Now that the NFL has moved to the second wave of free agency, team rosters are beginning to take shape. For many teams that fell short of the playoffs last season, that means a drastic departure from the players they trotted out in recent years. That even includes the San Francisco 49ers, who have moved on from nearly half of the 22 starters who played in the Super Bowl just two years ago.
Since 1990, at least four new teams have reached the postseason each year. We’re projecting five teams this coming season. Let’s take a closer look at our list of surprise teams that will make the playoffs in 2025.
New head coach Ben Johnson understands that the success of an offense starts up front. As offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions, Johnson’s offensive line was ranked No. 4 in the NFL in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus.
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So it’s no surprise that Bears GM Ryan Poles executed trades for Pro Bowl guards Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney and signed free-agent center Drew Dalman to instantly upgrade Chicago’s offensive line. As a rookie last season, QB Caleb Williams was sacked a league-high 68 times.
Defensively, the Bears have added defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo to play opposite Montez Sweat, along with defensive tackle Grady Jarrett to boost the middle of the run defense.
However, the most significant change is the hiring of Johnson, who has shown the ability to create an innovative offense that can take advantage of Williams’ unique skill set. Chicago averaged 18.2 points per game last season, tied for fourth lowest in the league. The Bears have not made the playoffs since 2020 and last won a playoff game in 2010.
Can the new signings help Caleb Williams develop?
After starting 6-3 and building a cushy lead in the NFC South, the Falcons lost six of their last eight games and the division to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was an embarrassing second-half collapse for first-year head coach Raheem Morris.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins was replaced by Michael Penix Jr. during the slide and collected $65 million for 14 games of work. Cousins, who is still owed another $35 million in guaranteed money, remains on the roster as the backup, but he could be shipped to a QB-needy team once Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson decide where they will play this season.
A former defensive coordinator, Morris is focused on improving a defense that allowed 25 points per game in 2024, No. 23 in the NFL. Atlanta finished with just 31 sacks, second fewest in the league. The Falcons added pass-rushing help in 33-year-old edge Leonard Floyd and interior rusher Morgan Fox. Morris coached both players during his time as defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams. The Falcons also added cornerback Mike Ford Jr. and linebacker Divine Deablo, along with re-signing veteran defensive back Mike Hughes.
With improved play from the defense and more explosive plays generated by a Penix-led offense, Atlanta should avoid another second-half swoon and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
New head coach Mike Vrabel was hired to return the Patriots to their winning ways. New England made a handful of splashy moves in free agency to accomplish that, spending more than $140 million in guaranteed money according to Over The Cap, second-most in the NFL.
The most significant of those moves was signing former Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams to a four-year, $104 million deal. A force in the middle of the defense for the Super Bowl champions, Williams should serve as an anchor for New England’s line.
Vrabel also added a player he was familiar with from his time with the Tennessee Titans in pass-rusher Harold Landry. The Patriots finished with a league-worst 28 sacks in 2024. Cornerback Carlton Davis and run-stuffing linebacker Robert Spillane, two additional free-agent signees, should contribute to the defensive rebuild for the Patriots.
A defensive coach, Vrabel should quickly improve a group that gave up 24.5 points per game last season. The Patriots still could use help on offense for second-year QB Drake Maye, including a play-making receiver (they were in on Chris Godwin) and bolstering the offensive line, but Vrabel showed in Tennessee that he can win despite less-than-ideal situations on offense.
Culture-setting new coach Pete Carroll secured a leader who is intimately familiar with his approach and can set the tone on the field for the franchise in QB Geno Smith. Not only can the West Virginia product echo Carroll’s philosophy to the rest of the team, he gives the Raiders a legitimate playmaker at the quarterback position to compete in the AFC West.
The Raiders also locked up one of the NFL’s best defensive players by giving edge rusher Maxx Crosby a three-year, $106.5 million extension that includes $91.5 million in guaranteed money. Carroll understands that the success of his Legion of Boom in Seattle defense started up front, and with Crosby, Christian Wilkins and Malcolm Koonce, the Raiders can cause problems for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Offensively, Raheem Mostert is a good fit for what Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly want to accomplish in the running game. However, the Raiders could still use a field-stretching receiver on the perimeter and another home-run threat at running back. Ashton Jeanty anyone?
The Raiders have not won the AFC West since 2002 and have reached the playoffs just twice in the past decade, but with 73-year-old Carroll’s relentless optimism and team-building, Las Vegas is on track to change that in 2025.
Can Pete Carroll work his magic and turn around the Raiders?
Yes, the rest of the league is shoveling dirt on the 49ers after a disappointing 6-11 season and the loss of players like Deebo Samuel, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward, Aaron Banks and Jordan Mason. But the 49ers still have Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Deommodore Lenoir and Kyle Juszczyk — enough blue-chippers to compete with the best teams in the league.
And once GM John Lynch reaches agreement on a lucrative new deal with Brock Purdy, the 49ers will shift their focus to building a much younger roster around the QB, much like the Rams did a few years ago when they rebounded from a 5-12 campaign after experiencing a Super Bowl hangover.
For now, the key for San Francisco will be how much development they can get from young players like Ricky Pearsall, Renardo Green, Malik Mustapha, Dominick Puni and Isaac Guerendo. The 49ers also have 11 draft picks, including four in the top 100.
If Lynch drafts well, the team’s aging players stay healthy and young players ascend to fill larger roles, the 49ers should be back in the Super Bowl conversation in 2025.
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
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