Wild Card Weekend is here, and I’m looking forward to diving into what should be an incredible weekend of NFL games.
There are so many smart wagers that we could make during this first weekend of the playoffs.
In addition to backing Los Angeles, my picks this week feature a couple of teasers.
Check out my best bets for Wild Card Weekend.
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MONDAY, JAN. 13
Vikings @ Rams (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
This is tricky to handicap because this game was moved to Arizona due to the fires in California. Early in the week, money came in on the Rams. After the change in venue, the Vikings went back up to -2.5.
Still, I think the Rams are the side here, with the points and on the moneyline.
Sam Darnold is having the best season of his career by a significant margin, but this is his first playoff game. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start when facing a QB with playoff experience are 19-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last 22 years and are 19-38 straight up (SU).
In a de facto playoff game in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the line, Darnold struggled badly. He went 18-for-41 for 166 yards in his worst performance of the season.
The Lions confused Darnold with the blitz. They toggled between man and zone defense, forcing the QB to hold the ball and process an extra second or two.
He couldn’t deliver.
The Rams defense isn’t as blitz-happy (Minnesota ranks first in blitz percentage this season; Rams rank 20th). So Darnold won’t be that bad, unless the Vikings are playing catch up all night. They had more snaps when leading than any team in the NFL this season.
This game will turn on the Rams offense, which is at full strength with Matt Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all healthy. That wasn’t the case for much of the season, but it was in the last meeting with the Vikings. That was a 30-20 Rams win at Sofi on Thursday Night Football.
Stafford is a veteran — a future Hall of Fame inductee — and there isn’t a blitz he hasn’t seen. Against the blitz this season, Stafford ranks third in YPA and fourth in DVOA.
If you’re patient enough, you can probably get the Rams at a better price after the Vikings get the kickoff and score on their scripted drive.
PICK: Rams (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points, or win outright
PICK: Rams Moneyline
Steelers (+9.5) cover, Eagles (-4.5) win, Rams (+2.5) upset Vikings in Wild Card Weekend
Bills, Eagles, Ravens Moneyline Parlay
The payout here is almost even money ($100 bet wins $102), and you have two big home favorites, plus the mighty Eagles at home.
First, let’s look at the Broncos-Bills game. I’ve been shouting for weeks about how I can’t wait to fade Bo Nix in the playoffs, and I’m eager to back the Bills here. The Broncos deserve all the praise for making the playoffs, but this is an extremely difficult spot.
Denver was 1-7 against teams with winning records. It beat one playoff team and that was the Bucs in Tampa Bay in Week 3. Every other time it stepped up in class, it lost.
Maybe Sean Payton can work some road playoff magic, and keep it close. He’s 4-0 (ATS) on the road in the postseason. But short of a massive Josh Allen meltdown, this feels like 35-10.
Then we have Steelers-Ravens. Like the Broncos, the Steelers have had a charmed season. However, the wheels have come off lately, with four straight losses.
When Pittsburgh was winning in October and November, it was because of the big splash plays down the field. The Steelers mixed deep shots with a plodding run game, and it worked just good enough for a 10-3 start. But the deep shots have dried up, as teams have gone to the cover-two defense and Russell Wilson has struggled to take what the oppositition has given him.
Maybe the Zay Flowers injury limits Baltimore’s offense and Pittsburgh is able to hang around. But 10-point favorites are 17-1 SU in the playoffs.
Greg Olsen breaks down Eagles-Packers wild-card showdown
Finally, we have Packers-Eagles.
The Packers are potentially scary. Just think back to what they did last year in Dallas. They beat the Cowboys 48-32, then pushed around the 49ers before losing 24-21. Matt LaFleur is a great coach, but he doesn’t have a full deck with Christian Watson out for the season. With Watson out, the Packers offense is less explosive, as he’s the burner you must respect deep. Defenses have been able to sit on routes and stack the box to stop the run. It could be tough sledding for the Packers offense.
The Jalen Hurts concussion muddles things because you have to assume he won’t be running as much. If the Packers are in their standard cover-two defense, this feels like a game in which Saquon Barkley has 25 carries. If the Packers adjust to take away Barkley, it becomes an A.J. Brown game because the Packers have nobody who can defend him.
PICK: Parlay Bills, Eagles, Ravens Moneylines
Parkins’ Picks for Wild Card Weekend: Chargers storm forth, Ravens soar
Two-team, 7-point teaser
Texans +8.5, Bills -3
We already covered the Bills’ favorable matchups when they face the Broncos. You might want to even take a look at Allen’s Over rushing props against this man-heavy Denver defense, but tossing the Texans into this teaser feels like a winner.
The Chargers are going on the road for the third straight week, and remember, they had one of the earliest byes back on Oct. 6. Yes, they had some blowout wins down the stretch but against teams that are drafting pretty high, like New England and Las Vegas.
The only two playoff teams the Chargers beat? Denver and twice. They lost to Pittsburgh, Kansas City twice, Baltimore and Tampa.
This feels like a last-team-with-the-ball-wins in a low-scoring game kind of matchup. And getting more than one score with the Texans at home is a side I like.
PICK: Teaser Houston +8.5, Buffalo -3
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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