FOX Sports Research
Everyone loves a good upset.
Cheering for the underdog is fun, and you don’t see them winning too often. But this got us thinking— what were the biggest upsets in the NFL and college football seasons this year?
Did any double-digit underdogs win this year? Is it more common for underdogs to win in college football than in the NFL? If you’re asking these questions, we’ve got you covered.
FOX Sports Research took a dive into the data and broke down the top five biggest upsets in each sport, based off point spread. Did your team make the list?
ADVERTISEMENT
Let’s take a look:
NFL
Cowboys (+10.5) at Commanders, Week 12
The biggest upset of the season when looking at it from a point spread perspective came from the Cowboys in Week 12, taking down the Commanders as 10.5-point underdogs on the road. Cooper Rush finished 24-of-32 with 247 passing yards and two passing scores with no interceptions to upset Washington— who just clinched a playoff berth last week. Since 2022, underdogs of 10+ points are 9-55 straight up (SU) in that span— and just 1-14 in the 2024 season. Through 17 weeks of play, the Cowboys are the only team to have won as a double-digit underdog.
Raiders (+9) at Ravens, Week 2
Baltimore had a slow start to the season, dropping their opening game to the Chiefs and then losing as nine-point favorites to the Raiders in the following week. While you might think upsets are more common earlier in the season, underdogs of nine-or-more points in Week 2 are actually 2-16 since 2015 and 3-36 since 2004. When looking at the Raiders specifically, they are 6-29 SU as underdogs of nine-or-more points in regular season games since the 2010 season.
Patriots (+8) at Bengals, Week 1
Week 1 started off with a big upset, as the Patriots were the favorites to finish with the worst record in the NFL entering the season. Vegas wasn’t wrong, as they’re currently 3-13— which is tied for the worst record through 17 weeks. However, they took down Joe Burrow and the Bengals as eight-point road underdogs in the opening game of the season. Since 2002, New England has only been an underdog of eight-or-more points in ten regular season games— going 2-8 in those contests. The other win came in 2016, when Jimmy Garoppolo got the start against the Cardinals and won as an 8.5-point ‘dog.
Broncos (+8) at Jets, Week 4
While this one might come as a surprise, bookmakers and fans alike didn’t know that the Jets would end up 4-12 on the season entering Week 18. On the other end, no one thought that the Broncos would be 9-7 and fighting for a playoff spot entering the last week of the season. In Week 4, Bo Nix took on the Jets as eight-point road underdogs and won by a point in a game that saw just 19 combined points. Denver has been on a tear against the spread (ATS) this season, going 11-5— tied for the second-best cover rate in the league. The Broncos are 5-22 SU as underdogs of eight-or-more points since 1998, with this being the first such win since 2021.
Titans (+8) at Texans, Week 12
Like a few other teams on this list, the Titans have struggled all year— currently 3-13 on the season, tied for the worst record in the NFL. But Brian Callahan’s squad got a much-needed win in Week 12, taking down the Texans as eight-point road underdogs. Here’s a nugget that should put into perspective just how rare this sort of win was for Tennessee: since 1985, the Titans are 9-43 SU as underdogs of eight-or-more points.
College football
Northern Illinois (+28) at 5 Notre Dame, Week 2
The largest underdog to win in college football this year was Northern Illinois in Week 2, taking down Notre Dame as 28-point underdogs. The Irish loss was their first defeat as a top five team against an unranked opponent since 2002. Entering that game, MAC teams were 0-50 against AP top five teams since 1978— as far back as our odds database goes. It was the first win against a top five team ever in Northern Illinois’ history, as they were 0-14 against top ten teams since 1978.
Liberty at Kennesaw State (+27), Week 9
This was easily one of the greatest upsets in the entirety of the college football season. Liberty entered the matchup as a 27-point favorite against an 0-6 Kennesaw State team. But what makes this upset truly special is that the Owls 2024 season was their first at the FBS level. They lost those six games by an average of 19.3 points per outing and were taking on a Flames team that was not only 5-0, but coming off a 13-0 regular season campaign in 2023. But somehow, Kennesaw State did it. They pulled out a 27-24 victory at home to get their first win as an FBS program.
Vanderbilt (+23.5) at 1 Alabama, Week 6
Maybe the biggest win in program history, Vanderbilt took down No. 1 ranked Alabama as 23.5-point underdogs in a shootout in Week 6. The win was so historical that we’ve listed out several nuggets below to contextualize just how incredible it was:
- Alabama closed as a 23.5-point favorite; this was only the sixth time since 1978 that an AP No. 1 ranked team had lost as a 23+ point favorite, and the first time since 2008.
- AP No. 1 teams that are 23+ point favorites are now 244-6 since 1978.
- Alabama entered the game with a 60-0 record when playing as the AP No. 1 team and being a favorite of 20+ points since 1978.
- Alabama entered the game with a 155-3 record when a 20+ point favorite since 1978 (lost to Georgia Tech (+24) in 1981, LSU (+24) in 1993, and UL Monroe (+24.5) in 2007).
- Alabama lost to an unranked opponent as the AP No. 1 team for just the fourth time ever (lost to Texas A&M in 2021, Mississippi State in 1980, to Georgia Tech in 1962).
- Alabama entered the game with a 60-2 record against unranked opponents when playing as the AP No. 1 team since 1978 (lost to Texas A&M in 2021 and Mississippi State in 1980).
- Vanderbilt is now 1-7 vs the AP No. 1 team since 1978; in those seven losses they scored a combined 44 points (had 40 against Alabama).
- Vanderbilt also picked up their first win vs an AP top five team ever; entered the game 0-60 all-time s vs AP top 5 opponents.
Georgia State (+23) at Texas State, Week 13
Dell McGee’s first season as the head coach of Georgia State was a tough one. The Panthers finished 3-9 on the year and entered their matchup against Texas State on a seven-game losing streak. But despite being 23-point underdogs against the Bobcats, they were able to pull off an eight-point win in a game that saw 96 combined points. They don’t call the Sun Belt conference the “fun belt” for no reason.
Stanford (+21) at 22 Louisville, Week 12
Stanford’s first year in the ACC wasn’t ideal, finishing 3-9 and 2-6 in conference play. But Troy Taylor & Co. got a huge win against 22nd ranked Louisville in Week 12. The win snapped a six-game losing streak and was Stanford’s third and final win of the season. The Cardinal recorded their first win vs an AP-ranked opponent since 2021, and are just 1-14 against top 25 opponents since 2022— with the lone win coming against Louisville. Since 1978, ACC teams that are 20 to 25-point underdogs against fellow ACC teams are 11-127 SU. This was truly a big upset.
