betting Houston to cover and win outright.
PICK: Texans (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
PICK: Texans ML +135
Does Bo Nix have the most to gain this postseason?
Broncos @ Bills (-8, O/U 47.5)
Bo Nix meets the NFL playoffs.
It’s nothing personal against Nix. In fact, I think he’s going to be a fine quarterback in this league. But I believe the Broncos are ahead of schedule and will struggle against a team that’s good enough to win a Super Bowl.
Buffalo’s offensive versatility should give the Broncos problems and, assuming the Bills take an early lead, it would likely force Sean Payton to drop more responsibility on the shoulders of a rookie on the road.
Eh.
These wild-card games tend to be flex games for elite teams, and I’m in the camp of the Bills have the talent on both sides to win handily.
I won’t be surprised if it’s 34-17 Buffalo.
PICK: Bills (-8.5) to win by more than 8.5 points
PICK: Bo Nix (-145) to throw an interception
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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