NFL Divisional Parlay: Our experts make the picks and prop bets to win the weekend

Chris Fallica and 3 more

Contents

Geoff: Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-130)Sammy: Commanders Over 22.5 points (-130) The Bear: Eagles -6 vs Rams (-110)Will: Lamar Jackson over 53.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Divisional Round is here.

The NFL playoffs are well underway, which means there are several ways in which you can wager and make some extra cash this weekend.

But what are the best bets to make? What are the experts saying?

And is there a way where you can turn a couple of these picks into a reasonable parlay?

Well, we’ve got you covered, as our FOX Sports betting analysts have laid out their favorite bets for the divisional-round matchups, creating a four-leg parlay that could win big. All four games have been covered, with both prop bets and team wagers involved.

The parlay below currently has odds of +1041, or just about 10/1. That means a $20 wager could churn you a healthy profit of $208.16, and a $10 bet could earn you $104.07.

So what did the experts have to say? Here’s our Divisional Round parlay, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Geoff: Kelce Over 5.5 receptions (-130)

Travis Kelce had 133 targets and 97 catches during the regular season, which was more than last season and more than 2021. There’s no player who will benefit more from that long break than him, and I’m going to wager on it.

When Kelce is on the field for a playoff game after a week or two of rest, he instantly becomes the top priority in the passing game. He is Patrick Mahomes‘ safe answer for every question. He’s always open, and they have a connection and chemistry unlike any other duo in the NFL.

Since the start of the Chiefs‘ Super Bowl run, dating back to the 2019 season, Kelce has played in eight games when coming off extra rest. He’s been targeted at least six times with at least six receptions in all eight of those games. In the six games that weren’t a Super Bowl game, he’s had at least 10 targets in all of those, with a minimum of seven catches.

I see the pattern holding up for this game on Saturday afternoon.

Sammy: Commanders Over 22.5 points (-130)

A healthy Jayden Daniels should move the ball against this Lions defense. We’ve also seen Dan Quinn morph into an aggressive fourth-down coach with his offense. The Commanders were 20-for-23 on fourth down in the regular season, and they converted two pivotal fourth downs in their wild-card victory against Tampa Bay. You need touchdowns to beat Detroit and I envision Washington keeping its foot on the gas on the Lions’ side of the field.

We need three touchdowns and a field goal to get this one home, which isn’t that tall of a task considering how frantic the pace of this game could be.

The Bear: Eagles -6 vs Rams (-110)

One of three rematches from the regular season in the playoffs, and the Rams will be hoping for a complete 180 from the 37-20 beating they took at SoFi in Week 12.

Actually, it might not have even been that close.

The Eagles outgained the Rams 481-290, averaged 7.1 yards per play, punted once (on the second drive of the game) and saw their offensive line spearhead scoring drives of 12 plays, 10 plays, 10 plays, eight plays and 12 plays.

The Rams just couldn’t get them off the field, as the Eagles went 9-for-15 on third down and Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards.

It feels like a very tough ask for the Rams to head east, off a short game week and a couple of emotionally-charged weeks with everything happening around Los Angeles.

By the way, Sunday’s weather forecast in Philadelphia calls for snow showers, temperatures around 30 degrees and winds at approximately 10-15 mph. These conditions seem like the kind in which the Eagles’ trenches can control the game.

I know Philly’s offense wasn’t great last week against Green Bay, especially Jalen Hurts‘ performance through the air. We’ll see if that was rust or if there are bigger concerns at play. Also, keep in mind that since the playoff format changed five years ago, underdogs that won on Wild Card Weekend are just 1-7 straight up (SU) and 4-4 against the spread (ATS). Since 2015, teams that won as underdogs in the wild card went 7-10 ATS and 2-15 SU.

So it’s asking a lot for the Rams to pull the outright upset for sure.

Will: Lamar Jackson over 53.5 rushing yards (-110)

I’m going back to this same prop that cashed for us with ease last week against the Steelers, and for many of the same reasons. Ravens leading receiver Zay Flowers is uncertain to play again this week, and if he’s out, the Ravens might once again need to rely on Lamar Jackson’s legs to replace that production. Also, when the Ravens throttled the Bills 35-10 in Week 4, Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yards and 8.5 yards per carry, so perhaps he is the Bills’ primary concern this week, which would also open up space and running lanes for Jackson.

Quarterbacks running more than expected is generally a good bet to make in the playoffs. In the long regular season, quarterbacks might throw the ball away or run out of bounds to preserve their health, and avoid taking big hits when there is no play to be made. In the postseason, when it is single elimination, fighting for every possible yard is more prevalent.

Jackson ran for 81 yards last week against a solid Steelers defense, and ran six times for 54 yards against the Bills earlier this season. Going over 53.5 is a solid bet once again.

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