College basketball weekend preview: Top five games to watch Saturday

Another week in college basketball, another wild week that was filled with epic performances, incredible finishes and shocking upsets. College basketball never ceases to amaze.

This weekend’s slate features three ranked-vs-ranked matchups and six top-10 teams playing on the road. We could easily see a much different AP Top 25 ranking on Monday. At the very least, with several high-stakes conference matchups, we will likely see some minor shifting.

As with most Saturdays during conference season, there’s an overwhelming number of games that are likely to be high in entertainment value — but a handful of games truly stand out.

Here are the five best men’s college hoops games to watch in a loaded weekend ahead:

What to expect: Points! Another Kentucky game, another game with high point totals. The Wildcats have played just one game where neither team scored more than 70 points (a 70-66 loss to Clemson). Vandyerbilt can score the ball and that home crowd has proven to be loud and impactful when they have the opportunity. This is a game that could really be one of the most entertaining of the entire weekend and could solidify Vandy’s stature as a tourney team.

Key stat: The key for Vanderbilt will be stopping the 3-point barrage Kentucky is capable of putting up. The Wildcats average 10.2 made 3-pointers per game to lead the SEC, meaning nearly one third of their points come from behind the arc. The Commodores are a middle-of-the-pack team defending the 3-point line in the SEC, giving up 7.1 made 3s per game. If they can keep Kentucky to that number, that would be a huge win. Vandy can score with Kentucky (it averages 82.3 per game), but it will need to be solid defending shots from deep.

Trends: Vanderbilt has been scoring in bunches this season, but its defense has been a key in wins this season. In games where they allow less than 75 points this season, the Commodores are 12-0. When they allow 75 points or more, they’re 3-4. On the other side, when Kentucky scores 70 points or more, it’s 14-1. When the Wildcats fail to reach the 70-point plateau, they’re 0-3 this season.

What to expect: One thing that both of these teams possess and really defines them is that they have balanced scoring. Neither team has a player averaging 15 points per game, but each team does have four players averaging double-figures. That makes the offense incredibly balanced, with a lot of floor-spacing and riding the hot hand. This should be another one of those games.

Key stat: Turnovers will be key here, as both teams are great at forcing turnovers. Ole Miss forces 16.2 turnovers per game, which leads the SEC. Missouri forces 15.2 turnovers per game, the third-most in the SEC. Whoever can hold on to the ball and prevent mistakes is going to be in very good position to win the game.

Trends: The Rebels have had a good season thus far, but they can take another step when they’re active on the boards. This season, Ole Miss is 8-0 when outrebounding their opponent. It’s just 7-4 when being outrebounded. This one will be a huge storyline because Missouri has stark splits on the glass. In games when the Tigers have a positive rebounding differential, they are 10-1, but they’re just 5-3 when they fail to secure more rebounds. Both teams need to rebound if they want to take another step.

What to expect: Points! This game may not feature two of the top three offenses like one of the games we highlighted last week, but it does feature two very good offenses. Xavier is eighth in the country in fast-break points, scoring almost 17 per game in the open floor. Meanwhile, UConn is eighth in offensive efficiency according to Kenpom, but is doing it a little differently — quietly being tied for second in the country with 19.4 assists per game.

Key stat: These two teams may not make the most 3s, but they’re very efficient from deep. This season, Xavier and UConn rank second and third, respectively, in 3-point percentage in the Big East. That has translated well to overall offensive success, with those two teams being the only ones in the conference to average 75 points per game while also shooting 35% or better from deep as a team.

Trends: UConn has won four straight in the series against Xavier, with the Musketeers’ last win coming during the 2022-23 season when they swept the Huskies. One other note, this is the second time this season that the Musketeers will be playing three consecutive games against AP Top 25 teams.

What to expect: This game is going to be a rock fight. No team allows fewer points per game than Houston (53.9). The next closest team in points per game allowed is Drake (57.8). Kansas is not far behind Houston though, ranking 16th in the nation, allowing just 63.3 points per game. First to 50 points wins!

Key stat: The magic number is 60. Since the 2015-16 season, which was Kelvin Sampson’s second with the Cougars, Houston is 114-4 when allowing less than 60 points. That’s the second-most wins in the nation during that span, behind only Virginia. The Jayhawks are the reverse, though. Since the 2015-16 season, Kansas is 173-63 when scoring at least 60 points, the second-most wins in the nation for that stretch, behind only Gonzaga.

Trends: Kansas is 5-2 in its past seven games when facing an AP top-10 team at home. However, if you look back a little further, it’s just 5-5 over the past 10 games hosting AP top-10 teams. History is not as kind to Houston and that is putting it mildly. Since Sampson took over, it is just 2-6 on the road against AP top-15 teams.

What to expect: If this is an up-and-down game, Tennessee is going to have a hard time winning. If this is a possession-by-possession, run down the shot clock, type of game, then Auburn may struggle to win. If we are lucky to get Johni Broome returning in this game for Auburn and Chaz Lanier brings his A-game, then we’re in for a treat. Tennessee is 13-0 when Lanier has one assist or more. Just one. When he fails to register an assist, the Vols are 4-2.

Key stat: Auburn’s offense is the story here, and Tennessee is going to need to bring its A-game defensively if it wants to win. Auburn is one of only two teams (Miami OH) to be shooting 50% from the floor, 38% from deep and 74% from the free-throw line. That gives it a lot of offensive depth. The good news is Tennessee can do just that. It is currently allowing just 58.6 points per game, the third-best mark in the nation. The Vols are also holding opponents to just 36.3% field goals. It is going to be a battle of whose strength can overcome the other’s.

Trends: Tennessee is 5-5 in its past 10 games against AP top-five teams but hasn’t won on the road against an AP top-five team since 2008. Since 2010, Auburn is 1-5 when it hosts an AP top-10 team. The Tigers have also lost six straight games to AP top-10 SEC teams, with their last win coming in 2019 at Kentucky.

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