Editor’s Note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups, while providing news, notes, and nuggets for inside access to the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for calling a game.
A LOOK AT AFC MATCHUPS
(4) Houston Texans at (1) Kansas City Chiefs — Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
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The Texans have now played 13 postseason games since 2011, only six teams have more (the Eagles will also be playing their 14th game in that span this weekend). Would it surprise you that among the teams with fewer postseason games played are the Steelers, Bills, Rams and upstate rival Cowboys?
After beating the Chargers, the Texans have six postseason wins since 2011 — only eight teams have more. The Bills, Bengals and Buccaneers also have six.
Under DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have 22 total wins (regular season and postseason) since the start of 2023 — only five teams, topped by the Chiefs with 30, have more.
No matter what happens in this postseason, the Chiefs have further positioned themselves as the “D” word of our time with a 15-win season. This is the 10th straight season that Kansas City has reached double figures in regular season wins. In each of the last six, they have at least reached the conference championship game. With a win against the Texans, they will be one away from the NFL record of eight consecutive conference championship game appearances set by the Patriots between 2011 and 2018 (the year Kansas City’s current run started).
In the last 10 years, the Chiefs have won 139 games (regular season and postseason). With a win Saturday, that would be 14 per year for a decade, easily eclipsing the next team in line, the Bills, who currently have 107.
The Chiefs have been made an 8.5-point favorite over a division champion, a number they have only covered four times in 17 regular season games. It is almost exactly the margin by which they beat the Texans, 27-19, on Christmas Day.
It should be said that in the history of the NFL, 37 teams have won 14 or more games. Only one, the 2024 Chiefs at +59, failed to achieve a positive point differential of +100. This year’s team is either really lucky or really good in the clinches.
CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “Over the past decade, the Chiefs have evolved from a team that outscored you with one of the game’s great offenses to a team that wins tight games in bunches with exceptional defense and clutch scoring. This year’s Chiefs have played 11 one-score games, and won them all. Mahomes and the Chiefs are like pizza … even when it’s bad, it’s still good.
“The Texans will fight hard, and could surprise with a strong rush and a big game from QB C.J. Stroud, but how can you not expect Kansas City to emerge victorious in the end? Andy Reid, a Hall of Fame coach, always has the Chiefs ready to play and they won’t be looking past Houston. The AFC Championship Game should be in Kansas City for the sixth time in the last seven years.”
(3) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Buffalo Bills — Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is the sixth straight season that Buffalo has been in the postseason, and Baltimore has joined the Bills in five of them. But the teams have only met once in that span — Buffalo’s 17-3 home win in the 2020 divisional round, a game in which Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson left the game with a concussion. It is the only time that Sean McDermott’s Bills have advanced to the AFC Championship Game.
With his big game last week, Ravens running back Derrick Henry has pushed his rushing total for the extended season (regular and postseason) to 2,107, his career high. He had 2,067 in 2020 for the Titans. It’s the ninth-best total in an extended season of all time, and with 106 yards on Sunday, will be third behind only two seasons from Terrell Davis. Still, it’s not the best total this season, Saquon Barkley of the Eagles now sits at 2,124.
CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “This is the big one of the weekend, a true heavyweight fight between the two top contenders for the NFL MVP Award, Lamar Jackson of the Ravens and Josh Allen of the Bills. Each is a brilliant runner and passer who elevates their offensive teammates. Both teams have elite rushers in Derrick Henry and James Cook, with capable, but not other-worldly, receivers.
“While both teams defended well last week, neither team’s defense has been dominant. The Bills are average against both the run and pass, while Baltimore has shut down the run while allowing the third-most passing yards. This game should end up with both teams at least in the 20s, and perhaps beyond.
“Rightly or wrongly, this will be a career-defining game for both quarterbacks. The MVP votes have already been counted, but I would think the winner of this game will be regarded as the true MVP, especially if he plays brilliantly.
“The Ravens might be the slightly better team, but Buffalo has the elements and the crowd. The Bills are 6-2 at home in the postseason under Sean McDermott, but John Harbaugh has won eight postseason road games in his time with the Ravens. At home, Josh Allen may be the more MVP-ish.”
AND IN THE NFC…
(6) Washington Commanders at (1) Detroit Lions — Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Last year, the Lions ended an 0-9 run in postseason play dating to the 1991-92 Playoffs, with wins over the Buccaneers and Rams.
Last week, Washington ended an 0-5 run in the playoffs, dating to January 2006, with their win over the Buccaneers.
The Lions are seeking to return to the NFC Championship Game after losing last year to the 49ers. Detroit’s only previous NFCCG appearance was in 1991. The Lions are the only NFC team that has never won an NFC Championship Game or appeared in a Super Bowl. Between 1935 and 1957, the Lions did win four NFL Championship Games.
Washington has appeared in the NFC Championship Game six times, but not since 1992. Every other NFC team has appeared more recently (the next longest drought is the Cowboys, who were last in the NFC title tilt in 1995).
The winning drive against Tampa Bay last week marked the fifth game-winning drive of the extended season for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders had a sixth GWD from Marcus Mariota in Week 18 at Dallas.
The Lions start the postseason with a streak of 15 straight games with 20+ points. They tied the NFL record with six games in which they scored 40+ points. Should they do it again, they would tie the 1994 49ers and the 2011 Saints with the record of seven for an extended season.
Jared Goff has now joined Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to lead two different franchises to seasons with 13 or more wins. He is the sixth to throw 100+ TD passes for multiple franchises.
CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “Having spent time around Jayden Daniels this season calling Commanders games, we saw early that he was already ahead of things and has grown even more. He lives for the pressure point and I would think he will thrive even as the moments become bigger on the NFL postseason stage. If you’re waiting for the rookie to crack… you’ll have to keep waiting.
“But how can you not be impressed with the growth of Jared Goff in his time with the Lions? He has played in many big games and usually comes through with an outstanding performance. And he might have even more weapons to work with than Daniels.
“Teams have seen the success the two Coach Dans have brought to down-trodden franchises. First, Dan Campbell of the Lions and now Dan Quinn with the Commanders have almost instantly used outstanding communication skills to take over rotting situations and establish firm foundations. And both believe in controlling the ball with innovative offenses and bold strategies, especially on fourth down.
“I truly think the Commanders have a great chance if they can shrink the game with ball control and stay within striking distance. They weren’t expected to be here, have a great record in crunch time and are truly playing with house money. That said, the Lions have met almost every challenge for two years and I don’t think in the end they will disappoint their home fans.”
(4) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Philadelphia Eagles — Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Rams (27) and the Eagles (26) rank sixth and seventh, respectively, among NFL teams in their number of postseason wins. At 26-26, the Eagles sit exactly at .500 in postseason play over their history while the Rams are now 27-28 (.491).
The Rams’ best round is the divisionals with an 11-6 record. They are 2-1 under Sean McVay in the divisionals, winning the NFC Championship Game and advancing to the Super Bowl after both of their previous wins.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the active leader with 52 regular season and postseason game-winning drives, including five this season.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has compiled an impressive total of 55 rushing touchdowns in 66 games as a starting QB. Of those, 33 have covered just one yard, as well as two of his five postseason TDs.
On November 24, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley piled up 302 yards from scrimmage (255 rushing, 47 receiving) in Philadelphia’s 37-20 win over the Rams. It’s the highest total of the season and the 10th-best of all time. There has never been a 300-yard game in the yards from scrimmage category in an NFL postseason game (Keith Lincoln of the Chargers had 329 in the 1963 AFC Championship Game). The postseason record for a running back is 244 scrimmage yards by Eric Dickerson of the Rams in 1985.
When an NFL running back compiles 200+ scrimmage yards in a postseason game, their teams are 16-1.
CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “The NFC North has been the best division in football this year, but both of these teams dismantled two of its representatives last week. With Saquon Barkley cooking behind their great line, the Eagles didn’t have to pass the ball much to beat Green Bay. They have the capability to pass, and might have to prove that this week against the much-improved Rams defense.
“The Eagles won the regular season game between these teams in late November as Barkley ran wild. The Rams have won all six games they’ve tried to win since. The defense is improved, but is it improved enough to contain Barkley? If it is, Matthew Stafford has a world of experience and a good cast of weapons. If there’s an upset this weekend… this could be the game. The strategic adjustments between Sean McVay and the Rams’ offense against Vic Fangio and the Eagles’ defense will provide an entertaining game within the game.”
Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning play-by-play announcer, reporter and studio host for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.
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