Super Bowl LIX odds have now had a few days to marinate. And although there’s still more than a week to go — and the overwhelming majority of money won’t come in until game weekend — there are still some interesting early developments.
Not the least of which is that the Kansas City Chiefs are favorites, albeit just slightly, against the Philadelphia Eagles.
But recent history has something to do with it. Kansas City is in the championship game for the fifth time in six seasons and is 3-1 on the previous four trips, winning the last two years. The Chiefs consistently prove themselves on the biggest stage.
“It’s interesting to see how the market is treating the Chiefs. They have the intangibles,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “The clutch factor, which you usually don’t see added in, that’s added in for this game.”
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Chiefs vs. Eagles odds and Super Bowl 59 betting.
NFL Rocks On FOX
For the second time in three seasons, the Super Bowl is on FOX, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 9.
Caesars Sports opened the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites. In short order on Sunday night, the line advanced to Chiefs -1.5, then -2.
“It was interesting to see the Chiefs get up to -2. Would it get to -2.5?” Feazel said, while answering his own question, as the point spread has been stable at K.C. -1.5 since Monday.
Still, there’s a reasonable school of thought that the Eagles could be favored on the Super Bowl oddsboard.
“The Chiefs played really well the past couple of games. But for the season as a whole, they haven’t looked nearly as good as the Eagles,” Feazel said.
Kansas City is 17-2 straight up (SU), but just 9-10 against the spread (ATS). From Weeks 8-14, the Chiefs were 0-7 ATS. Philadelphia is 17-3 SU/13-7 ATS, and over the past 16 games, the Eagles are 15-1 SU and a money-winning 11-5 ATS.
While early action was solidly on Kansas City, Philly has picked up the pace a bit.
“It’s been steady action, still a little more Chiefs than Eagles. But it’s starting to get a little more balanced,” Feazel said. “The public is on the Chiefs, and I don’t think that’s changing.
“We’ve seen some sharper play on the Eagles, which is not a surprise. Last year, we saw sharp play on the 49ers.”
In Super Bowl LVIII, Kansas City — which closed as a 2.5-point underdog — outlasted San Francisco 25-22 in overtime. Two years ago in Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs were 1-point ‘dogs and edged the Eagles 38-35 on a last-second Harrison Butker field goal.
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NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay hasn’t yet made a bet on the game itself on the point spread, moneyline or total. But he’s already jumped on a player proposition bet.
McKay wagered on Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 receiving yards. Demonstrating the importance of betting early for any Over prop, 49.5 is no longer available. BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook are at 51.5 as of Thursday night. Caesars is at 52.5, and FanDuel Sportsbook is at 53.5.
“K.C. has struggled to guard tight ends this season. Goedert is a big weapon, and he will be used against the Chiefs,” McKay said. “He had 60 yards [vs. the Chiefs] two years ago, in Super Bowl LVII.”
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Built For The Futures
Caesars Sports was just fine with the Eagles taking the Washington Commanders to the woodshed last week in a 55-23 blowout. In the Super Bowl futures market, which has been on the board since before last season’s championship game, the Eagles were a good outcome to win it all.
“Going into the playoffs, the Eagles were our best-case scenario. So it’s nice to see them here,” Feazel said. “But the futures really won’t be a factor going into the Super Bowl.”
What Feazel means by that: Caesars’ decision on the futures market will be modest compared with the decision on all other markets available in Super Bowl odds.
Action will be far greater on the game itself — the point spread, moneyline, total, in-game wagering on the two teams, and more. And a mountain of money will come in on all those Super Bowl prop bets.
That’s what will determine whether the public betting masses have a Super Sunday or if Caesars and countless other sportsbooks bank a big win on the Big Game.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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