Why this is finally Josh Allen’s moment to take down Patrick Mahomes

Henry McKenna

NFL Reporter

This matchup is better than a plate of chicken wings.

It’s better than a plate of burnt ends.

When Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen square off, they make magic. Historically speaking, Mahomes has made just a little bit more magic than Allen, and that’s why the Bills haven’t beaten the Chiefs in the postseason in the Allen-Mahomes era. Mahomes is 3-0 against Allen in the postseason. And the version of the Bills that beat the Ravens on Sunday night — while impressive — isn’t the version that’s likely to beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

The Bills can win on Sunday, even if they’re underdogs, according to sportsbooks. I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the season started. I’m sticking with it. And it’s not crazy — even knowing what’s happened in past postseasons — because Buffalo beat Kansas City in Week 11, ending the Chiefs’ 15-game winning streak.

Against the Ravens on Sunday, Allen finished with an EPA of 3.2. His completion percentage over expected was -1.8%. The Bills’ 27-25 win was exciting, but Allen’s film was not. He performed no miracles. Yes, yes, he scored a pair of rushing touchdowns. But his contributions as a short-yardage ball carrier are only a small portion of what makes him special. And James Cook or Ray Davis, Buffalo’s fourth-round rookie who had a short-yardage TD of his own, are more than capable of punching the ball in.

Allen’s ho-hum performance was not because he didn’t want to do something remarkable. In fact, we saw that glimmer in his eyes on a goal-line carry in the fourth quarter when the Ravens stopped him and the QB nearly pitched to Cook, but decided — wisely — that the risk was not worth the reward.

A younger version of Allen might have made that pitch. And if the Bills had been in a desperate situation, he might’ve done it. But this game declared itself early: Lamar Jackson didn’t have it. The Ravens never had the lead. Against Baltimore, Allen needed to be a game-manager, which is an important skill for every QB — not just managing the game, but also knowing when and how to avoid catastrophic mistakes. With Lamar and the Ravens coughing up turnovers, Allen seemed to know he could step back and let the Bills carry him to victory.

It won’t be so simple against the Chiefs.

We’ll need to see every facet of Allen’s transcendent talents against Mahomes.

Because while Allen is the better player, Mahomes is the greater player.

What do I mean by that?

Well, it’s largely about third and fourth downs and fourth quarters. It’s largely about working within the rules of the game so that it feels like every call, every deflection, every inch turns in the favor of a great QB’s team. Mahomes is so good at this that people think the refs favor him. (They don’t. Per the AP’s Josh Dubrow, since Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018, the Chiefs have been penalized for 693 more yards than their opponents, playoffs included. That’s the fourth-worst differential in that span.)

But you’ll see, if you log onto X, that people are starting to wonder the same things about Allen that they wonder about Mahomes.

Are they getting preferential treatment from the refs? No, don’t be silly.

The NFL has changed the rules to give more power to the offense — and to the quarterback, in particular. It’s a game of 33 starters and three phases. But everyone knows it’s the quarterback who’s truly in charge. The league has steadily adjusted the game’s design to help quarterbacks take more influence over the game. There seem to be a million ways to commit a roughing the passer penalty — even when the passer isn’t an eligible passer anymore (when a QB is sliding and or running near the sidelines). Violent hitting is far less prevalent over the middle, which gives value to guys like Travis Kelce and Khalil Shakir. And it helps QBs do their best work inside the numbers.

Over the course of this season, we’ve seen Allen take a step toward Mahomes as a game manager. One key breakthrough for Allen was that it’s not enough to simply make big plays. It’s about avoiding negative ones.

This season, the Bills QB has the fewest turnover-worthy plays (15) in his career and the lowest turnover-worthy percentage (2.4%). His big-time throw total (39) isn’t as high as in previous seasons, but his big-time throw percentage (7.1%) is the second-highest of his career. That’s a demonstration of his evolution as a decision-maker.

In fact, there might not be a better decision-maker in the NFL right now than Allen. He just showed he’s better than Lamar. And now he might be about to prove he’s better than Mahomes.

OK, so let’s acknowledge the herd of Buffaloes in the room.

There’s the Bills’ history of sad moments in the postseason: “Wide Right,” “The Music City Miracle” and the infamous 13 seconds. There are the four Super Bowl defeats. In a row. There’s the aforementioned history of Allen losing to Mahomes. That’s a lot to overcome psychologically. The NFL hasn’t figuratively stuffed the Bills into a locker quite like it has the Browns or the Jaguars. But when it comes to postseason history, Buffalo is a second-best kind of organization, which might be more heartbreaking than 32nd-best.

Or maybe there’s no difference. Ricky Bobby’s dad said it best: If you ain’t first, you’re last.

Even with that knowledge of history, the 2024 Bills are built differently. They were built for January and February 2025.

They made changes this offseason and rebuilt their identity for the sake of postseason success, and they’re currently the most physical offense in the NFL. The team’s reliable run game has helped Allen pick his spots more often as a playmaker and avoid risks. The team’s defense doesn’t have any transcendent stars, but they’re a group of players who prove how important continuity can be in the development of talent. This is a group largely composed of draft picks made by GM Brandon Beane, in his role since 2017, for coach Sean McDermott, in his role since 2017. Eight of Buffalo’s 11 defensive starters were acquired in the draft.

Allen no longer has an elite playmaker like Stefon Diggs, but the receiver’s absence has put the QB’s point-guard abilities on display. He’s an even better distributor than we could’ve anticipated. That’s another area of growth we’ve seen from him this year.

It’s hard to bet against Mahomes and the Chiefs, who are working toward a three-peat. But everything is aligning for this to be Allen’s moment.

There’s not a cohesive argument for why the Bills won’t win except: “Mahomes.” To that, I’d respond: “But …. Allen.” In other words, the QBs might someday be equals. Allen can be just as great as Mahomes. But Allen needs to begin to prove that on Sunday.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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