2025 NFL Conference Championship odds: Best bets for Commanders-Eagles, Bills-Chiefs

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Numbers matter in this racket.

Getting the right number on the Eagles last week (-6 instead of -7) kept a clean sheet, thanks to Philadelphia beating the L.A. Rams 28-22. I won’t be sending kicker Jake Elliott a box of Christmas candy anytime soon, but I digress.

NFL championship weekend is here, and I’ve got three bets to make for the Sunday slate. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-teamers. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

2024 Record: (49-44, +0.8 units)

Commanders @ Eagles (-6, O/U 47.5)

Washington’s team total Over was a fun wager last weekend, although it’s highly unlikely the Commanders move the ball with relative ease against this Eagles defense. That said, the Commanders will stay aggressive on fourth down, which should lead to points either way. I just don’t see Dan Quinn suddenly turning into a pumpkin and punting from the Philly 40.

Meanwhile, I’m not buying the Jalen Hurts injury smoke and wouldn’t be surprised if we get big games from Hurts and A.J. Brown. Despite what people on social media are saying, the Eagles are a top-six offense in football.

Expect Saquon Barkley to have another monster game and help get this bad boy into the 50s.

PICK: Over 47.5 points scored by both teams combined

Can Eagles slow down Jayden Daniels, Commanders in NFC title game?

Bills @ Chiefs (-2, O/U 47.5)

It feels like we’ve been here before. Oh yeah, we have.

Longtime readers know I always bet the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl every summer to alleviate the pain of another run by the Big Red Machine. And maybe I bet the Bills +8 in some teasers.

So be it.

I honestly have no idea who’s going to win. What I do know is Josh Allen probably scores a touchdown. There’s still an even-money price (+100) in the market, while other books are as high as -120. Please get the right number.

Also, the Chiefs tend to struggle against tight ends, so I played Dawson Knox to get over his yardage number.

This game is appointment television for any sports fan. I hope you’re planning accordingly.

PICK: Josh Allen (+100) anytime TD scorer
PICK: Dawson Knox (-125) Over 13.5 receiving yards

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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