FOX Sports Research
The NFL’s first-ever Super Bowl three-peat is in sight for the Chiefs, but the Eagles stand in their way.
The teams face off Sunday in Super Bowl LIX from New Orleans’ Caesars Superdome, a rematch of Super Bowl LVII two years ago.
But what are the matchups to watch for, and what analytics truly tell the story of this game? Next Gen Stats, also known as NFL player tracking, has provided such insights for every game since the 2016 season. “NGS” is the capture of real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players’ shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.
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With such a historic Super Bowl matchup upon us, we decided to give you the best Next Gen Stats to know about the big game on Sunday. Let’s take a look:
Cardiac Chiefs
The Chiefs enter Super Bowl LIX having won an NFL-record 17 straight one-possession games. Using Next Gen Stats win probability calculations for each of those games entering the fourth quarter, the chances of Kansas City winning all 17 of those contests is just 0.02%— or about one in 4,480. There’s not much else to say here, as those numbers are just mind-boggling.
K.C. can tackle, and Hunt is can’t be tackled
The strength of Kansas City this season has been their defense, with the unit posting the lowest missed tackle rate in the league this season at 10.7%. In the postseason, that number drops slightly to 8.6%. On the other side of the ball, Kareem Hunt has been a menace on opposing defenses during the playoffs. He’s forced 11 missed tackles on just 25 carries, giving him a 44% missed tackle forced rate— more than twice his average during the regular season (19.6%).
Mahomes likes quick game
While Patrick Mahomes is known for his incredible deep throw accuracy, the two-time MVP has leaned into the quick game over his last four outings, averaging a 2.50-second time to throw— more than a third of a second quicker than in Weeks 1-15 (2.87 seconds). Mahomes led the NFL in both completion percentage (83.6%) and success rate (60.9%) on quick passes during the regular season, the fourth season of his career eclipsing a 60% success rate. This should be an interesting matchup to watch out for, as the Eagles allowed the fewest yards per attempt (5.5) against quick passes this season and will face the third-quickest time to throw overall in the Chiefs at 2.69 seconds.
Spags in his bag
Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is the only coordinator in NFL history to have won four Super Bowls, and also the sole coordinator to win a Super Bowl with two different franchises. He’s excelled throughout his tenure at manipulating protections and creating free pass rush lanes, especially in obvious passing situations. The Chiefs generated 58 unblocked pressures this season, which is the third-most in the NFL. Across three career matchups against Kansas City, Jalen Hurts has faced unblocked pressure at twice the rate against the Chiefs compared to all other defenses— 16.8% vs K.C. compared to 8.0% vs all other defenses in his career.
Big plays coming from Reid and Mahomes
While we mentioned Mahomes & Co. have been thriving with the quick passing game, Andy Reid has saved some tricks up his sleeve for the playoffs. The Chiefs’ explosive play rate in the regular season was 10.6% (ranking 31st in the league), and that number has jumped to 16.8% in the playoffs. A key thing to watch for in this game will be Mahomes’ ability to extend plays on third down and push the ball past the sticks. This season, he had a “past the sticks” rate of 60% when facing third-and-long (seven-plus yards)— the second-best average in the league. His conversion rate on third and long was also second-best in the league at 37.8%. And when looking at his entire career as a starter (since 2018), he ranks first among all quarterbacks in both categories at 59.7% (past the sticks rate) and 36.5% (conversion rate) on third-and-long. Expect some big plays from Reid and the three-time Super Bowl MVP.
A.J. Brown vs press
A.J. Brown has had somewhat of a quiet playoff run, but he did have his best game of the postseason in the NFC Championship— finishing with six catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. But there might not be a better matchup in this game than Brown vs the Chiefs defensive backs. Kansas City led the NFL in press coverage rate in five of six seasons under Spagnuolo, and Brown led the NFL in yards per route vs press coverage this season. He recorded a 37.3% target rate and averaged 3.5 yards per route when facing press coverage (less than three yards of cushion) this season, both of which are the highest marks among receivers with at least 100 routes against press. The Chiefs defense aligned their outside cornerbacks in press on 51.5% of snaps this season, which was the highest rate in the NFL. In Super Bowl LVII, Brown faced press coverage 18 times— tied for his most routes vs press in a game since joining the Eagles in 2022 (including playoffs). He was targeted five times on those 18 routes, totaling 92 yards and a touchdown. Will we see the same on Sunday?
Can’t catch Saquon
It goes without saying that Saquon Barkley has been unstoppable this season, and that his playoff run has been one for the ages. But his explosiveness has truly been something special, as he’s reached 20+ MPH on 11 runs this season— the most in the NFL. He’s also had three such runs in the playoffs, along with three rushing touchdowns of 60+ yards. That is the most by a player in a playoff career, let alone in a single postseason! On the entire season, he has seven touchdown runs of 60+ yards (including playoffs), which is three more than any player has had in any season in NFL history. Entering Super Bowl LIX, he’s at 2,447 rushing yards— just 30 shy of breaking the single-season record held by Terrell Davis (including the playoffs). And here’s one more fun fact for you— Barkley has 442 rushing yards this postseason and is just the fourth player ever to eclipse 365 in a single playoff run. In the previous three instances (John Riggins, Terrell Davis twice), that player went on to win the Super Bowl!
The “Tush Push”
What would be a stats-focused piece involving the Eagles without mentioning the “tush push”? Jalen Hurts led the NFL with 28 first downs on 34 quarterback sneaks this season, maintaining the efficiency of the play even without Jason Kelce at center. When looking specifically at the Eagles success rate on quarterback sneaks with one yard to go for the conversion (first downs and touchdowns), Philly converted on 39 of 48 attempts this season (including the playoffs). Kansas City stopped four of six quarterback sneak attempts against the Bills in the AFC Championship, so watch out for this matchup on Sunday.
Jalen Carter is a beast
The 314-pound Carter has shown rare endurance for his size during the Eagles postseason run, playing in over 90% of snaps. Carter aligns primarily on the left side of the defense(92%) this season, projecting a matchup against right guard Trey Smith. The 23-year-old was named a Second Team All-Pro selection this season, recording seven total sacks when including the postseason. He’s also recorded 12 quarterback pressures in the playoffs, which is the second-most of any player behind his teammate Nolan Smith (13). After struggling to find consistency at left tackle all season, the Chiefs bumped out left guard Joe Thuney, with Mike Caliendo replacing Thuney at left guard. While this has helped improve their blindside protection, the Chiefs have become more vulnerable on the interior— which could pose a huge problem given Carter’s dominance.
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