2025 NFL Conference Championship expert pick, best bet by Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

The NFL playoffs are winding down, and next up is conference championship weekend.

For those new to this space, if you are looking for a few wagers to get in on the NFL action, I have you covered. Nothing makes football better than having a few bucks on the games weekly.

Last week, we won one, lost one and pushed on the other.

Let’s get back on track this week.

RECORD
Last Week: 0-1-1
Season: 19-23-1

Commanders @ Eagles (1 p.m. ET, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The thing I’m most sure about this weekend is that the Eagles will score points. Even with Kenny Pickett playing a majority of the second meeting, the Eagles scored 33 points and ran for 211 yards. A lot of the high-variance numbers went Washington’s way in that meeting. The Eagles were 3-for-16 on third down and the Commanders were 9-for-16 on third and fourth downs.

Yes, the Commanders did overcome five turnovers, but that was only because of the third-down drop by DeVonta Smith, which would have salted the game away. That remains Philadelphia’s only loss in the last 15 games. The first meeting in Philadelphia was total domination by the Eagles — a 434-264 total yardage advantage, 6.2-4.2 yards per play advantage and 228 yards on the ground. And that was with Jalen Hurts likely playing some of the game with concussion symptoms after a nasty hit.

Why the Lions got away from the run when they played the Commanders last week amazed me. Detroit averaged 8.7 yards per carry on the ground but got done in by four interceptions and five total touchdowns.

This feels like a game that either the Commanders win outright or Philadelphia wins comfortably. I just don’t know for sure which way it will go.

One could argue that the Commanders are on one of those Giants kind of wild-card runs where they win a Super Bowl as the “now team,” or one could argue maybe the run resembles the 2010 Jets when there weren’t many expectations entering the postseason.

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If you recall, that team was not supposed to beat Peyton Manning and the Colts and then it did. And then it was, “The Giants aren’t gonna go into New England and beat the Patriots who just blew them out last month,” and then they did. Then it was, “We’re going to the Super Bowl, we’re gonna beat Pittsburgh.” At least that was the mentality as a fan. But the team was just spent in the AFC title game.

I’ll pass on figuring out the guess work on that and just play Eagles’ team total Over.

PICK: Eagles team total Over 26.5 points scored

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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