Jayden Daniels or C.J. Stroud as a rookie?
It’s a question that must come to mind amid Daniels’ historic rookie season. The front-runner to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Daniels guided the Commanders on a game-winning field goal drive to beat the Buccaneers in the NFC wild card last week, securing Washington’s first divisional-round appearance in 19 years. The No. 2 overall pick also became the first rookie starting quarterback to win a road playoff game since 2012.
Daniels’ playoff success (so far), coupled with an outstanding regular season that earned him a Pro Bowl nod, has led some national pundits to go as far and say he has had the best rookie quarterback season ever — a year after many said the same about Stroud.
Last year’s No. 2 overall pick, Stroud also led his team to the divisional round as a rookie (the Texans eventually lost to the Ravens in the second round). He became the youngest quarterback ever to win a playoff game in Houston’s wild-card win over Cleveland. Much of the praise heaped on Stroud — about his poise and how he played beyond his years — has been recycled and given to Daniels.
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That’s not to say Daniels hasn’t earned it; he was one of the league’s best quarterbacks in 2024 as a rookie. But it warrants a closer look at the season he’s had, and the one Stroud had last year.
Here’s a breakdown of the childhood friends’ rookie seasons by category, who gets the edge in each and what it all means:
THE BETTER PASSER?
It depends on how you’re looking at it.
In terms of efficiency, Daniels gets the edge. He completed a higher rate of his passes during the regular season (Daniels at 69%, Stroud at 63.9%), registered more passing touchdowns (25, 23) and had fewer turnover-worthy plays (1.7%, 2.8%), according to Pro Football Focus. Daniels also beats Stroud in some of the advanced metrics, including expected points added per dropback (plus-0.13, plus-0.6) and completion percentage over expected (plus-2.0, plus-0.9%), according to Next Gen Stats.
But Stroud has the advantage in most of the traditional passing categories, including interceptions (Stroud with 5, Daniels with 9), passing yards per attempt (8.2, 7.4), and total passing yards (4,108; 3,568) despite the fact that Stroud played two fewer games last year.
Daniels had the weaker pass-catching corps (by production and arguably talent level), sure. But Stroud’s sheer numbers are eye-popping. He joined Tom Brady and Joe Montana as the only quarterbacks in the past 50 years to lead the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9) and touchdown-interception ratio (4.6) — as a rookie.
The Texans quarterback was also marginally better than Daniels against pressure as a rookie. Stroud had a better completion rate, completion rate over expected, passing yards, touchdown-interception ratio and passer rating than Daniels despite dropping back 11 more times against pressure, per Next Gen Stats.
Edge: Stroud
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THE BETTER RUSHER?
Stroud is a traditional pocket passer who can scramble when he needs to. While Daniels is cut from the same cloth, he also has an ability as a runner that makes him one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. The Commanders deploy designed runs with him, and he knows how to protect his thin, 210-pound frame.
Daniels led Washington with 891 rushing yards, which is the third-most in league history by a player with a passer rating of at least 100, according to Next Gen Stats. He also paced the NFL in rushing yards on scrambles (600). His 28 scrambles for 233 yards and 20 first downs on third and fourth down combined led the NFL this season, too.
Daniels had six rushing touchdowns on 148 carries to go with his 891 rushing yards. Stroud, meanwhile, had just 39 carries for 167 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.
Edge: Daniels
WHO’S MORE CLUTCH?
Daniels’ game-winning drive in the NFC wild-card game against the Bucs was the latest testament to what he has done all season in the biggest moments.
There’s the Hail Mary to beat the Bears in Week 8. The go-ahead touchdown with six seconds left to beat the Eagles in Week 15. How he rose to the occasion to beat the Bengals in Week 3, his first prime-time game. Daniels helped Washington win eight one-score games this season. Including the playoffs, he has five game-winning drives and five fourth-quarter comebacks (so far).
Last season, Stroud looked just as comfortable in critical moments as Daniels does now, though. The biggest highlight: completing more than 71% of his passes for 470 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions, including the game-winning score with six seconds left, to beat Tampa in Week 9 of the 2023 season.
But the 2023 Texans had seven one-score wins compared to the Commanders’ eight this season. Stroud also had just two game-winning drives and one fourth quarter comeback, compared to Daniels’ five in both categories.
Edge: Daniels
Where Jayden Daniels’ year ranks among all-time rookie seasons
WHAT’S THE VERDICT?
Daniels gets the slight edge.
He also has a chance to make history in a way that Stroud could not. Both reached the divisional round as a rookie, but Daniels still has a chance to go further. By helping the Commanders upset the top-seeded Lions on Saturday, Daniels would become just the fifth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game since the NFL merger in 1970. That accomplishment, plus the season he’s already had, would put Daniels in a class of his own — above some of the other rookie quarterback studs in history, including Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton.
Ultimately, Daniels and Stroud’s rookie seasons have to be analyzed through the context of their situations. And as noted earlier, Stroud got more production out of his pass-catchers. He also had a better defense (the Texans ranked 16th in defensive DVOA last season, while the Commanders ranked 23rd this year, per FTN Data). You can’t discount Daniels’ superior rushing ability either, or the fact that he has more wins (13 and counting compared to Stroud’s 10, including the playoffs) playing in a tougher division.
None of this means that Daniels will have a better career than Stroud, who has regressed statistically in his second season. We don’t yet know how Daniels will respond once teams have a full season’s worth of tape on him.
But at the present moment, Daniels stands out as a rookie quarterback making history.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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