How Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs turn fourth down into their advantage

Henry McKenna

NFL Reporter

NEW ORLEANS — It sometimes seems unfair when Patrick Mahomes gets four downs.

It’s already hard enough to stop him on three downs. But Mahomes proves why he is this generation’s greatest quarterback when the Kansas City Chiefs decide to go for it on what we normally think of as the punting down.

In the moment when things get most difficult — fourth down — Mahomes is at his best.

“A lot of it is his DNA, who he is. He’s always had it in him,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy told FOX Sports. “He does a better job than anybody else in making sure the pressure that moment isn’t too big for him, and that allows him to be able to make successful plays.”

If you look at just about every statistic, you’ll see Mahomes plays better on fourth down than any other down. His expected point average per dropback (.9) dwarfs what he does on third down (.28), second down (.02) and first down (.05).

Because it’s such a small sample size and because fourth down is essentially an extension of third down, you can look at what he does on first and second down with touchdown percentage and interception percentage and yards per attempt, which are, again, lower than what he does on third and fourth down.

But you don’t really need the numbers. You can see it plainly. Mahomes is special — and to opposing defenses, he’s terrifying — on fourth down.

How does he do it?

“It’s kind of like that win-or-go-home mentality that you have for the playoffs,” Mahomes said. “You have to go out there and execute at the highest level in the highest-leveraged positions. I think Coach Reid has prepared us for those moments in training camp and throughout the season. He puts us in situations where you have to make those big plays.”

It makes sense that Mahomes sees fourth down as a single-play version of a playoff game. It gives you a window into the intensity and intentionality with which he approaches those moments.

That’s what makes the down so spectacular and awful. It’s single elimination. It’s a binary: a conversion or a turnover. There’s no gray area.

“Growing up watching Michael Jordan, there’s a good chance he’s going to make a play, he’s going to make a shot,” Nagy said. “I don’t care how, when or where he’s going to do it, and there’s going to be some he misses, but in the end, we know he’s getting the ball and he’s going to make the shot. And I’m not trying to compare Patrick to Michael. But I think there’s some evidence now that what Patrick’s doing in his career at 29 years old, he’s done a lot of good things.”

As Nagy quickly pointed out, the Chiefs don’t simply throw Mahomes out there and ask him to take the shot, so to speak. They plan intentionally for these pressurized moments. Unlike some teams, which save the fourth-down and 2-minute work until the end of the week, the Chiefs work on it on Mondays. In other words, it’s the top priority for the game plan.

The Chiefs have to first determine which plays they’re going to run in those situations. And then they practice them. Generally, they will be plays installed during training camp that’ll come back into the rotation for the week’s opponent, in this case: the Philadelphia Eagles.

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In deciding which plays are best, the coaching staff, with help from Mahomes, weighs two important questions of playcalling. How does K.C. run its very best play? And how does the Chiefs offense exploit the defense’s weakness? The priorities are in that order, with an emphasis on attacking through their points of strength.

Not every team emphasizes preparation in this way — nor do many teams deploy this philosophy.

Think about Bill Belichick, a defensive coach who focused on taking away an opponent’s greatest asset. You’ve got Travis Kelce? The Patriots will double-team him. You’ve got Myles Garrett? Again, New England would double-team him. It’s more complicated than that, of course. But the point is that Belichick tailored his game plans to weaken the opponent.

Reid does it differently, focusing on his team’s strengths, first and foremost.

“Fourth downs have been good for us,” Reid said. “We have trust in our guys, trust in Patrick. And we trust in our game plan. If we’ve got something that we feel is a viable play for that situation, we’re going to use it, within reason. But most of all, having trust in Patrick and the players, is big. And knowing Patrick will take care of the football the right way, whether we’re running it, optioning it or throwing the football.”

When he’s at the line of scrimmage, Mahomes does everything right. He reads the defense, makes the necessary adjustments or audibles and sets his protection.

When he’s in the pocket, he also does everything right. He’s efficient, too. He has completed 24 of his 40 fourth-down attempts and 23 of those passes went for first downs. Similarly, 11 of his 13 carries on fourth down have gone for first downs. He also avoids mistakes. On 40 dropbacks on fourth down during his career, Mahomes has taken only one sack.

But for Mahomes, the play rarely ends in the pocket.

If his progression fails him, there’s the moment that a league executive once told me is Mahomes’ “second act.” It’s when Mahomes blends clarity with creativity. He scrambles, he runs, he eludes defenders. That’s often when his legacy plays happen.

“He’s one of those guys that the play is never over, like he’s always going to extend the play, try to make the big play, even if the play is broken or anything like that,” running back Kareem Hunt said. “He’s falling to the ground, still throwing the ball. It’s just something that you don’t see from many quarterbacks.”

Mahomes makes plays no one else can. And he does it at the game’s most important moments.

“There’s no doubt that you try to appreciate that and not take it for granted,” quarterbacks coach David Girardi said. “When you go back the next day and you’re watching the tape and you’re watching the film, you’re like, ‘Dude, this guy’s special, and you’re so fortunate to have him on your team and for so many reasons.'”

There is no better situational football player in the NFL than Mahomes. He is the archetype of awareness. He is fluent in the flow of the game, and he knows how to control and contain the game in ways that — most of the time — help him get the lead or protect it.

“At big-time moments, these plays he’s making are rare,” Nagy said. “Not everybody has that.”

I can really only think of one other guy: Tom Brady.

But Brady has seven Super Bowls and Mahomes has three.

Perhaps a fourth-down play on Sunday will change that.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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