All good things must come to an end, right?
With his arrival in Kansas City in 2013, Andy Reid created a juggernaut. His 161 wins (including postseason) since then are the most by any head coach in the league. He’s led the Chiefs to three Super Bowl victories, and Kansas City has absolutely owned the AFC West, winning nine straight division titles. Only the New England Patriots have a longer division title streak, with 11 consecutive in the AFC East from 2009 to 2019.
However, the Chiefs’ embarrassing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX could be the Achilles’ heel the rest of the AFC West has been looking for. The Eagles created relentless pressure on Patrick Mahomes using just four rushers and playing sticky coverage in the back end defensively, racing out to a 24-0 halftime lead en route to a 40-22 blowout victory.
Is that a harbinger of things to come for Kansas City? Here are four reasons the Chiefs are primed for a regression, leaving the AFC West up for grabs.
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An aging core
The Chiefs had the fourth-youngest roster in the league after final roster cuts last year, but some of their foundational contributors are getting up there in years. Future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce, who announced he plans to return for another season, turns 36 in October. The team’s best player on defense, interior pass rusher Chris Jones, turns 31 in July. Running back Kareem Hunt, whom the Chiefs brought back early last season, turns 30 in August.
Even Mahomes hits 30 in September, though he certainly still appears to have plenty of elite play in his future. And Kansas City GM Brett Veach has done an excellent job of bringing in and retaining solid young players like linebacker Nick Bolton and offensive guard Trey Smith.
However, like we’ve seen with the San Francisco 49ers recently, the production of the Chiefs’ aging players will continue to fade. Even Mahomes showed that he’s mortal in the loss to Eagles, getting sacked six times and throwing two interceptions.
Offensive line a question mark
Can we really trust that Kansas City’s offseason improvements will lead to a better showing than in the Super Bowl? Keep in mind that the Chiefs just traded one of their best pieces up front, four-time All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, to the Chicago Bears for a fourth-round pick.
Thuney, 32, brought versatility to the offensive line, even though he struggled playing out of position at left tackle in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs signed Trent Williams‘ backup Jaylon Moore to a two-year, $30 million deal to protect Mahomes’ blindside, a significant bet on his potential to grow into the position. The Chiefs also placed the franchise tag on Smith, who pairs with All-Pro center Creed Humphrey to anchor the interior of the offensive line.
However, Kansas City needs developmental prospects like Kingsley Suamataia, Hunter Nourzad and Mike Caliendo, along with potential additions in the 2025 draft, to show promise for the offensive line overhaul to work.
Nick Wright reacts to Chiefs trading All-Pro G Joe Thuney
The Chiefs can’t keep winning one-score games, can they?
Kansas City finished 11-0 in one-score games last season on its way to a 15-2 campaign, taking the top seed in the AFC. Although Mahomes is one of the best closers in league history, it’s unlikely the Chiefs can repeat that success in 2025.
Certainly there are some upsides for Kansas City. The return of receiver Rashee Rice from a season-ending knee injury, along with bringing back Hollywood Brown in free agency and Xavier Worthy having a year of development under his belt should lead to better production in the passing game. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs will continue to have one of the top defenses in the league under the direction of guru Steve Spagnuolo.
However, a regression to the mean in one-score games has to be the expectation in 2025, which means fewer wins during the regular season for the Chiefs — and a lower seed in the postseason.
The rest of the AFC West has improved
Kansas City is 56-16 in the division since Reid took over in 2013, winning at least five out of six games in the AFC West in eight of his 12 years with the Chiefs.
But the days of sleepwalking to a division championship are over.
The Chargers finished 11-6 in Jim Harbaugh’s first season as head coach, and GM Joe Hortiz has another offseason to improve the roster. Expect the Bolts to be even better in Harbaugh’s second season with the organization.
Sean Payton had the Denver Broncos in the playoffs in his second season at the helm. The offensive guru gets a full offseason to tweak his offensive system under second-year quarterback Bo Nix. The Broncos should also be better in 2025.
In hiring the ageless Pete Carroll, the Raiders now have a head coach who won a Super Bowl and knows how to build a team. Las Vegas traded for a competent quarterback in Geno Smith and signed star edge rusher Maxx Crosby to high-dollar extension as the defense’s foundational piece. Things are finally starting to look up for the Raiders.
That might not be the case for the Chiefs in 2025.
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